The Winter of Mardy Fish

Yesterday at Indian Wells, Mardy Fish lost to Matthew Ebden, an Australian counterpuncher barely ranked inside the top 100.  Ebden has played well since last fall, when he reached the quarters in Shanghai by beating Ryan Harrison and Gilles Simon, but that isn’t going to make Fish feel any better.  It’s been a disastrous few months for the American.

How disastrous?  Mardy’s loss yesterday was his 10th in his last 14 matches.  In that time, he’s beaten Andreas Seppi (by retirement), Andreas Beck, Gilles Muller, and Florian Mayer.  He’s lost to Ebden, Albano Olivetti, Alejandro Falla, and James Blake.  Not exactly top ten results.

Looking back through his last 15 months of results, though, it’s questionable whether he ever had what we think of as “top ten” results.  When the big four is winning everything, that leaves only crumbs for the rest, so men like Fish, Janko Tipsarevic, and Nicolas Almagro find themselves in the top ten simply by reaching a bunch of quarterfinals and winning a 250 or two.  It was evident at last year’s World Tour Finals: Fish, as the eight-seed, managed to take a set from both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal,  but went home without a single victory.  (In addition to the elite world of the top four, there seems also to be an elite world of five-through-seven.  David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych seem to be on a different level than everyone else, with the exception of Juan Martin Del Potro.)

Fish’s most impressive results in all of 2011 were a quarterfinal at Wimbledon (he beat Berdych en route) and semis at Cincinnati and Miami.  (He beat Nadal in Cinci and Ferrer in Miami.)  It was easy to root for Mardy the comeback kid, but the number eight ranking seems to be his ceiling.  And with Tipsarevic, Del Potro, and John Isner chasing him down, a poor performance in Miami this year could mean he’ll never reach that peak again.

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Round of 32

Andy Murray is out, and the clear winner is … Novak Djokovic.  Djokovic’s chances of winning the tournament leapt to 36.2%, almost triple Nadal’s.  The Djokovic factor produces an interesting quirk: the only two players of the remaining 32 whose chances round to 0.0% play each other in the 3rd round.  One of them, of course, is guaranteed to reach the round of 16, but their chances of beating Djokovic (or Kevin Anderson, come to that) are awfully small.

Aside from the top seeds, there aren’t many overwhelming favorites this round, according to my odds.  It often seems to happen that way at Masters and even Grand Slam events–there’s a slew of compelling matchups in the third and fourth rounds, then in the quarters, we watch the top seeds rip apart guys outside of the top four.

Here are the odds for today’s and tomorrow’ matches:

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         85.8%  81.6%  64.4%    36.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        14.2%  10.8%   4.2%     0.5%  
Pablo Andujar             45.9%   3.2%   0.5%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              54.1%   4.3%   0.8%     0.0%  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       58.4%  21.2%   5.1%     0.7%  
Santiago Giraldo          41.7%  12.0%   2.3%     0.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          35.8%  20.8%   5.6%     1.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          64.2%  46.0%  17.0%     5.2%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    48.2%  16.8%   6.1%     0.3%  
Ryan Harrison             51.8%  19.1%   7.3%     0.4%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    55.0%  36.4%  19.4%     2.4%  
(13)Gilles Simon          45.0%  27.6%  13.4%     1.4%  
(11)John Isner            57.3%  28.5%  15.3%     1.6%  
(22)Juan Monaco           42.7%  18.4%   8.6%     0.7%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          24.2%   7.8%   2.6%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             75.8%  45.2%  27.4%     4.1%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           69.0%  32.2%  15.2%     2.5%  
Denis Istomin             31.0%   8.9%   2.7%     0.2%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     30.6%  13.9%   5.3%     0.5%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  69.4%  45.1%  25.3%     6.3%  
Nikolay Davydenko         57.8%  15.9%   5.4%     0.4%  
Thomaz Bellucci           42.3%   9.3%   2.6%     0.1%  
(27)Milos Raonic          31.2%  19.9%   8.9%     1.2%  
(3)Roger Federer          68.8%  54.8%  34.6%    10.3%  

Player                      R16     QF     SF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     76.9%  50.1%  25.0%     5.9%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        23.1%   8.2%   2.0%     0.1%  
David Nalbandian          44.8%  17.6%   5.9%     0.7%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      55.2%  24.1%   9.3%     1.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          53.5%  18.4%   8.5%     1.2%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   46.5%  14.7%   6.3%     0.7%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     24.5%  11.4%   4.8%     0.6%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           75.5%  55.5%  38.1%    13.2%

Another Early Exit for Andy Murray

Last night, disaster befell Andy Murray again.  The only good thing you can say about his straight-set loss to 92nd-ranked Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is that it wasn’t quite the embarrassment of his losses to Donald Young and Alex Bogomolov one year ago.  Once again, it raises questions about whether Murray really belongs in the conversation with the rest of the big four.  After all, except for the odd disappointment from semi-injured Rafa, the other three guys aren’t losing in any first or second rounds.

