Here are my projections for this year’s Wimbledon men’s draw. Djokovic is far and away the favorite now that we’ve moved away from clay. Federer comes in a close third behind Nadal, helped in part by what is probably the easiest of the four quarters.
Intuitively, these numbers seem about right, especially for the top players. But a few developments in the ATP recently have exposed some gaps in my ranking system. Brian Baker’s quick ascendance has yet to do much for him in my system, in part because he hasn’t played very much top-level matches. But after his performance in Nice, it seems wrong to give him less than a 35% chance against a journeyman like Rui Machado.
The other head-scratcher is Tommy Haas. After winning Halle, my system isn’t giving him much credit, in large part because he’s 34. Since players start going downhill by age 26, a player’s rate of decline in his mid-30s would generally be staggering. But, of course, most players are gone by then. If someone like Haas is still playing (and winning), he probably isn’t subject to exactly the same laws. Perhaps 34-year-olds on tour are rare enough that it isn’t all that important, but in this one case, it generates a forecast that doesn’t jibe with common sense.
If you’re interested in the rankings behind these forecasts, click here; for more background on the system, here.
Women’s odds were posted earlier today, and both forecasts will be updated throughout the tournament–I’ll post those links when I have them, probably mid-day Tuesday.
Player R64 R32 R16 W
1 Novak Djokovic 96.8% 81.3% 70.3% 26.2%
Juan Carlos Ferrero 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan Harrison 55.0% 10.7% 6.1% 0.3%
Yen-Hsun Lu 45.0% 7.6% 3.9% 0.1%
Benjamin Becker 53.2% 25.2% 4.8% 0.1%
James Blake 46.8% 20.5% 3.6% 0.0%
Sergiy Stakhovsky 54.4% 30.6% 6.7% 0.2%
28 Radek Stepanek 45.6% 23.8% 4.7% 0.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
24 Marcel Granollers 53.7% 42.9% 26.4% 1.0%
Viktor Troicki 46.3% 35.9% 20.9% 0.6%
Martin Klizan 65.0% 15.9% 5.4% 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 35.0% 5.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Jeremy Chardy 88.5% 48.2% 22.9% 0.4%
Filippo Volandri 11.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Leonardo Mayer 18.7% 4.7% 0.9% 0.0%
15 Juan Monaco 81.3% 45.3% 22.1% 0.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
12 Nicolas Almagro 60.2% 36.6% 18.6% 0.3%
Olivier Rochus 39.8% 20.3% 8.2% 0.0%
Guillaume Rufin 21.0% 4.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Steve Darcis 79.0% 38.8% 17.8% 0.2%
Carlos Berlocq 18.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Ruben Bemelmans 81.3% 33.7% 16.7% 0.2%
Tobias Kamke 37.3% 21.0% 10.5% 0.1%
18 Richard Gasquet 62.7% 42.7% 26.8% 1.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
31 Florian Mayer 60.7% 38.2% 19.4% 0.8%
Dmitry Tursunov 39.3% 20.8% 8.3% 0.1%
Philipp Petzschner 54.8% 23.6% 9.6% 0.2%
Blaz Kavcic 45.2% 17.4% 6.2% 0.1%
Simone Bolelli 51.0% 17.4% 8.0% 0.1%
Jerzy Janowicz 49.0% 16.3% 7.2% 0.1%
Ernests Gulbis 36.3% 21.1% 11.4% 0.4%
6 Tomas Berdych 63.7% 45.3% 29.9% 2.6%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
3 Roger Federer 92.0% 73.7% 59.4% 10.4%
Albert Ramos 8.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Fabio Fognini 36.9% 6.9% 3.0% 0.0%
Michael Llodra 63.1% 17.3% 9.6% 0.2%
A Menendez-Maceiras 31.5% 6.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Michael Russell 68.5% 25.3% 5.5% 0.0%
Gilles Muller 43.3% 28.2% 7.9% 0.1%
29 Julien Benneteau 56.7% 39.9% 13.4% 0.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
17 Fernando Verdasco 88.2% 53.1% 27.7% 0.8%
Jimmy Wang 11.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Grega Zemlja 90.7% 43.6% 20.1% 0.3%
Josh Goodall 9.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Xavier Malisse 51.6% 21.7% 9.8% 0.1%
Marinko Matosevic 48.4% 19.7% 8.6% 0.1%
Paul-Henri Mathieu 12.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
