After several days of delays in qualifying, the Wimbledon main draws are finally complete. As expected, Novak Djokovic is the favorite, with a 21.6% chance of winning. Federer is next, at 14.3%, and Nadal is close behind, at 13.6%. It’s Rafa’s turn to line up against dark horse Juan Martin del Potro–they are positioned for a fourth-round clash.
A few other notes about the draw:
- It’s easy to imagine that all qualifiers are alike, but my system has no respect for Frenchman Kenny De Schepper. He has less a 10% shot at beating Olivier Rochus.
- Speaking of qualifiers, Marinko Matosevic drew 25th-seed Juan Ignacio Chela, whose ranking is largely due to his strong performance (and weak draw) in Paris. Chela is not much of a hard court threat, so while Matosevic is hardly a threat in his own right, the Aussie is favored.
- The Matosevic/Chela matchup could also benefit an American. Alex Bogomolov and Donald Young will play for a chance to face the winner of Matosevic/Chela, giving either US player a good chance of reaching the third round. After that it’s Tomas Berdych, and it’s probably over.
- Several qualifiers are favored to reach the second round, partly because of a few Q vs. Q (or Q vs. lucky loser) matchups. One such qualifier is Lukasz Kubot, who I predict will beat wild card Arnaud Clement.
- Another one? Ryan Harrison, in as a LL, faces Ivan Dodig. Dodig has climbed the rankings this season, but my system puts him a tiny margin behind the American.
- Of the top four, Roger Federer has the easiest route to the semis. It looks like David Nalbandian in the third, Almagro, Youhzny, or maybe Isner in the fourth, and Ferrer or Tsonga in the quarters.
Here is the full breakdown:
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(1)Rafael Nadal 92.9% 84.1% 68.2% 13.60%
Michael Russell 7.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.00%
Pablo Andujar 27.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.00%
Ryan Sweeting 72.2% 10.7% 4.1% 0.02%
Gilles Muller 74.2% 21.8% 3.6% 0.01%
Tommy Haas 25.8% 3.4% 0.2% 0.00%
Fabio Fognini 27.5% 16.7% 3.1% 0.02%
(31)Milos Raonic 72.5% 58.0% 19.4% 0.65%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(24)Juan Martin Del Potro 90.4% 73.9% 57.8% 7.49%
Flavio Cipolla 9.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.00%
Olivier Rochus 90.1% 21.9% 10.4% 0.05%
Kenny De Schepper 9.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.00%
Frederico Gil 42.4% 12.8% 2.4% 0.00%
Dudi Sela 57.6% 22.4% 5.2% 0.03%
Edouard Roger-Vasselin 23.7% 10.1% 2.1% 0.00%
(15)Gilles Simon 76.3% 54.8% 21.0% 0.52%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(10)Mardy Fish 71.4% 48.3% 33.1% 1.81%
Marcel Granollers 28.6% 13.0% 6.3% 0.03%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 64.3% 28.3% 16.1% 0.27%
Denis Istomin 35.7% 10.3% 4.2% 0.01%
Robin Haase 67.8% 21.3% 6.0% 0.01%
Pere Riba 32.2% 5.8% 0.9% 0.00%
Radek Stepanek 39.8% 27.0% 11.7% 0.10%
(21)Fernando Verdasco 60.2% 45.8% 21.7% 0.45%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(25)Juan Ignacio Chela 44.2% 15.9% 3.6% 0.00%
Marinko Matosevic 55.8% 24.6% 6.1% 0.00%
Donald Young 52.5% 31.6% 10.8% 0.02%
Alex Bogomolov Jr 47.5% 27.9% 8.4% 0.02%
Ruben Bemelmans 34.4% 7.4% 3.2% 0.00%
Julien Benneteau 65.6% 21.2% 12.7% 0.06%
Filippo Volandri 6.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.00%
(6)Tomas Berdych 93.7% 70.3% 55.0% 2.47%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(4)Andy Murray 87.9% 77.2% 57.4% 9.55%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver 12.1% 6.2% 2.0% 0.00%
Tobias Kamke 47.4% 7.5% 2.2% 0.00%
Blaz Kavcic 52.6% 9.0% 2.8% 0.01%
Sergiy Stakhovsky 83.3% 26.2% 6.6% 0.04%
Daniel Cox 16.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.00%
Ivan Ljubicic 39.3% 26.1% 9.4% 0.17%
(27)Marin Cilic 60.7% 46.0% 19.5% 1.02%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(17)Richard Gasquet 70.1% 54.5% 26.9% 0.66%
Santiago Giraldo 29.9% 17.9% 5.8% 0.01%
Igor Kunitsyn 47.3% 12.4% 3.0% 0.00%
Igor Sijsling 52.7% 15.2% 4.0% 0.00%
Martin Fischer 56.4% 10.6% 3.3% 0.00%
Simone Bolelli 43.6% 6.5% 1.6% 0.00%
Potito Starace 10.6% 4.8% 1.2% 0.00%
(14)Stanislas Wawrinka 89.4% 78.1% 54.2% 3.00%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(9)Gael Monfils 77.0% 61.6% 43.5% 2.31%