Federer hasn’t lost to anyone outside the top 50 since Indian Wells in 2008, and that was to a comeback-trail Mardy Fish.  Nadal has been perfect against the top 50 since his own (probably injured) loss to Gigi in 2010–before that, you have to go back to Queen’s Club 2007.  Djokovic’s undefeated streak against the top 50 goes back to Queen’s Club 2010.

While it’s disappointing that Murray followed up such an impressive performance in Dubai with such a dud, let’s consider this in context.  Even counting Indian Wells last year, yesterday’s match was only Murray’s fifth loss to a player outside the top 20 (and third outside the top 50) since the beginning of 2011.  (He also lost to Thomaz Bellucci in Madrid and Kevin Anderson in Canada.)  Sure, this is the rung below Rafa/Roger/Novak, but the current level of top three-or-four dominance has raised the bar beyond any realistic expectations.

And perhaps most importantly, do these early exits really matter?  In the locker room, maybe, but what about in the rankings?  Murray trails Federer by 1,260 points.  If Andy had reached the semis in both Indian Wells and Miami last year (and remember, simply playing up to one’s seed can’t reasonably be expected), he would have 670 more points, barely cutting that lead in half.  Count the early exit at the Canada Masters as well and assume that he reached the semifinal there as well–still only 1005 additional points, and not enough to catch Federer.  (Though he would’ve held the #3 ranking before Fed’s win in Dubai.)

These counterfactuals are reminders that, given the current level of competition, it’s the big matches that really matter.  Winning a grand slam semifinal is worth almost as much as reaching the semis of two Masters events.  If Murray is to displace one of the top three, he’s much more likely to do so by winning a slam (or at least reaching more finals) than by simply playing up to his seed everywhere else.

2012 Indian Wells Projections: Field of 64

When I initially posted odds for Indian Wells, the qualifiers weren’t placed.  In the space of a couple days, the draw was filled out, and then most of the qualifiers were gone.  Frederico Gil, Marinko Matosevic, and Andrey Golubev got from qualifying to the second round, but they faced other qualifiers in the first round.  The only other qualifying survivor was Matthew Ebden, who advanced past the always-beatable Igor Kunitsyn.

With the big names, little has changed–after all, the top 32 have yet to play a match.  The simulation is just a little more nuanced, now that the actual rating of each player is included.

Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         89.6%  75.8%  62.3%    25.8%  
(Q)Andrey Golubev         10.4%   4.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber     53.7%  11.4%   5.5%     0.3%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        46.3%   8.8%   3.9%     0.2%  
(18)Florian Mayer         82.7%  44.6%  12.4%     0.9%  
Pablo Andujar             17.3%   3.7%   0.3%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos              18.4%   4.7%   0.4%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           81.6%  47.0%  13.7%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       51.3%  21.9%   9.0%     0.3%  
(WC)Sam Querrey           48.7%  19.9%   7.9%     0.2%  
Santiago Giraldo          28.6%  12.1%   4.0%     0.1%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         71.4%  46.1%  25.2%     2.2%  
(30)Andy Roddick          64.6%  27.3%  13.5%     0.6%  
Lukasz Kubot              35.4%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky         24.8%  10.5%   3.8%     0.1%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          75.2%  51.7%  32.8%     3.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(4)Andy Murray            80.7%  62.3%  44.5%     9.7%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez    19.3%   8.5%   3.3%     0.1%  
Ryan Harrison             44.2%  11.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        55.8%  17.4%   8.0%     0.3%  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    84.0%  50.8%  22.5%     1.9%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri         16.0%   3.8%   0.6%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                 33.8%  11.8%   3.2%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          66.2%  33.6%  13.2%     0.8%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(11)John Isner            84.1%  52.4%  27.7%     1.5%  
(LL)Federico Gil          15.9%   3.9%   0.7%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut             34.4%  11.8%   3.8%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           65.6%  31.9%  14.7%     0.5%  
(32)Julien Benneteau      63.7%  26.7%  12.9%     0.4%  
(Q)Matthew Ebden          36.3%  10.7%   3.7%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi             32.2%  16.3%   7.3%     0.1%  
(8)Mardy Fish             67.8%  46.3%  29.1%     2.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(5)David Ferrer           70.0%  51.3%  25.6%     2.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov           30.0%  16.5%   5.2%     0.1%  
Denis Istomin             73.6%  27.5%   8.9%     0.2%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    26.4%   4.7%   0.7%     0.0%  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     65.3%  24.1%  12.1%     0.5%  
Ryan Sweeting             34.7%   8.6%   3.1%     0.0%  
(Q)Marinko Matosevic      14.3%   4.6%   1.3%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  85.7%  62.8%  43.2%     6.4%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          69.1%  48.2%  23.2%     2.7%  
Nikolay Davydenko         30.9%  15.8%   4.8%     0.1%  
Thomaz Bellucci           39.1%  11.8%   3.0%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         60.9%  24.2%   8.2%     0.3%  
(27)Milos Raonic          86.8%  32.7%  16.9%     1.1%  
Carlos Berlocq            13.2%   1.3%   0.2%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla           16.6%   6.0%   1.9%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          83.4%  60.1%  41.8%     8.5%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     72.4%  56.4%  36.9%     4.8%  
Michael Llodra            27.6%  15.9%   6.7%     0.2%  
Xavier Malisse            47.2%  12.7%   4.3%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        52.8%  15.0%   5.4%     0.1%  
(24)Marin Cilic           54.8%  30.7%  15.1%     0.8%  
David Nalbandian          45.2%  23.2%  10.3%     0.4%  
Gilles Muller             26.5%   7.6%   2.2%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      73.5%  38.4%  19.2%     1.1%  
                                                        
Player                      R32    R16     QF        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       42.6%  21.8%   6.6%     0.3%  
Marcos Baghdatis          57.4%  33.5%  12.0%     0.9%  
Steve Darcis              35.9%  12.8%   2.9%     0.1%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   64.1%  31.9%  10.6%     0.6%  
(26)Marcel Granollers     91.1%  25.9%  13.0%     0.7%  
Tommy Haas                 8.9%   0.4%   0.0%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             7.4%   1.8%   0.4%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           92.7%  71.9%  54.5%    14.3%

Who Excels at the March Masters?

It’s not quite March Madness, but the March Masters tournaments of Indian Wells and Miami do constitute a unique part of the tennis season.  Though the conditions are different on opposite sides of the continent, it’s hot, and many players are contesting their first important matches since the Australian Open.

I queried my match database to come up with the best career performers at these two tournaments.  Setting aside a few players who have done well in just a couple of showings, here are the top twelve active players, by win percentage at Indian Wells and Miami.  (Incidentally, they are the only twelve with winning percentages over 60%.)

Player                  W   L  Titles   Win%  
Novak Djokovic         40   8       4  83.3%  
Rafael Nadal           57  13       2  81.4%  
Roger Federer          73  19       5  79.3%  
Andy Roddick           58  19       2  75.3%  
Juan Martin Del Potro  19   7       0  73.1%  
Andy Murray            25  11       1  69.4%  
Lleyton Hewitt         42  21       2  66.7%  
Ivan Ljubicic          37  20       1  64.9%  
Tomas Berdych          25  14       0  64.1%  
James Blake            37  21       0  63.8%  
Jo Wilfried Tsonga     13   8       0  61.9%  
Stanislas Wawrinka     14   9       0  60.9%

Del Potro is highest on the list among those without a title at either event.  Roddick’s place so high on the list serves as a reminder that this is his kind of territory–hard courts in the heat.  If he hadn’t played so poorly in his last two events, it would be tempting to pick him as an underdog this month.

If you’re interested in this sort of thing, I hope you’ve started playing around with Tennis Abstract.  One of the latest features to come online is the ability to make multiple selections from a single menu.  For instance, on Ivan Ljubicic’s page, select “Career” from the “Time Span” menu, then open up the “Events” menu on the left-hand side, then select both Indian Wells and Miami, which will show you the matches (and their stats) that add up to his 37-20 record at these tournaments.

