Australian Open Men’s Draw Predictions

A lot has changed in the last few months of men’s tennis, yet as far as one computer is concerned, all the important things have remained the same.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal limped to the finish line of the 2011 season, while Andy Murray didn’t even get through the round robin in London.  All the while, Roger Federer re-asserted his dominance, winning the last three events of the year.  For all that, my rankings can’t ignore Djokovic’s dominance over the last year, nor Nadal’s before that.

My simulation of the Australian Open draw gives a heavy edge to Novak Djokovic, with a 25.8% chance of winning it all.  Nadal is next at 15.1%, followed by Federer at 12.7% and Murray at 9.3%.  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, at 5.3%, is the only other man with better than a one in twenty chance of winning the slam.

Djokovic also has the most lopsided first-round match.  Paolo Lorenzi just barely snuck into the main draw, and he’ll likely be on a flight home in a couple of days.  Almost as likely to make first-round exits are Aussie wildcards Benjamin Mitchell and James Duckworth, who play John Isner and Jurgen Zopp, respectively.  Yes, Duckworth’s resume is so sparse that my system gives him less than a one-in-ten chance of beating the Estonian qualifier.  I wouldn’t recommend running to your bookie with that one–it says more about Duckworth’s lack of high-level match play than it does about Zopp’s potential for dominance.

As always, the first round promises to full of tight contests, even while the seeds coast through.

  • My system gives Cedrik-Marcel Stebe a 70% chance of beating Lleyton Hewitt; that’s a reflection of how the Aussie’s health has hindered him for so long.
  • Speaking of Aussies, Bernard Tomic is set to upset 27th seed Fernando Verdasco.  My numbers put the youngster at 52.5%.
  • Ivo Karlovic is always a threat, and my system gives him a 49% chance of beating Jurgen Melzer.
  • Juan Ignacio Chela keeps earning seeds, but I keep betting against him.  This time, my system gives Michael Russell a 55% chance of scoring a first-round upset over the clay-court specialist.
  • The opening match between Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis is more likely to be lost than won.  I predict Llodra will lose it.
  • Thomaz Bellucci and Dudi Sela are as close as they come.  My system gives the Israeli a tiny edge of 50.4% to 49.6%.
  • Even closer are Alejandro Falla and Fabio Fognini, at 49.9%/50.1%.  Falla is dangerous, and Fognini is a threat to himself.
  • Philipp Kohlschreiber is always a dark horse, and my system suggests he’s nearly even (46.9%) with first-round opponent Juan Monaco.
  • British qualifier James Ward lucked into a friendly draw against Blaz Kavcic.   I give the Brit a 48.4% chance.

The results of my full draw simulation are below.

(If you’re interested in my ranking system, click here.  Once I have rankings, I use the draw to “play” the tournament 1,000,000 times.)

