Miami Projections

While Roger Federer still holds a very slight edge in my hard-court rankings, Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win in Miami.  My simulation gives the Serbian a 27.4% chance of winning back-to-back tournaments, while Federer comes in at 19.7%.

For more background on how I generate these projections, click here.  I’ve tweaked the system a bit since then; most notably, I discovered that my rankings were slightly underrating the chances of younger players and overrating those of older players.  I’ve adjusted my forecasts accordingly.

Enjoy!

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W 
(1)Rafael Nadal      100% 84% 76.8% 62.0% 48.8% 28.5% 14.3% 
Jeremy Chardy        50%   9%  5.2%  2.3%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
Kei Nishikori        50%   8%  4.5%  1.9%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% 
Feliciano Lopez      69%  43%  7.3%  2.7%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% 
Richard Berankis     31%  12%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(26)Juan I Chela     100% 45%  4.8%  1.4%  0.4%  0.0%  0.0% 
(21)Dolgopolov       100% 74% 40.0% 12.8%  5.8%  1.7%  0.4% 
Andreas Seppi        52%  14%  4.3%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mischa Zverev        48%  12%  3.7%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Teymuraz Gabashvili  44%   9%  2.4%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Daniel Brands        56%  13%  3.6%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(15)JW Tsonga        100% 78% 45.9% 14.4%  7.5%  2.6%  0.6% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(11)Nicolas Almagro  100% 87% 54.4% 25.3%  8.3%  2.7%  0.6% 
Federico Gil         61%  10%  2.8%  0.4%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Paul Capdeville   39%   4%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Leonardo Mayer       35%  12%  3.6%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Ivo Karlovic     65%  30% 11.7%  4.2%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0% 
(20)Albert Montanes  100% 58% 26.7%  9.5%  2.5%  0.6%  0.1% 
(28)Ernests Gulbis   100% 91% 34.6% 17.1%  5.0%  1.3%  0.3% 
Carlos Berlocq       82%   8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Jack Sock        18%   1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Adrian Mannarino     72%  11%  3.5%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ramirez Hidalgo      28%   0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(7)Tomas Berdych     100% 89% 61.4% 41.5% 17.4%  7.5%  2.3% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(3)Roger Federer     100% 92% 80.4% 64.1% 50.0% 34.3% 19.7% 
Fabio Fognini        39%   3%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Radek Stepanek       61%   5%  2.5%  0.9%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% 
Sergiy Stakhovsky    56%  18%  1.8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Grigor Dimitrov   44%  11%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(32)Juan Monaco      100% 70% 13.0%  5.5%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1% 
(22)Marcos Baghdatis 100% 85% 54.0% 18.1%  9.6%  4.0%  1.1% 
Blaz Kavcic          43%   7%  1.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Olivier Rochus    57%   8%  2.2%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Pere Riba            39%   6%  0.8%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Yen-Hsun Lu          61%  14%  2.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(13)Mikhail Youzhny  100% 81% 38.9%  9.7%  4.3%  1.4%  0.3% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(10)Jurgen Melzer    100% 76% 37.0% 16.3%  4.8%  1.8%  0.4% 
Philipp Petzschner   64%  18%  3.9%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Florent Serra        36%   6%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Janko Tipsarevic     57%  15%  6.5%  2.2%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Robin Haase          43%   7%  2.5%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(18)Marin Cilic      100% 78% 49.1% 26.4%  9.1%  4.0%  1.2% 
(25)Gilles Simon     100% 78% 34.7% 16.9%  4.7%  1.4%  0.3% 
(WC)Ryan Harrison    62%  17%  3.7%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Rainer Schuettler 38%   5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Pablo Cuevas         52%  10%  3.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Michael Berrer       48%   6%  2.0%  0.5%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(8)Andy Roddick      100% 83% 55.3% 33.9% 13.5%  6.4%  2.3% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(6)David Ferrer      100% 96% 65.3% 40.1% 18.5%  5.9%  2.5% 
(q)Robert Kendrick   49%   2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Igor Kunitsyn     51%   2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Somdev Devvarman     49%   6%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Potito Starace       51%   8%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(31)Milos Raonic     100% 86% 32.6% 16.0%  5.9%  1.6%  0.5% 
(23)Michael Llodra   100% 67% 26.5%  9.1%  2.6%  0.5%  0.1% 
Xavier Malisse       67%  25%  5.6%  1.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Ryan Sweeting     33%   8%  1.4%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Benjamin Becker      54%   9%  3.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Marcel Granollers    46%   8%  2.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(12)Stan Wawrinka    100% 83% 60.3% 32.1% 14.5%  4.5%  1.8% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(14)Mardy Fish       100% 73% 40.4% 12.3%  5.5%  1.4%  0.4% 
Julien Benneteau     61%  18%  6.0%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% 
Gimeno-Traver        39%   8%  1.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ivan Ljubicic        85%  39% 19.3%  4.8%  1.7%  0.3%  0.1% 
(q)Paolo Lorenzi     15%   1%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(17)Richard Gasquet  100% 60% 32.3%  9.5%  4.0%  0.8%  0.2% 
(29)Kohlschreiber    100% 16%  5.1%  2.2%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0% 
(PR)Del Potro        100% 83% 50.8% 38.6% 25.8% 11.5%  6.1% 
Richardo Mello       0%    0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Ivan Dodig           38%   5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Andrey Golubev       62%  12%  1.6%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(4)Robin Soderling   100% 84% 42.1% 31.0% 20.1%  8.5%  4.2% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(5)Andy Murray       100% 99% 87.6% 65.1% 30.5% 18.9% 10.8% 
Victor Hanescu       55%   0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Alex Bogomolov    45%   0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Santiago Giraldo     56%  21%  2.4%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Igor Andreev         44%  15%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(30)John Isner       100% 65%  8.9%  3.5%  0.5%  0.2%  0.0% 
(24)Garcia-Lopez     100% 35% 15.9%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% 
Nikolay Davydenko    87%  61% 39.6% 15.1%  4.9%  2.3%  1.0% 
Kevin Anderson       13%   3%  0.8%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)Bernard Tomic    68%  11%  1.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Pablo Andujar        32%   3%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(9)Verdasco          100% 86% 41.5% 12.0%  3.1%  1.1%  0.4% 

Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W
(16)Viktor Troicki   100% 77% 43.0%  5.9%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1% 
Tobias Kamke         51%  13%  3.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Marsel Ilhan      49%  10%  2.6%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
Jarkko Nieminen      59%  22%  9.6%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Mikhail Kukushkin    41%  12%  4.1%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
(19)Sam Querrey      100% 66% 37.4%  6.6%  1.9%  0.5%  0.1% 
(27)Thomaz Bellucci  100% 69%  8.5%  3.9%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0% 
(q)Michael Russell   31%   7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(WC)James Blake      69%  25%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(q)Donald Young      47%   3%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% 
Denis Istomin        53%   0%  0.2%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% 
(2)Novak Djokovic    100% 97% 89.7% 81.5% 55.9% 41.2% 27.4%

4 thoughts on “Miami Projections”

  1. I was surprised to see that you predicted Del Potro had a 100% chance of defeating Ricardo Mello. Was that because Del Potro had already won their match by the time you published your predictions?

    1. Yep, that caught my eye too. It was actually 99.55%, but there wasn’t room to fit all those columns with the extra significant digit.

  2. Thanks for the explanation! As a fan of JMDP I am gratified, but that’s nothing compared to the relief I feel at having the paradox resolved. Had Del Potro’s chance of winning been exactly 100% a priori, and had he been unable to complete the match for any reason, the universe might have collapsed.

    😎

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