When I initially posted odds for Indian Wells, the qualifiers weren’t placed. In the space of a couple days, the draw was filled out, and then most of the qualifiers were gone. Frederico Gil, Marinko Matosevic, and Andrey Golubev got from qualifying to the second round, but they faced other qualifiers in the first round. The only other qualifying survivor was Matthew Ebden, who advanced past the always-beatable Igor Kunitsyn.
With the big names, little has changed–after all, the top 32 have yet to play a match. The simulation is just a little more nuanced, now that the actual rating of each player is included.
Player R32 R16 QF W
(1)Novak Djokovic 89.6% 75.8% 62.3% 25.8%
(Q)Andrey Golubev 10.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 53.7% 11.4% 5.5% 0.3%
(29)Kevin Anderson 46.3% 8.8% 3.9% 0.2%
(18)Florian Mayer 82.7% 44.6% 12.4% 0.9%
Pablo Andujar 17.3% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Albert Ramos 18.4% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Richard Gasquet 81.6% 47.0% 13.7% 1.1%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(12)Nicolas Almagro 51.3% 21.9% 9.0% 0.3%
(WC)Sam Querrey 48.7% 19.9% 7.9% 0.2%
Santiago Giraldo 28.6% 12.1% 4.0% 0.1%
(17)Kei Nishikori 71.4% 46.1% 25.2% 2.2%
(30)Andy Roddick 64.6% 27.3% 13.5% 0.6%
Lukasz Kubot 35.4% 10.5% 3.8% 0.1%
Sergiy Stakhovsky 24.8% 10.5% 3.8% 0.1%
(7)Tomas Berdych 75.2% 51.7% 32.8% 3.8%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(4)Andy Murray 80.7% 62.3% 44.5% 9.7%
Guillermo Garcia Lopez 19.3% 8.5% 3.3% 0.1%
Ryan Harrison 44.2% 11.8% 4.8% 0.1%
(25)Viktor Troicki 55.8% 17.4% 8.0% 0.3%
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka 84.0% 50.8% 22.5% 1.9%
(WC)Robby Ginepri 16.0% 3.8% 0.6% 0.0%
Dudi Sela 33.8% 11.8% 3.2% 0.0%
(13)Gilles Simon 66.2% 33.6% 13.2% 0.8%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(11)John Isner 84.1% 52.4% 27.7% 1.5%
(LL)Federico Gil 15.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Nicolas Mahut 34.4% 11.8% 3.8% 0.0%
(22)Juan Monaco 65.6% 31.9% 14.7% 0.5%
(32)Julien Benneteau 63.7% 26.7% 12.9% 0.4%
(Q)Matthew Ebden 36.3% 10.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Andreas Seppi 32.2% 16.3% 7.3% 0.1%
(8)Mardy Fish 67.8% 46.3% 29.1% 2.4%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(5)David Ferrer 70.0% 51.3% 25.6% 2.1%
Grigor Dimitrov 30.0% 16.5% 5.2% 0.1%
Denis Istomin 73.6% 27.5% 8.9% 0.2%
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela 26.4% 4.7% 0.7% 0.0%
(19)Fernando Verdasco 65.3% 24.1% 12.1% 0.5%
Ryan Sweeting 34.7% 8.6% 3.1% 0.0%
(Q)Marinko Matosevic 14.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.0%
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro 85.7% 62.8% 43.2% 6.4%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(14)Gael Monfils 69.1% 48.2% 23.2% 2.7%
Nikolay Davydenko 30.9% 15.8% 4.8% 0.1%
Thomaz Bellucci 39.1% 11.8% 3.0% 0.0%
(20)Jurgen Melzer 60.9% 24.2% 8.2% 0.3%
(27)Milos Raonic 86.8% 32.7% 16.9% 1.1%
Carlos Berlocq 13.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
(WC)Denis Kudla 16.6% 6.0% 1.9% 0.0%
(3)Roger Federer 83.4% 60.1% 41.8% 8.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 72.4% 56.4% 36.9% 4.8%
Michael Llodra 27.6% 15.9% 6.7% 0.2%
Xavier Malisse 47.2% 12.7% 4.3% 0.0%
(28)Radek Stepanek 52.8% 15.0% 5.4% 0.1%
(24)Marin Cilic 54.8% 30.7% 15.1% 0.8%
David Nalbandian 45.2% 23.2% 10.3% 0.4%
Gilles Muller 26.5% 7.6% 2.2% 0.0%
(10)Janko Tipsarevic 73.5% 38.4% 19.2% 1.1%
Player R32 R16 QF W
(15)Feliciano Lopez 42.6% 21.8% 6.6% 0.3%
Marcos Baghdatis 57.4% 33.5% 12.0% 0.9%
Steve Darcis 35.9% 12.8% 2.9% 0.1%
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 64.1% 31.9% 10.6% 0.6%
(26)Marcel Granollers 91.1% 25.9% 13.0% 0.7%
Tommy Haas 8.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Leonardo Mayer 7.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
(2)Rafael Nadal 92.7% 71.9% 54.5% 14.3%