2012 Indian Wells Draw Predictions

The Indian Wells draw is out.  With my latest hard-court rankings, I’ve run simulations on the draw.  Qualifiers aren’t yet placed, so I set all of the qualifiers equal to the 100th-ranked player.

I’d like to have some flashy, controversial projections, but the numbers don’t look much different than they did before the Australian Open.  Djokovic has a 27% chance of winning, Nadal 13.2%, with Murray a bit ahead of Federer.  Murray not only rates a bit higher in my ranking system after his latest win over Novak, but he has a somewhat easier draw here.

Here are the full projections:

Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(1)Novak Djokovic         100.0%  92.2%  78.9%    27.2%  
Qualifier1                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Qualifier2                 50.0%   3.9%   1.3%     0.0%  
Matthias Bachinger         34.5%  13.1%   1.7%     0.0%  
Philipp Kohlschreiber      65.5%  35.2%   7.3%     0.2%  
(29)Kevin Anderson        100.0%  51.6%   9.5%     0.2%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(18)Florian Mayer         100.0%  69.5%  37.6%     0.7%  
Robin Haase                72.5%  25.8%  10.4%     0.0%  
Pablo Andujar              27.5%   4.7%   1.0%     0.0%  
Albert Ramos               36.8%   6.7%   1.6%     0.0%  
(WC)Jesse Levine           63.2%  17.8%   6.3%     0.0%  
Richard Gasquet           100.0%  75.5%  43.1%     1.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(12)Nicolas Almagro       100.0%  56.8%  23.8%     0.3%  
Qualifier3                 33.1%  10.6%   2.8%     0.0%  
(WC)Sam Querrey            66.9%  32.6%  13.1%     0.1%  
Santiago Giraldo           80.6%  23.1%  10.2%     0.1%  
(WC)Jack Sock              19.4%   1.8%   0.3%     0.0%  
(17)Kei Nishikori         100.0%  75.1%  49.8%     2.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(30)Andy Roddick          100.0%  62.1%  26.4%     0.6%  
Ivo Karlovic               54.8%  22.0%   7.4%     0.1%  
Lukasz Kubot               45.2%  15.9%   4.6%     0.0%  
Alex Bogomolov Jr.         48.3%  11.3%   4.6%     0.0%  
Sergiy Stakhovsky          51.7%  12.8%   5.3%     0.0%  
(7)Tomas Berdych          100.0%  75.8%  51.7%     3.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(4)Andy Murray            100.0%  83.3%  64.7%    10.0%  
Guillermo Garcia Lopez     80.3%  15.5%   7.3%     0.1%  
Rui Machado                19.7%   1.2%   0.2%     0.0%  
Flavio Cipolla             40.2%  13.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Ryan Harrison              59.8%  26.5%   6.8%     0.1%  
(25)Viktor Troicki        100.0%  59.6%  18.2%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(23)Stanislas Wawrinka    100.0%  79.2%  48.0%     1.8%  
Qualifier4                 61.7%  14.7%   4.9%     0.0%  
(WC)Robby Ginepri          38.3%   6.1%   1.5%     0.0%  
Qualifier5                 42.6%  11.7%   3.5%     0.0%  
Dudi Sela                  57.4%  19.3%   6.8%     0.0%  
(13)Gilles Simon          100.0%  69.1%  35.4%     0.8%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(11)John Isner            100.0%  73.7%  46.1%     1.2%  
Qualifier6                 50.0%  13.2%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier7                 50.0%  13.1%   5.0%     0.0%  
Qualifier8                 48.0%  15.5%   5.0%     0.0%  
Nicolas Mahut              52.0%  17.8%   6.1%     0.0%  
(22)Juan Monaco           100.0%  66.7%  32.9%     0.4%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(32)Julien Benneteau      100.0%  69.1%  29.4%     0.4%  
Qualifier9                 54.2%  17.7%   4.7%     0.0%  
Igor Kunitsyn              45.8%  13.2%   3.1%     0.0%  
Andreas Seppi              56.1%  18.0%   9.4%     0.1%  
Olivier Rochus             43.9%  12.0%   5.5%     0.0%  
(8)Mardy Fish             100.0%  70.0%  48.0%     2.5%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(5)David Ferrer           100.0%  67.6%  51.5%     2.2%  
Ivan Dodig                 54.9%  18.8%  11.7%     0.1%  
Grigor Dimitrov            45.1%  13.6%   7.9%     0.0%  
Yen-Hsun Lu                40.7%  26.7%   7.7%     0.0%  
Denis Istomin              59.3%  43.7%  16.0%     0.1%  
(31)Juan Ignacio Chela    100.0%  29.6%   5.2%     0.0%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(19)Fernando Verdasco     100.0%  62.3%  23.1%     0.4%  
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe        56.1%  22.5%   6.5%     0.0%  
Ryan Sweeting              43.9%  15.2%   3.8%     0.0%  
Qualifier10                50.1%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
Qualifier11                49.9%   7.9%   2.7%     0.0%  
(9)Juan Martin Del Potro  100.0%  84.2%  61.3%     6.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(14)Gael Monfils          100.0%  72.9%  51.1%     2.8%  
Nikolay Davydenko          65.9%  20.6%  10.7%     0.1%  
Qualifier12                34.1%   6.5%   2.4%     0.0%  
Lukas Rosol                42.2%  13.4%   3.2%     0.0%  
Thomaz Bellucci            57.8%  22.6%   6.9%     0.0%  
(20)Jurgen Melzer         100.0%  64.0%  25.6%     0.3%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(27)Milos Raonic          100.0%  74.4%  28.2%     1.0%  
Carlos Berlocq             26.0%   3.4%   0.3%     0.0%  
Benoit Paire               74.0%  22.2%   4.9%     0.0%  
Dmitry Tursunov            49.9%   8.4%   3.0%     0.0%  
(WC)Denis Kudla            50.1%   8.3%   3.0%     0.0%  
(3)Roger Federer          100.0%  83.4%  60.7%     8.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     100.0%  71.2%  56.0%     4.6%  
Michael Llodra             46.4%  12.6%   7.4%     0.1%  
Ernests Gulbis             53.6%  16.1%   9.9%     0.1%  
Xavier Malisse             56.9%  27.0%   7.2%     0.0%  
Qualifier13                43.1%  17.4%   3.7%     0.0%  
(28)Radek Stepanek        100.0%  55.6%  15.8%     0.1%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(24)Marin Cilic           100.0%  60.1%  30.6%     0.9%  
Potito Starac              17.1%   2.5%   0.4%     0.0%  
David Nalbandian           82.9%  37.4%  17.3%     0.3%  
Bernard Tomic              74.2%  38.0%  20.7%     0.7%  
Gilles Muller              25.8%   7.0%   2.1%     0.0%  
(10)Janko Tipsarevic      100.0%  55.0%  29.1%     0.9%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(15)Feliciano Lopez       100.0%  47.8%  24.2%     0.3%  
Jeremy Chardy              36.0%  15.5%   6.8%     0.0%  
Marcos Baghdatis           64.0%  36.7%  21.2%     0.6%  
Donald Young               54.1%  21.5%   9.0%     0.1%  
Steve Darcis               45.9%  16.6%   6.2%     0.0%  
(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov   100.0%  61.9%  32.5%     0.7%  
                                                         