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic          96.0%  85.6%  77.8%    25.8%  
Paolo Lorenzi               4.1%   1.1%   0.4%     0.0%  
Santiago Giraldo           80.3%  12.2%   7.4%     0.1%  
(q)Matteo Viola            19.7%   1.0%   0.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Tatsuma Ito            63.7%  25.8%   3.1%     0.0%  
Potito Starace             36.3%  10.4%   0.8%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut              39.3%  22.8%   3.0%     0.0%  
(29)Radek Stepanek         60.7%  41.1%   7.4%     0.1%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(23)Milos Raonic           90.5%  60.8%  35.8%     0.9%  
Filippo Volandri            9.5%   1.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
Lukas Rosol                39.3%  12.5%   4.4%     0.0%  
Philipp Petzschner         60.7%  25.0%  11.3%     0.1%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        70.3%  30.7%  13.9%     0.1%  
(WC)Lleyton Hewitt         29.7%   7.4%   2.0%     0.0%  
Robin Haase                35.6%  18.9%   8.0%     0.0%  
(15)Andy Roddick           64.4%  43.0%  24.3%     0.6%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(9)Janko Tipsarevic        68.8%  50.7%  30.5%     1.1%  
Dmitry Tursunov            31.2%  17.6%   7.3%     0.0%  
(q)Jurgen Zopp             94.0%  31.4%  11.6%     0.0%  
(WC)James Duckworth         6.0%   0.2%   0.0%     0.0%  
Mikhail Youzhny            64.6%  31.6%  16.4%     0.3%  
(q)Andrey Golubev          35.4%  12.2%   4.5%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi              39.6%  19.6%   9.2%     0.1%  
(17)Richard Gasquet        60.4%  36.6%  20.5%     0.5%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(27)Juan Ignacio Chela     44.9%  20.6%   4.4%     0.0%  
Michael Russell            55.1%  27.7%   6.7%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn              61.0%  34.0%   9.3%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar              39.0%  17.6%   3.3%     0.0%  
Matthias Bachinger         53.5%  16.6%  10.6%     0.0%  
Ryan Sweeting              46.5%  13.2%   8.0%     0.0%  
Rui Machado                10.2%   2.6%   1.0%     0.0%  
(5)David Ferrer            89.8%  67.7%  56.8%     2.6%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(4)Andy Murray             82.4%  71.1%  57.3%     9.2%  
Ryan Harrison              17.6%  10.1%   4.9%     0.0%  
Xavier Malisse             58.9%  12.4%   5.5%     0.0%  
Edouard Roger-Vasselin     41.1%   6.5%   2.3%     0.0%  
Michael Llodra             42.0%  24.4%   7.4%     0.1%  
Ernests Gulbis             58.0%  38.2%  13.8%     0.3%  
Daniel Gimeno-Traver       41.4%  13.6%   2.8%     0.0%  
(32)Alex Bogomolov Jr      58.6%  23.7%   6.1%     0.0%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Viktor Troicki         73.7%  43.4%  19.4%     0.3%  
Juan Carlos Ferrero        26.3%   8.9%   2.2%     0.0%  
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez     55.6%  27.8%  10.8%     0.1%  
Mikhail Kukushkin          44.4%  19.9%   6.8%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci            49.6%  15.3%   6.9%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                  50.4%  15.3%   6.8%     0.0%  
(WC)Marinko Matosevic      16.9%   6.5%   2.2%     0.0%  
(14)Gael Monfils           83.1%  62.9%  45.0%     2.6%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Gilles Simon           83.5%  57.3%  31.7%     1.0%  
(q)Danai Udomchoke         16.5%   5.0%   1.1%     0.0%  
Julien Benneteau           66.3%  28.0%  12.0%     0.1%  
Karol Beck                 33.7%   9.7%   2.8%     0.0%  
Joao Souza                 31.2%   5.6%   1.2%     0.0%  
Matthew Ebden              68.8%  21.3%   7.8%     0.0%  
Stephane Robert            15.9%   6.8%   1.7%     0.0%  
(24)Kei Nishikori          84.1%  66.3%  41.7%     1.9%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Marcel Granollers      75.3%  51.0%  23.6%     0.8%  
(WC)Jesse Levine           24.7%  10.3%   2.6%     0.0%  
Frederico Gil              23.7%   4.9%   0.8%     0.0%  
Ivan Dodig                 76.3%  33.8%  12.2%     0.1%  
(q)Roberto Bautista-Agut   57.2%  11.1%   3.4%     0.0%  
Ricardo Mello              42.8%   6.7%   1.8%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin              19.6%  12.3%   4.9%     0.0%  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      80.4%  70.0%  50.6%     5.3%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(8)Mardy Fish              77.6%  60.5%  42.1%     2.3%  