Matthias Bachinger 23.0% 12.1% 5.3% 0.02%
Grega Zemlja 42.6% 10.0% 3.7% 0.01%
Lukas Lacko 57.4% 16.3% 6.9% 0.02%
Arnaud Clement 42.5% 12.3% 3.1% 0.00%
Lukasz Kubot 57.5% 19.9% 6.1% 0.01%
Ivo Karlovic 39.5% 24.6% 10.5% 0.06%
(23)Janko Tipsarevic 60.5% 43.2% 20.9% 0.28%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(30)Thomaz Bellucci 71.0% 34.8% 13.8% 0.10%
Rainer Schuettler 29.0% 8.2% 1.9% 0.00%
Feliciano Lopez 63.3% 39.1% 16.3% 0.16%
Michael Berrer 36.7% 17.9% 5.9% 0.02%
Jaroslav Pospisil 26.3% 2.6% 0.4% 0.00%
Victor Hanescu 73.7% 16.6% 5.9% 0.00%
Andreas Beck 17.3% 9.6% 3.4% 0.00%
(8)Andy Roddick 82.7% 71.1% 52.3% 2.71%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(7)David Ferrer 83.8% 59.7% 42.0% 1.80%
Benoit Paire 16.2% 5.3% 1.8% 0.00%
Ivan Dodig 49.2% 17.0% 8.5% 0.04%
Ryan Harrison 50.8% 18.0% 9.3% 0.07%
Carlos Berlocq 28.6% 4.2% 0.5% 0.00%
Karol Beck 71.4% 20.6% 5.2% 0.00%
Andrey Golubev 36.1% 24.6% 9.2% 0.04%
(26)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 63.9% 50.5% 23.4% 0.35%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(22)Alexandr Dolgopolov 82.7% 70.5% 38.6% 1.21%
Fernando Gonzalez 17.3% 9.6% 2.4% 0.00%
Rik De Voest 72.0% 16.7% 3.8% 0.01%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 28.0% 3.2% 0.4% 0.00%
Grigor Dimitrov 75.1% 25.1% 11.0% 0.07%
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 24.9% 4.1% 1.0% 0.00%
Go Soeda 18.0% 7.4% 2.4% 0.00%
(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 82.0% 63.4% 40.5% 2.10%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(16)Nicolas Almagro 60.6% 32.7% 16.9% 0.19%
Jarkko Nieminen 39.4% 17.3% 7.5% 0.04%
John Isner 71.0% 39.5% 20.5% 0.24%
Nicolas Mahut 29.0% 10.5% 3.5% 0.00%
Somdev Devvarman 63.0% 20.5% 8.2% 0.03%
Denis Gremelmayr 37.0% 8.2% 2.4% 0.00%
Juan Monaco 47.6% 33.1% 17.7% 0.24%
(18)Mikhail Youzhny 52.4% 38.2% 23.2% 0.46%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(28)David Nalbandian 76.7% 58.3% 19.2% 0.53%
Julian Reister 23.3% 11.1% 1.6% 0.00%
Florent Serra 53.1% 16.7% 2.5% 0.00%
Andreas Haider-Maurer 46.9% 13.8% 1.9% 0.00%
Adrian Mannarino 73.0% 17.0% 9.4% 0.12%
Conor Niland 27.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.00%
Mikhail Kukushkin 13.5% 6.3% 3.0% 0.02%
(3)Roger Federer 86.5% 73.8% 61.4% 14.27%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(5)Robin Soderling 75.8% 52.9% 36.8% 3.13%
Philipp Petzschner 24.2% 10.5% 4.8% 0.06%
Kei Nishikori 57.3% 22.1% 11.6% 0.25%
Lleyton Hewitt 42.7% 14.4% 6.8% 0.08%
Igor Andreev 56.6% 19.3% 5.6% 0.02%
Teymuraz Gabashvili 43.4% 11.9% 2.8% 0.00%
Bernard Tomic 32.5% 19.2% 6.5% 0.06%
(29)Nikolay Davydenko 67.5% 49.6% 25.2% 1.28%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(20)Florian Mayer 83.0% 55.7% 33.4% 0.83%
Daniel Evans 17.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.00%
Xavier Malisse 53.4% 21.2% 9.4% 0.05%
Mischa Zverev 46.6% 17.9% 7.3% 0.02%
Ernests Gulbis 51.0% 24.1% 11.6% 0.07%
Dmitry Tursunov 49.0% 22.4% 9.9% 0.06%
Alejandro Falla 27.8% 11.2% 3.8% 0.01%
(11)Jurgen Melzer 72.2% 42.3% 23.2% 0.43%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(13)Viktor Troicki 87.5% 56.2% 36.7% 0.74%
Maximo Gonzalez 12.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.00%
Yen-Hsun Lu 35.6% 11.8% 5.0% 0.01%
Tommy Robredo 64.4% 29.6% 17.2% 0.10%
Ricardo Mello 41.9% 11.6% 2.9% 0.00%
Frank Dancevic 58.1% 20.6% 6.8% 0.01%
James Ward 36.7% 21.7% 8.3% 0.02%
(19)Michael Llodra 63.3% 46.0% 22.5% 0.26%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
(32)Marcos Baghdatis 79.3% 56.1% 17.8% 1.10%
James Blake 20.7% 8.7% 1.2% 0.00%
Andreas Seppi 49.1% 17.4% 3.1% 0.02%
Albert Montanes 50.9% 17.8% 3.0% 0.03%
Kevin Anderson 60.7% 10.8% 4.6% 0.04%
Illya Marchenko 39.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.00%
Jeremy Chardy 13.4% 8.2% 4.1% 0.09%
(2)Novak Djokovic 86.6% 76.5% 64.7% 21.58%
It’s fascinating to speculate how different the tournament would look if these predictions of your were used for seeding and the draw. The obvious difference is Del Potro, who would become the #5 seed, displacing Soderling. It’s quite impressive, too, to see just how few players have a practical chance of winning.