Milos on clay: The Monte Carlo draw isn’t entirely set, with a few qualifying matches left to play, but the first round is already underway. Hometown hero Ivan Ljubicic kicked things off with a 6-1 6-2 trouncing of Jeremy Chardy, and Milos Raonic has just won his first ATP-level match on clay against Michael Llodra.
And a weird, weird match it was. Unfortunately the ATP website doesn’t appear to have posted stats for the match; we’ll have to stick with “weird” based only on the final score of 6-3 0-6 6-0. Raonic displayed some inconsistency at Indian Wells, and it’s easy to imagine Llodra posting a result like this.
Still, it’s a good start for the Canadian. With no points to defend, even a modest level of success in the clay season will keep him heading up the rankings. Next, he’ll face either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Ernests Gulbis.
ATP finals: Today, Potito Starace plays Pablo Andujar for the championship in Casablanca. After that match, Starace is slated to head to Monte Carlo for an opening round match against a qualifier. What makes this noteworthy is that, among the four finalists this week, Starace is the only one who even made the cut for the main draw in Monte Carlo. Andujar intended to play qualifying before his success this week prevented it.
Starace just barely got past Victor Hanescu to reach the final, needing a third-set tiebreak to do so. Andujar’s semi, against top seed Albert Montanes, was just as topsy-turvy, despite the more pedestrian score of 6-4 6-4. The match included 29 break points, including 16 chances for Montanes. Alas, Montanes only seized three chances while Andujar took advantage of 5 of 13, and that was the difference.
Oddsmakers give Starace the edge here, with about a 57% chance of winning. Based solely on rankings and results, the Italian is better than that. But Andujar’s recent results suggest he could be primed for the upset.
In Houston, the final will be decided between Kei Nishikori and Ryan Sweeting. Both won yesterday in straight sets, Sweeting out-serving Ivo Karlovic to accomplish the feat. Nishikori got past Pablo Cuevas despite missing more than half of his first serves. Cuevas was more successful with his first offerings, but he won only half of his service points, a rate that isn’t going to win you any matches, no matter what the surface.
Normally, the appearance of a wild card in the final of an ATP-level event would be attention-grabbing. Given the results of U.S. tournaments so far this year, it’s getting to be a habit. Raonic reached the final in Memphis on a wild card, and Juan Martin del Potro, also on a WC, came one match short of the same mark.
As great a story as it would be if Sweeting won his first ATP title, the odds are against it. Sportsbooks suggest that Nishikori has a 69% chance of winning today, and my clay rankings say 73%. Nishikori has had the superior tournament, as well, knocking out the top seed Mardy Fish as well as two guys, Cuevas and Igor Andreev, who can be formidable on clay.
When in Rome: One more note for today. The main draw for next week’s Rome challenger is set, and it’s one of the strongest challenger-level fields of the year, including many of the young players who have excelled so far this season.
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe came through qualifying (the last time he’ll have to do so at this level, I hope), and will face what, sadly, is a cupcake draw: yet another wild card appearance for Thomas Muster. Stebe’s nemesis from the Asian swing, Uladzimir Ignatik, got the opposite treatment, as he’ll begin his tournament against top seed Andreas Haider-Maurer. Also in the draw are youngsters-to-watch Evgeny Donskoy, Thomas Schoorel, and Martin Klizan.
As soon as the qualifiers are placed in the Monte Carlo draw, I’ll post some tournament odds. That’ will probably be later today, so be sure to check back in.