If last week’s tournament in Montreal taught us anything, it’s that predicting the outcome of ATP matches is a fool’s errand. With that in mind, let’s see what the draw has in store for us in Cinci!
The draw this week is what the Master’s series is all about. With the exception of a couple of late withdrawals (Tsonga?) that may yet come down the pike, nearly every top player in the men’s game is in Cincinnati. Andy Roddick is trying to return from injury; David Ferrer makes his summer hard-court debut, and we’re already set for a Federer/del Potro showdown in the second round.
Del Potro’s mere presence makes every tournament a little more interesting. He’s laid a couple of eggs recently, losing to Gulbis and Cilic, but he tore up the spring hard court circuit and lost only to the best of the best on clay. My ranking system still gives him a lot of respect, keeping him within the top five, which makes Federer’s route to the semifinals (heck, the third round!) look particularly challenging.
Djokovic (who, once again, is in Fed’s half) could face a slew of Americans on their home turf. His probable second-round opponent is Ryan Harrison, who I favor heavily over Juan Ignacio Chela. After that, it’s easy to see John Isner in the third round, and possibly Andy Roddick in the quarters. It’s theoretically possible, but a little less likely that another American, James Blake, will make it through the semis to be Novak’s opponent in that round.
Here is my full projection. For purity’s sake, it doesn’t reflect the results of today’s two matches, in which Delpo and Blake both advanced.
Player R32 R16 QF W (1)Novak Djokovic 100.0% 90.1% 74.4% 29.61% (WC)Ryan Harrison 71.5% 8.6% 3.2% 0.07% Juan Ignacio Chela 28.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.00% (q)Radek Stepanek 43.6% 18.2% 3.0% 0.09% John Isner 56.4% 24.7% 5.0% 0.24% Andrey Golubev 23.2% 8.4% 1.0% 0.02% (16)Stanislas Wawrinka 76.8% 48.7% 13.0% 1.41% Player R32 R16 QF W (11)Andy Roddick 63.7% 43.3% 23.0% 1.34% Philipp Kohlschreiber 36.3% 20.8% 9.1% 0.24% Juan Carlos Ferrero 23.9% 4.3% 0.9% 0.00% Feliciano Lopez 76.1% 31.6% 13.3% 0.29% Ivan Dodig 39.4% 10.9% 3.9% 0.05% (q)Ernests Gulbis 60.6% 24.3% 11.6% 0.32% (6)Gael Monfils 100.0% 64.9% 38.2% 2.22% Player R32 R16 QF W (3)Roger Federer 100.0% 58.9% 44.5% 10.38% Juan Martin del Potro 82.9% 38.8% 27.9% 5.00% Andreas Seppi 17.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.01% (WC)James Blake 23.3% 8.1% 1.1% 0.01% Marcos Baghdatis 76.7% 46.2% 15.2% 1.02% Fabio Fognini 26.1% 7.6% 0.9% 0.01% (14)Viktor Troicki 73.9% 38.1% 9.6% 0.40% Player R32 R16 QF W (9)Nicolas Almagro 62.0% 32.1% 14.0% 0.25% Albert Montanes 38.0% 13.8% 4.0% 0.03% Ivo Karlovic 32.6% 14.0% 4.6% 0.04% Florian Mayer 67.4% 40.2% 18.2% 0.56% Tommy Haas 13.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.00% Juan Monaco 86.8% 28.8% 13.9% 0.21% (8)Tomas Berdych 100.0% 70.4% 45.3% 2.43% Player R32 R16 QF W (5)David Ferrer 100.0% 75.5% 44.7% 2.52% (q)Marsel Ilhan 38.3% 7.5% 1.9% 0.00% (WC)Grigor Dimitrov 61.7% 17.0% 6.0% 0.05% Janko Tipsarevic 70.3% 31.7% 15.3% 0.43% (q)Edouard Roger-Vasselin 29.7% 8.2% 2.2% 0.01% Jurgen Melzer 44.2% 25.0% 12.0% 0.35% (10)Gilles Simon 55.8% 35.2% 17.9% 0.72% Player R32 R16 QF W (15)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 57.2% 46.4% 19.8% 2.28% Marin Cilic 42.8% 32.7% 12.2% 0.85% (q)Alex Bogomolov Jr 57.7% 13.7% 3.0% 0.04% (WC)Robby Ginepri 42.3% 7.2% 1.1% 0.01% (q)Kei Nishikori 46.5% 10.6% 4.5% 0.14% David Nalbandian 53.5% 13.1% 5.9% 0.27% (4)Andy Murray 100.0% 76.3% 53.6% 10.62% Player R32 R16 QF W (7)Mardy Fish 100.0% 63.6% 42.6% 3.59% Nikolay Davydenko 68.5% 28.8% 16.7% 0.99% Sergiy Stakhovsky 31.5% 7.6% 3.0% 0.04% Xavier Malisse 55.4% 21.5% 6.7% 0.11% Kevin Anderson 44.6% 15.4% 4.5% 0.04% Alexandr Dolgopolov 47.8% 29.6% 12.4% 0.39% (12)Richard Gasquet 52.2% 33.4% 14.0% 0.52% Player R32 R16 QF W (13)Mikhail Youzhny 54.6% 28.3% 7.7% 0.41% Michael Llodra 45.4% 20.5% 4.9% 0.17% Thomaz Bellucci 36.9% 15.1% 3.1% 0.05% Fernando Verdasco 63.1% 36.0% 10.4% 0.61% Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 60.5% 13.3% 6.3% 0.19% (q)Julien Benneteau 39.5% 4.9% 1.8% 0.03% (2)Rafael Nadal 100.0% 81.8% 65.8% 18.36%