Player                       R64    R32    R16        W  
(26)Marcel Granollers     100.0%  67.6%  20.2%     0.6%  
Jarkko Nieminen            85.5%  31.1%   6.5%     0.0%  
Tommy Haas                 14.5%   1.3%   0.1%     0.0%  
Alejandro Falla            68.3%  10.0%   3.9%     0.0%  
Leonardo Mayer             31.7%   2.4%   0.5%     0.0%  
(2)Rafael Nadal           100.0%  87.7%  68.8%    13.2%

(For those eagle-eyed readers, qualifiers don’t all have identical chances against each other because I’m running a Monte Carlo simulation, running the bracket 100,000 times. This method occasionally results in slight errors, or tiny changes from one simulation to the next.)

Hard Court Rankings: 6 March 2012

It’s been a while since I posted new rankings.  To help get us ready for Indian Wells, here are my latest hard court rankings.  They are considerably more predictive the the ATP rankings, by considering two years’ worth of matches, surface, location, age, and weighting recent results more heavily. If this is your first time, click here to read more about the methodology.

As usual, there are plenty of surprises.  Despite Federer’s defeat of Murray last weekend, Murray has overtaken Roger in my rankings–just barely.  My numbers take into account quality of opponent, so my guess is that Murray’s win over Djokovic in the semifinals put him over the top.