Gilles Muller              22.4%  11.1%   4.5%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            49.9%  14.1%   5.6%     0.0%  
Fabio Fognini              50.1%  14.3%   5.9%     0.0%  
Albert Montanes            62.9%  19.0%   5.5%     0.0%  
Pere Riba                  37.1%   7.5%   1.5%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber      46.9%  33.9%  15.5%     0.2%  
(25)Juan Monaco            53.1%  39.6%  19.4%     0.3%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(20)Florian Mayer          71.3%  51.0%  27.1%     0.9%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                28.7%  14.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
(q)Florent Serra           31.9%   7.6%   1.7%     0.0%  
Steve Darcis               68.1%  26.6%   9.8%     0.1%  
(q)James Ward              48.4%  11.6%   4.0%     0.0%  
Blaz Kavcic                51.6%  13.1%   4.8%     0.0%  
Adrian Mannarino           27.2%  16.7%   7.6%     0.1%  
(11)Juan Martin Del Potro  72.8%  58.7%  40.1%     2.6%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(13)Alexandr Dolgopolov    75.2%  55.5%  29.3%     0.7%  
(WC)Greg Jones             24.8%  12.3%   3.5%     0.0%  
Tobias Kamke               68.7%  25.4%   8.5%     0.0%  
Victor Hanescu             31.3%   6.8%   1.3%     0.0%  
(WC)Kenny De Schepper      18.2%   2.9%   0.7%     0.0%  
Sam Querrey                81.8%  37.5%  21.0%     0.4%  
Bernard Tomic              52.5%  31.9%  19.3%     0.5%  
(22)Fernando Verdasco      47.5%  27.7%  16.3%     0.4%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(31)Jurgen Melzer          51.0%  38.6%  10.8%     0.1%  
Ivo Karlovic               49.0%  36.5%  10.1%     0.1%  
Carlos Berlocq             36.9%   6.9%   0.7%     0.0%  
(q)Jesse Huta Galung       63.1%  18.0%   2.8%     0.0%  
Eric Prodon                19.8%   1.1%   0.2%     0.0%  
Andreas Beck               80.2%  14.0%   6.4%     0.0%  
(q)Alexander Kudryavtsev    9.6%   4.6%   1.7%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer           90.4%  80.3%  67.4%    12.7%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(7)Tomas Berdych           87.9%  72.2%  54.5%     4.3%  
Albert Ramos               12.1%   4.8%   1.4%     0.0%  
Olivier Rochus             65.4%  17.1%   7.7%     0.0%  
(q)Bjorn Phau              34.6%   5.8%   1.8%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky          65.3%  34.3%  12.4%     0.1%  
(q)Illya Marchenko         34.7%  13.0%   3.2%     0.0%  
(q)Frederik Nielsen        27.4%   9.7%   2.1%     0.0%  
(30)Kevin Anderson         72.6%  43.1%  17.0%     0.2%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(21)Stanislas Wawrinka     76.0%  45.9%  31.1%     1.2%  
Benoit Paire               24.0%   8.0%   3.2%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis           71.9%  37.4%  23.8%     0.7%  
Benjamin Becker            28.1%   8.6%   3.4%     0.0%  
Jeremy Chardy              54.8%  29.2%  11.9%     0.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov            45.2%  21.7%   7.8%     0.0%  
Lukasz Kubot               40.4%  17.4%   5.6%     0.0%  
(10)Nicolas Almagro        59.6%  31.6%  13.1%     0.1%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(16)John Isner             94.2%  53.0%  32.2%     0.8%  
(WC)Benjamin Mitchell       5.8%   0.5%   0.0%     0.0%  
Jarkko Nieminen            33.2%  11.9%   5.2%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           66.8%  34.6%  20.7%     0.5%  
Flavio Cipolla             36.4%  14.4%   4.4%     0.0%  
Nikolay Davydenko          63.6%  33.6%  14.9%     0.1%  
Leonardo Mayer             24.8%   8.0%   1.9%     0.0%  
(18)Feliciano Lopez        75.2%  44.1%  20.7%     0.3%  

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(28)Ivan Ljubicic          62.6%  37.8%  10.7%     0.2%  
(q)Lukas Lacko             37.4%  18.1%   3.7%     0.0%  
(q)Peter Gojowczyk         19.2%   3.7%   0.4%     0.0%  
Donald Young               80.8%  40.4%  10.3%     0.1%  
Tommy Haas                 34.1%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%  
(q)Denis Kudla             65.9%   6.1%   1.6%     0.0%  
(q)Alex Kuznetsov          10.1%   6.8%   2.4%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal            89.9%  85.3%  70.7%    15.1%

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