Here are my forecasts for the remaining 16 players in both Olympics singles draws. Note that Djokovic has opened up a bigger gap over Federer. Novak is aided by Berdych’s upset, while Federer is still likely to play the top seeds in his half.
On the women’s side, the third quarter is a crowded one, with Clijsters, Sharapova, and two dangerous floaters in Ivanovic and Lisicki.
For more background, you can see my initial forecasts, (almost) current rankings, and methodology.
Men:
Player QF SF F W (1)Roger Federer 85.3% 64.5% 45.1% 25.7% Denis Istomin 14.7% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% (10)John Isner 53.5% 16.9% 7.5% 2.4% (7)Janko Tipsarevic 46.5% 13.5% 5.6% 1.7% (4)David Ferrer 63.3% 36.3% 16.2% 6.7% (15)Kei Nishikori 36.7% 16.0% 5.2% 1.6% (12)Gilles Simon 32.3% 11.7% 3.3% 0.8% (8)Juan Martin Del Potro 67.7% 36.0% 15.5% 6.2% Player QF SF F W Steve Darcis 39.5% 8.9% 1.5% 0.3% (11)Nicolas Almagro 60.5% 18.1% 4.2% 1.3% Marcos Baghdatis 22.7% 11.9% 2.7% 0.7% (3)Andy Murray 77.3% 61.1% 29.8% 16.4% (5)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 67.5% 23.3% 12.0% 5.4% Feliciano Lopez 32.5% 6.9% 2.4% 0.7% (WC)Lleyton Hewitt 4.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% (2)Novak Djokovic 95.4% 69.3% 47.3% 29.7%
Women:
Player QF SF F W Victoria Azarenka 78.9% 53.3% 28.2% 18.0% Nadia Petrova 21.1% 7.9% 1.9% 0.6% Venus Williams 16.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% Angelique Kerber 83.2% 36.3% 14.8% 7.6% Serena Williams 75.9% 56.2% 36.9% 26.2% Vera Zvonareva 24.1% 11.5% 4.4% 1.9% Daniela Hantuchova 36.2% 9.1% 2.9% 1.1% Caroline Wozniacki 63.8% 23.2% 10.6% 5.3% Player QF SF F W Kim Clijsters 62.5% 33.2% 20.3% 8.9% Ana Ivanovic 37.5% 15.4% 7.4% 2.5% Sabine Lisicki 36.8% 15.7% 7.7% 2.5% Maria Sharapova 63.2% 35.6% 22.2% 10.0% Petra Kvitova 65.5% 45.7% 23.9% 10.2% Flavia Pennetta 34.5% 18.9% 7.0% 1.9% Maria Kirilenko 47.5% 16.2% 5.0% 1.2% Julia Goerges 52.5% 19.3% 6.6% 1.8%
With benefit of hindsight, it’s interesting to note that Federer beat Del Potro, who in turn defeated Djokovic in straight sets.