13 Gilles Simon 87.4% 56.1% 32.8% 1.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
11 John Isner 66.6% 46.0% 28.9% 1.2%
Alejandro Falla 33.4% 17.7% 8.2% 0.1%
Paolo Lorenzi 21.2% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Nicolas Mahut 78.8% 32.9% 16.2% 0.2%
Igor Andreev 87.6% 37.3% 15.6% 0.1%
Oliver Golding 12.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Denis Istomin 47.2% 28.3% 13.5% 0.2%
23 Andreas Seppi 52.8% 33.2% 16.9% 0.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
26 Mikhail Youzhny 50.8% 33.2% 16.3% 0.4%
Donald Young 49.2% 31.9% 15.3% 0.4%
Inigo Cervantes 20.2% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Flavio Cipolla 79.8% 32.0% 12.5% 0.2%
Ryan Sweeting 79.1% 29.1% 13.8% 0.2%
Potito Starace 20.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0%
David Nalbandian 49.6% 33.7% 20.3% 0.9%
8 Janko Tipsarevic 50.4% 34.4% 20.9% 1.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
7 David Ferrer 70.4% 49.1% 32.6% 1.7%
Dustin Brown 29.6% 14.6% 6.7% 0.1%
Kenny De Schepper 40.5% 12.6% 5.3% 0.0%
Matthias Bachinger 59.5% 23.6% 11.8% 0.1%
Wayne Odesnik 30.0% 5.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Bjorn Phau 70.0% 24.3% 8.0% 0.0%
Jamie Baker 36.0% 22.5% 9.0% 0.1%
30 Andy Roddick 64.0% 47.7% 25.5% 0.7%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
19 Kei Nishikori 64.7% 52.4% 30.5% 1.9%
Mikhail Kukushkin 35.3% 24.7% 11.0% 0.2%
Andrey Kuznetsov 33.3% 5.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Florent Serra 66.7% 17.8% 5.3% 0.0%
Go Soeda 52.2% 16.7% 6.7% 0.0%
Igor Kunitsyn 47.8% 14.5% 5.4% 0.0%
Robin Haase 30.0% 16.5% 7.3% 0.1%
9 J Del Potro 70.0% 52.3% 32.8% 2.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
16 Marin Cilic 61.8% 42.7% 25.1% 1.5%
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 38.2% 22.0% 10.3% 0.2%
Tatsuma Ito 50.0% 17.7% 6.8% 0.1%
Lukasz Kubot 50.0% 17.6% 6.9% 0.1%
Vasek Pospisil 38.9% 17.0% 7.5% 0.1%
Sam Querrey 61.1% 33.7% 18.5% 0.8%
Santiago Giraldo 42.8% 19.4% 8.9% 0.2%
21 Milos Raonic 57.2% 30.0% 16.0% 0.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
32 Kevin Anderson 53.2% 29.8% 12.7% 0.5%
Grigor Dimitrov 46.8% 24.9% 9.9% 0.3%
Albert Montanes 20.8% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Marcos Baghdatis 79.2% 40.9% 17.6% 0.7%
Ivo Karlovic 39.3% 8.1% 2.5% 0.0%
Dudi Sela 60.7% 17.3% 7.1% 0.1%
Nikolay Davydenko 24.1% 13.7% 6.0% 0.1%
4 Andy Murray 75.9% 61.0% 43.3% 7.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 93.2% 69.4% 47.0% 5.2%
Lleyton Hewitt 6.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
E Roger-Vasselin 44.5% 12.0% 4.7% 0.1%
G Garcia-Lopez 55.5% 17.4% 7.8% 0.1%
Lukas Lacko 82.2% 34.6% 12.5% 0.3%
Adrian Ungur 17.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jurgen Melzer 35.8% 19.6% 6.8% 0.1%
25 Stanislas Wawrinka 64.2% 43.3% 20.8% 1.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
20 Bernard Tomic 78.7% 51.6% 27.4% 1.0%
David Goffin 21.4% 7.3% 1.8% 0.0%
Jesse Levine 56.2% 24.4% 10.0% 0.1%
Karol Beck 43.8% 16.7% 5.9% 0.0%
James Ward 76.3% 28.0% 12.6% 0.1%
Pablo Andujar 23.7% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0%
R Ramirez Hidalgo 6.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
10 Mardy Fish 93.3% 66.9% 41.3% 2.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
14 Feliciano Lopez 58.5% 52.2% 28.3% 0.7%
Jarkko Nieminen 41.5% 35.4% 16.0% 0.2%
Brian Baker 33.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Rui Machado 66.2% 9.8% 1.5% 0.0%
Matthew Ebden 58.7% 25.7% 13.2% 0.1%
Benoit Paire 41.3% 14.5% 6.3% 0.0%
Alex Bogomolov Jr. 39.8% 21.4% 11.0% 0.1%
22 Alexandr Dolgopolov 60.2% 38.4% 23.4% 0.7%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
27 Philipp Kohlschreiber 81.1% 52.3% 19.6% 0.9%
Tommy Haas 18.9% 5.9% 0.8% 0.0%
Jurgen Zopp 74.2% 35.2% 10.4% 0.2%
Malek Jaziri 25.8% 6.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Lukas Rosol 39.9% 9.2% 4.1% 0.1%
Ivan Dodig 60.1% 18.3% 10.0% 0.4%
Thomaz Bellucci 17.2% 7.5% 3.4% 0.1%
2 Rafael Nadal 82.8% 64.9% 50.8% 12.0%