Kohl down: A couple of days ago, I suggested that Roger Federer might have his hands full with a second-round matchup against Philipp Kohlschreiber. While Kohlschreiber looked great in Indian Wells, knocking out Robin Soderling and nearly upsetting Juan Martin del Potro, he didn’t do much to justify my optimism this week. He just barely made it past Andrey Golubev, and earlier today, lost to Federer, winning only three games and 36% of total points.
Federer has gotten a head start on the pack, becoming the first man into the round of 16, and one of only two of the top eight seeds in action today. (The other is Tomas Berdych, who will take on Olivier Rochus later.) Federer’s section of the draw is distinctly unchallenging; his likely next opponent is Marin Cilic, and after that, he’s seeded to play Jurgen Melzer (or, very possibly Nicholas Almagro). If he reaches the semifinal, we could be treated to an interesting contrast of clay-court styles, as his probable opponent is either David Ferrer or Fernando Verdasco.
Sets up: There haven’t been a lot of upsets so far in the first round, but a slew of matches have gotten interesting. Among yesterday’s 13 first-rounders, 7 went to a deciding set. Already today, three more have done so, including the clash between Feliciano Lopez and Janko Tipsarevic, which Lopez won in a third-set tiebreak. Ivan Ljubicic has just taken the first set from Jo-Wilfriend Tsonga, which means we’ll either see an upset or yet another three-setter.
A fascinating match still on tap for today is a second-rounder between Ernests Gulbis and Milos Raonic. As I mentioned yesterday, Gulbis had an excellent clay season last year, even if his dreadful recent results tend to camouflage them. Raonic, of course, has virtually no history on the surface, yet it didn’t stop him from advancing past Michael Llodra. Oddsmakers give Gulbis a 67% chance of winning, which is almost exactly what my system says, as well.
Five challengers: Thanks to the small Monte Carlo draw, plenty of top-100 players are contesting challengers this week. There are five of them, meaning that the talent is spread fairly thin. As I noted over the weekend, the top tourney is in Rome, where a handful of youngsters are in the field. That event has already seen a major upset, as Serbian qualifier Boris Pashanski knocked out #2 seed Bjorn Phau. Top seed Andreas Haider-Maurer also has his hands full with an opening matchup against Uladzimir Ignatik.
In Athens, the field is not as strong, but two good players anchor the draw. Benjamin Becker is the top seed, while Dmitri Tursunov is #2. In Brazil, the tournament in Blumenau keeps the South American clay circuit going. Tiago Fernandes, the surprise finalist last week, is in the draw, as are the winners from two weeks ago in Barletta and Barranquilla, Aljaz Bedene and Facundo Bagnis. There’s also plenty of experience there, as the field includes Martin Vassallo Arguello, Jose Acasuso, and Nicholas Massu.
Plenty of notable Americans are playing at the Tallahassee event, including wild card James Blake and fourth-seed Ryan Sweeting. Also of interest is a first-round match between wild cards Denis Kudla and Michael Shabaz, as well as the presence of Wayne Odesnik, who qualified. Finally, Dustin Brown highlights the field in Johannesburg, the weakest of the five events at this level. Clearly, there will be plenty of tennis to follow this week.
See you tomorrow!