Continuing with our point-by-point player profiles, let’s look at Roger Federer. Despite a down year, his service game remains one to be envied and emulated. His more conservative return game also provides a contrast to the styles of Djokovic and Nadal.
Using all of his grand slam matches from 2011, we can begin to analyze his tendencies on serve and return.
The first table shows the frequency of different outcomes in the deuce court, in the ad court, and on break point, relative to Federer’s average. For instance, the 1.014 in the upper left corner means that Fed wins 1.4% more points than average in the deuce court.
OUTCOME Deuce Ad Break
Point% 1.014 0.984 0.875
Aces 1.107 0.883 0.738
Svc Wnr 1.052 0.943 0.861
Dbl Faults 1.019 0.979 0.453
1st Sv In 1.030 0.967 0.872
Server Wnr 0.989 1.012 0.845
Server UE 0.941 1.065 1.405
Return Wnr 1.109 0.880 0.877
Returner Wnr 0.955 1.049 1.341
Returner UE 0.974 1.028 1.020
Rally Len 0.957 1.047 1.278
For a big-serving right-hander, we might expect to see more success in the deuce court. Yet the difference isn’t that large, except in aces and service winners. Federer counterbalances his lack of aces in the ad court by preventing return winners.
Some of his break point tendencies are striking. As with most players, he wins fewer break points than average points (because opponents who push him to break point are better). He serves much more conservatively, particularly the second serve, which he almost never misses when down break point.
Next, this is how he performs on a point-by-point basis. Win% shows what percentage of points he wins at that score; Exp is how many he would be expected to win (given how he performs in each match), and Rate is the difference between the two. A rate above 1 means he plays better on those points; below 1 is worse.
SCORE Pts Win% Exp Rate
g0-0 398 74.1% 71.0% 1.04
g0-15 102 64.7% 68.0% 0.95
g0-30 36 63.9% 66.9% 0.95
g0-40 13 61.5% 66.6% 0.92
g15-0 291 74.6% 72.1% 1.03
g15-15 140 69.3% 70.1% 0.99
g15-30 66 68.2% 68.0% 1.00
g15-40 29 75.9% 67.3% 1.13
g30-0 217 72.8% 72.3% 1.01
g30-15 156 66.0% 70.9% 0.93
g30-30 98 70.4% 68.7% 1.02
g30-40 51 52.9% 68.1% 0.78
g40-0 158 73.4% 72.7% 1.01
g40-15 145 66.2% 71.4% 0.93
g40-30 118 76.3% 69.7% 1.09
g40-40 95 72.6% 68.6% 1.06
g40-AD 26 53.8% 65.6% 0.82
gAD-40 69 62.3% 69.8% 0.89
You don’t have to watch Federer much to realize he likes his service games quick–and often, he has no problem putting another one on the board with only four or five serves. But when he fails to do that, his results aren’t very good.
His performance at both 40-AD and AD-40 might be a clue as to why he didn’t win a grand slam this year; in both cases, he should be winning between 65 and 70% of points, but he failed to do so by a large margin. (Though at 40-AD, the sample size is small enough to be discarded altogether.) The success rate at 30-40 is even worse. At least when he reached deuce, he performed better than average.
Serving Against Federer
We can go through the same exercises for Fed’s return points. The next two tables are trickier to read. Look at them as Serving against Federer. Thus, the number in the upper-left corner means that when serving against Roger, players win 1.9% more points than average in the deuce court; he is a better returner in the ad court.
(I’ve excluded return points against lefty servers. Since lefties and righties have such different serving tendencies, limiting the sample to righty servers gives us clearer results, even as the sample shrinks a bit.)
OUTCOME Deuce Ad Break
Point% 1.019 0.979 0.961
Aces 1.073 0.920 0.772
Svc Wnr 1.027 0.971 1.019
Dbl Faults 0.912 1.097 0.525
1st Sv In 1.030 0.967 1.006
Server Wnr 1.079 0.914 0.630
Server UE 0.945 1.060 1.046
Return Wnr 1.003 0.997 0.393
Returner Wnr 1.022 0.976 0.988
Returner UE 0.954 1.050 1.085
Rally Len 0.969 1.034 1.095
What sticks out here is Roger’s dearth of return winners on break point. He often seems to be an aggressive player–sometimes even too aggressive, but apparently he doesn’t do a lot with his first shot. Considered in light of “The Shot” that Djokovic scored against him, it provides another window into the small differences that kept Federer from winning the biggest matches this year.
Here’s more on Federer’s return game, again with numbers from the perspective of players serving against him.
SCORE Pts Win% Exp Rate
g0-0 387 57.9% 58.8% 0.98
g0-15 161 57.8% 56.9% 1.02
g0-30 68 51.5% 56.4% 0.91
g0-40 33 66.7% 55.3% 1.20
g15-0 221 57.9% 60.1% 0.96
g15-15 186 62.9% 57.8% 1.09
g15-30 104 55.8% 56.4% 0.99
g15-40 68 61.8% 55.1% 1.12
g30-0 128 58.6% 61.4% 0.96
g30-15 170 59.4% 59.6% 1.00
g30-30 127 66.9% 57.5% 1.16
g30-40 84 54.8% 55.5% 0.99
g40-0 75 61.3% 61.7% 0.99
g40-15 130 60.0% 60.9% 0.99
g40-30 137 59.1% 58.7% 1.01
g40-40 201 53.2% 56.4% 0.94
g40-AD 94 52.1% 55.4% 0.94
gAD-40 107 53.3% 57.3% 0.93
Apparently Fed returns under pressure better than he serves under pressure. He wins more points than expected when returning at both 40-AD and AD-40. Oddly, he had a tough time when returning at 30-30 but considerably more success at deuce.