The draw looked odd this morning — Andy Murray and Viktor Troicki were still in the fourth round, while Novak Djokovic was safely in the semis following Fabio Fognini’s withdrawal. (Djokovic’s odds of advancing didn’t change much with Fognini’s withdrawal!)
Now that things are back to normal, we can update the odds. My rankings make Novak the 2-1 favorite to reach the final over Federer–probably a little optimistic for Roger, but you have to admit, the Swiss has looked surprisingly good this week. Largely thanks to Djokovic, there’s a 60% chance that the tournament winner comes from the bottom half.
Here are the odds for the remaining players:
Player SF F W (1)Rafael Nadal 68.9% 49.6% 24.9% (5)Robin Soderling 31.1% 17.1% 5.1% (4)Andy Murray 86.8% 32.1% 10.0% Juan Ignacio Chela 13.2% 1.1% 0.1% (3)Roger Federer 100.0% 33.1% 16.2% (2)Novak Djokovic 100.0% 66.9% 43.8%