Andy Murray is out, and the clear winner is … Novak Djokovic. Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament leapt to 36.2%, almost triple Nadal’s. The Djokovic factor produces an interesting quirk: the only two players of the remaining 32 whose chances round to 0.0% play each other in the 3rd round. One of them, of course, is guaranteed to reach the round of 16, but their chances of beating Djokovic (or Kevin Anderson, come to that) are awfully small.
Aside from the top seeds, there aren’t many overwhelming favorites this round, according to my odds. It often seems to happen that way at Masters and even Grand Slam events–there’s a slew of compelling matchups in the third and fourth rounds, then in the quarters, we watch the top seeds rip apart guys outside of the top four.
Here are the odds for today’s and tomorrow’ matches:
Player R16 QF SF W (1)Novak Djokovic 85.8% 81.6% 64.4% 36.2% (29)Kevin Anderson 14.2% 10.8% 4.2% 0.5% Pablo Andujar 45.9% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% Albert Ramos 54.1% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0% (12)Nicolas Almagro 58.4% 21.2% 5.1% 0.7% Santiago Giraldo 41.7% 12.0% 2.3% 0.2% (30)Andy Roddick 35.8% 20.8% 5.6% 1.0% (7)Tomas Berdych 64.2% 46.0% 17.0% 5.2% Player R16 QF SF W Guillermo Garcia Lopez 48.2% 16.8% 6.1% 0.3% Ryan Harrison 51.8% 19.1% 7.3% 0.4% (23)Stanislas Wawrinka 55.0% 36.4% 19.4% 2.4% (13)Gilles Simon 45.0% 27.6% 13.4% 1.4% (11)John Isner 57.3% 28.5% 15.3% 1.6% (22)Juan Monaco 42.7% 18.4% 8.6% 0.7% (Q)Matthew Ebden 24.2% 7.8% 2.6% 0.1% (8)Mardy Fish 75.8% 45.2% 27.4% 4.1% Player R16 QF SF W (5)David Ferrer 69.0% 32.2% 15.2% 2.5% Denis Istomin 31.0% 8.9% 2.7% 0.2% (19)Fernando Verdasco 30.6% 13.9% 5.3% 0.5% (9)Juan Martin Del Potro 69.4% 45.1% 25.3% 6.3% Nikolay Davydenko 57.8% 15.9% 5.4% 0.4% Thomaz Bellucci 42.3% 9.3% 2.6% 0.1% (27)Milos Raonic 31.2% 19.9% 8.9% 1.2% (3)Roger Federer 68.8% 54.8% 34.6% 10.3% Player R16 QF SF W (6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 76.9% 50.1% 25.0% 5.9% (28)Radek Stepanek 23.1% 8.2% 2.0% 0.1% David Nalbandian 44.8% 17.6% 5.9% 0.7% (10)Janko Tipsarevic 55.2% 24.1% 9.3% 1.3% Marcos Baghdatis 53.5% 18.4% 8.5% 1.2% (21)Alexandr Dolgopolov 46.5% 14.7% 6.3% 0.7% (26)Marcel Granollers 24.5% 11.4% 4.8% 0.6% (2)Rafael Nadal 75.5% 55.5% 38.1% 13.2%