Because younger players improve faster, my rankings consider each player’s age.  As usual, you’ll find Tomic and Harrison ranked higher than in the ATP rankings.  The shock, though, is Denis Kudla, #70 in my system.  The ATP rankings have him barely inside the top 200.

On the flip side, these rankings demote several players who have racked up points at lesser events.  Isner is at #20 (in part because my system doesn’t count Davis Cup) and Bogomolov is all the way down at #66.

Here is the current hard-court top 100:

RANK  PLAYER                   PTS  
1     Novak Djokovic          7437  
2     Rafael Nadal            4560  
3     Andy Murray             3778  
4     Roger Federer           3757  
5     Juan Martin del Potro   2919  
6     Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      2663  
7     Tomas Berdych           2476  
8     Gael Monfils            2231  
9     Kei Nishikori           1943  
10    David Ferrer            1833  
11    Mardy Fish              1806  
12    Stanislas Wawrinka      1613  
13    Robin Soderling         1599  
14    Bernard Tomic           1543  
15    Milos Raonic            1486  
16    Marcos Baghdatis        1486  
17    Janko Tipsarevic        1449  
18    Marin Cilic             1424  
19    Richard Gasquet         1406  
20    John Isner              1314  

RANK  PLAYER                   PTS  
21    Florian Mayer           1274  
22    Gilles Simon            1265  
23    Alexander Dolgopolov    1259  
24    Marcel Granollers       1202  
25    Andy Roddick            1195  
26    David Nalbandian        1131  
27    Fernando Verdasco       1108  
28    Philipp Kohlschreiber   1083  
29    Feliciano Lopez         1050  
30    Jurgen Melzer           1019  
31    Viktor Troicki          1004  
32    Ernests Gulbis          1001  
33    Nicolas Almagro          986  
34    Samuel Querrey           982  
35    Juan Monaco              968  
36    Mikhail Youzhny          955  
37    Julien Benneteau         953  
38    Kevin Anderson           910  
39    Nikolay Davydenko        875  
40    Ivan Dodig               857  

RANK  PLAYER                   PTS  
41    Michael Llodra           852  
42    Ivan Ljubicic            817  
43    Mikhail Kukushkin        798  
44    Andreas Seppi            788  
45    Ivo Karlovic             773  
46    Jeremy Chardy            756  
47    Lukas Lacko              741  
48    Ryan Harrison            740  
49    Donald Young             739  
50    Denis Istomin            719  
51    Philipp Petzschner       717  
52    Guillermo Garcia-Lopez   704  
53    Cedrik-Marcel Stebe      691  
54    Grigor Dimitrov          681  
55    Sergey Stakhovsky        669  
56    Santiago Giraldo         661  
57    Adrian Mannarino         654  
58    Andrei Goloubev          648  
59    Radek Stepanek           645  
60    Igor Andreev             645  

RANK  PLAYER                   PTS  
61    Steve Darcis             641  
62    Jurgen Zopp              640  
63    David Goffin             638  
64    Robin Haase              632  
65    Jarkko Nieminen          628  
66    Alex Bogomolov           620  
67    Lukasz Kubot             615  
68    Thiemo de Bakker         605  
69    Thomaz Bellucci          603  
70    Denis Kudla              601  
71    Olivier Rochus           588  
72    Daniel Brands            581  
73    Alejandro Falla          575  
74    Dudi Sela                570  
75    Xavier Malisse           565  
76    Richard Berankis         564  
77    Dmitry Tursunov          558  
78    Igor Sijsling            558  
79    Vasek Pospisil           557  
80    Benoit Paire             548  

RANK  PLAYER                   PTS  
81    Matt Ebden               544  
82    Laurynas Grigelis        523  
83    James Blake              517  
84    Matthias Bachinger       511  
85    Tobias Kamke             510  
86    Marius Copil             510  
87    Benjamin Becker          504  
88    Ryan Sweeting            500  
89    Jesse Levine             498  
90    Roberto Bautista         483  
91    Michael Zverev           480  
92    Flavio Cipolla           480  
93    Fabio Fognini            479  
94    Jesse Huta Galung        478  
95    Michael Berrer           475  
96    Grega Zemlja             470  
97    Yen-Hsun Lu              465  
98    James Ward               460  
99    Nicolas Mahut            452  
100   Ruben Bemelmans          449