Forecasting the women’s singles event isn’t rocket science–it’s just a matter of how much you favor Serena Williams over everyone else.
My algorithm gives Serena a 22.7% chance of taking home the gold. While the draw did her a favor, placing Kim Clijsters in the other half, it wasn’t perfect: Jelena Jankovic is a relatively difficult first round match. With a randomized draw, Serena’s chances are nearly 25%.
Following the American is her very likely semifinal opponent, Victoria Azarenka, who I give a 18.4% chance of winning it all. With an easier draw in the early rounds, Azarenka has a slightly better chance of making it to the semis (49.0% to 45.6%), but is less likely to come out of that showdown triumphant.
No one else has a double-digit chance of winning the tournament. Williams and Azarenka are followed, in order, by Maria Sharapova, Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, and Clijsters.
Below, find the forecast for the entire field. To see my current hard-court rankings, click here, and for some background on the system, click here. I’ve also posted projections for the men’s singles event.
Player R32 R16 QF W
Victoria Azarenka 92.3% 79.6% 65.3% 18.4%
Irina-Camelia Begu 7.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 55.6% 10.6% 4.9% 0.1%
Polona Hercog 44.4% 7.2% 3.0% 0.0%
Anna Tatishvili 55.5% 12.3% 1.6% 0.0%
Stephanie Vogt 44.5% 8.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Jie Zheng 49.9% 39.5% 11.6% 0.5%
Nadia Petrova 50.1% 39.8% 11.8% 0.5%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Sara Errani 62.9% 35.8% 13.2% 0.2%
Venus Williams 37.1% 16.3% 4.4% 0.0%
Marina Erakovic 45.6% 20.8% 6.1% 0.1%
Aleksandra Wozniak 54.4% 27.1% 8.6% 0.1%
Galina Voskoboeva 69.5% 23.6% 13.7% 0.4%
Timea Babos 30.5% 5.7% 2.2% 0.0%
Petra Cetkovska 29.5% 17.0% 10.2% 0.3%
Angelique Kerber 70.5% 53.6% 41.8% 4.9%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Serena Williams 83.9% 73.9% 60.2% 22.7%
Jelena Jankovic 16.1% 9.6% 4.4% 0.2%
Mona Barthel 43.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.0%
Urszula Radwanska 57.0% 10.2% 4.2% 0.1%
Francesca Schiavone 46.9% 18.8% 4.4% 0.2%
Klara Zakopalova 53.1% 23.1% 6.0% 0.2%
Sofia Arvidsson 28.1% 11.8% 2.3% 0.0%
Vera Zvonareva 71.9% 46.3% 16.3% 1.6%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Na Li 61.5% 41.9% 23.1% 2.3%
Daniela Hantuchova 38.5% 22.0% 9.6% 0.5%
Alize Cornet 26.5% 5.5% 1.2% 0.0%
Tamira Paszek 73.5% 30.6% 13.2% 0.6%
Anabel Medina Garrigues 34.7% 10.3% 3.4% 0.0%
Yanina Wickmayer 65.3% 27.8% 13.3% 0.7%
Anne Keothavong 14.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.0%
Caroline Wozniacki 85.5% 58.0% 35.3% 4.1%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Samantha Stosur 81.9% 39.2% 23.9% 2.4%
Carla Suarez Navarro 18.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Kim Clijsters 76.2% 48.7% 33.5% 5.6%
Roberta Vinci 23.8% 8.8% 3.7% 0.1%
Agnes Szavay 21.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Elena Baltacha 78.2% 16.0% 2.7% 0.0%
Christina McHale 43.9% 35.4% 13.9% 0.7%
Ana Ivanovic 56.1% 47.2% 21.3% 1.7%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Sabine Lisicki 95.1% 66.0% 31.5% 2.7%
Ons Jabeur 4.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Simona Halep 61.6% 22.8% 7.6% 0.2%
Yaroslava Shvedova 38.4% 10.7% 2.6% 0.0%
Petra Martic 37.2% 9.2% 3.2% 0.1%
Lucie Safarova 62.8% 21.5% 10.1% 0.5%
Shahar Peer 18.4% 7.7% 2.6% 0.0%
Maria Sharapova 81.6% 61.6% 42.3% 7.6%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Petra Kvitova 80.7% 61.8% 41.0% 6.5%
Kateryna Bondarenko 19.3% 8.5% 2.8% 0.0%
Su-Wei Hsieh 42.9% 11.3% 3.8% 0.1%
Shuai Peng 57.1% 18.4% 7.5% 0.2%
Sorana Cirstea 41.5% 16.9% 6.4% 0.2%
Flavia Pennetta 58.5% 28.8% 13.2% 0.9%
Tsvetana Pironkova 42.8% 21.5% 9.2% 0.5%
Dominika Cibulkova 57.2% 32.8% 16.1% 1.3%
Player R32 R16 QF W
Maria Kirilenko 85.9% 60.6% 23.8% 1.0%
Mariana Duque-Marino 14.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Silvia Soler-Espinosa 45.6% 15.3% 3.2% 0.0%
Heather Watson 54.4% 20.3% 4.8% 0.0%
Varvara Lepchenko 73.2% 13.1% 5.0% 0.0%
Veronica Cepede Royg 26.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Julia Goerges 30.0% 23.0% 14.1% 0.7%
Agnieszka Radwanska 70.0% 61.9% 48.2% 8.4%