Yesterday, Sam Querrey posted an unusual achievement and did so in an unusual way. He beat soon-to-be-#1 Novak Djokovic–a career milestone no matter how it happened. And he did it after losing the first set 6-0.
This was only the fifth time in his ATP-level career that Querrey lost a set 6-0 (though it was the second time in two weeks), and it was the first time he was bageled in the first set. Big servers like Sam aren’t generally found on either end of a bagel, since their style of play tends to ensure that both players win a service game or two. Querrey has only bageled other players five times on tour. Oddly enough, three of those have been in Los Angeles.
However rare 6-0 sets are, the shocking thing here is that he bounced back. Not just in the sense that he recovered from the mental blow of winning a mere 10 of 35 first-set points, but that he won two sets from a player who seemed to be so vastly superior to him on court.
As you might imagine, that doesn’t happen very often. Of about 2100 best-of-three matches this year through the end of last week, 58 began with a bagel. The first-set loser only came back to win three of those 58 times. And of course, the losers in those three-setters were hardly of Djokovic’s caliber: Peter Polansky, Maximo Gonzalez, and Jarkko Nieminen. (It wasn’t the first time for the Finn–he lost a match 6-0, 6-7, 6-7 in 2009.)
A bit of context
2012 has been a tough year for the victims of first-set bagels. When we expand our focus to the entire 21st century, it turns out that first-set bagels have been occurring at a typical rate this year–about 2.5%, or 1 in 40 matches–but that players are finding it tougher to bounce back.
In best-of-three matches over the last thirteen seasons, there have been 753 first-set bagels. The winner closed it out in straight sets 568, or 75.3%, of those times. The rate this year has been almost identical, with straight-set wins finishing off 43 of the 58 matches with first-set bagels.
In the remaining matches, the underdogs have historically found easier going. Over the last thirteen years, the player who lost the first set 0-6 managed to come back and win the match 75 times–about once every ten matches. This year, Querrey was only the fourth (of 59, now) to do so.
What’s most interesting about the historical total of 75 is that is not much less than the number of matches that the first-set winner wins in three sets.
Let me put that another way. Since 2000, the player who was bageled in the first set has come back to win the second set 185 times. Since the vast majority of those second set scores are 7-6, 7-5, and 6-4, the first-set winner almost always had a more dominant run than the second set winner. But that once-dominant first-set win only wins three-setters 40% of the time.
As we’ve seen, Querrey was only the fourth player to complete the comeback this year, though he was the 13th to reach a third set. Based on the previous rate, we should have seen another couple of recoveries from an 0-6 start.
Winning the second set, as Querrey did today, doesn’t exactly put the comebacker on equal footing, but recent history shows that we can’t put too much weight on that outlier of a first set. Perhaps 6-0s are simply too extreme to carry much weight. Or perhaps winning the second set–even if it’s a much tighter margin than the first–provides a boost that carries over into the third set.
In any event, players should take heart in the knowledge that after dropping the first set 6-0, all is not lost. But Querrey, who has now been bageled more in the last two weeks than he had been in the previous four years combined, probably shouldn’t hinge his hopes on many more fights like the one he posted yesterday.
After the jump, find the complete list of tour-level 0-6 comebacks since 2000.
2000 Miami Masters Hard R128 Gianluca Pozzi Jonas Bjorkman 0-6 7-6(3) 6-3 2000 San Marino Clay R32 Attila Savolt Marcelo Charpentier 0-6 6-4 6-4 2000 Stuttgart Outdoor Clay R32 Karim Alami Fredrik Jonsson 0-6 7-6(5) 6-2 2000 Doha Hard R32 Daniel Vacek Fernando Vicente 0-6 6-3 6-4 2000 Auckland Hard R32 Michael Sell Nicolas Escude 0-6 7-6(7) 6-1 2000 Copenhagen Hard R32 Tomas Behrend Marc Rosset 0-6 6-1 7-6(4) 2000 Bucharest Clay R16 Alberto Martin Christophe Rochus 0-6 6-4 6-4 2000 Barcelona Clay R32 Gaston Gaudio Alex Corretja 0-6 6-3 6-3 2000 Indianapolis Hard QF Marat Safin Sebastien Grosjean 0-6 6-3 6-4 2000 Dusseldorf Clay RR Dominik Hrbaty Pete Sampras 0-6 6-4 6-4 2001 Buenos Aires Clay QF Gustavo Kuerten Guillermo Canas 0-6 6-1 6-2 2001 Monte Carlo Masters Clay R64 Fernando Vicente Ivan Ljubicic 0-6 6-4 6-1 2001 St. Poelten Clay R32 Nicolas Massu Olivier Rochus 0-6 6-4 6-4 2002 Miami Masters Hard R128 Feliciano Lopez Xavier Malisse 0-6 7-5 6-4 2002 Mallorca Clay R32 Gaston Gaudio Fernando Vicente 0-6 6-3 6-2 2002 Delray Beach Hard R32 Davide Sanguinetti Christophe Rochus 0-6 6-4 6-1 2002 Sopot Clay R32 Franco Squillari David Sanchez 0-6 6-4 6-4 2002 Hamburg Masters Clay R64 Tommy Robredo Franco Squillari 0-6 6-2 6-1 2002 Monte Carlo Masters Clay R64 Michel Kratochvil Max Mirnyi 0-6 6-3 6-4 2002 Washington Hard R16 Jarkko Nieminen Alex Kim 0-6 6-4 6-3 2003 Casablanca Clay R32 Nicolas Massu Fernando Vicente 0-6 6-3 7-6(5) 2003 Bangkok Hard R32 Paradorn Srichaphan Vladimir Voltchkov 0-6 6-3 6-2 2003 's-Hertogenbosch Grass R32 Fernando Vicente Davide Sanguinetti 0-6 7-6(10) 6-2 2003 Barcelona Clay R64 Paul Henri Mathieu Werner Eschauer 0-6 6-4 6-3 2003 Scottsdale Hard QF Mark Philippoussis David Nalbandian 0-6 6-3 6-4 2003 Vina del Mar Clay R32 Agustin Calleri Cecil Mamiit 0-6 6-3 6-4 2003 Miami Masters Hard R128 Mardy Fish Adrian Voinea 0-6 6-4 6-2 2003 Rome Masters Clay R64 David Ferrer Andre Agassi 0-6 7-6(3) 6-4 2004 Costa Do Sauipe Clay QF Jose Acasuso Tomas Behrend 0-6 6-2 6-4 2004 Estoril Clay R32 Richard Gasquet Nicolas Massu 0-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5) 2004 Madrid Masters Hard R64 Mardy Fish Mario Ancic 0-6 6-4 6-4 2004 Houston Clay R32 Franco Squillari Taylor Dent 0-6 7-5 7-6(5) 2004 Houston Clay R16 Luis Horna Stephane Robert 0-6 6-1 6-3 2004 Hamburg Masters Clay R32 Fernando Gonzalez Julian Knowle 0-6 6-4 6-2 2004 Miami Masters Hard R128 Karol Kucera Alex Bogomolov Jr 0-6 7-6(3) 6-4 2005 Buenos Aires Clay QF Gaston Gaudio Rafael Nadal 0-6 6-0 6-1 2005 Indianapolis Hard R32 Paul Goldstein Max Mirnyi 0-6 6-3 6-3 2005 Washington Hard R64 Wayne Arthurs Phillip Simmonds 0-6 6-3 6-1 2005 Washington Hard R32 Tomas Zib Jonas Bjorkman 0-6 6-3 7-5 2005 Cincinnati Masters Hard R64 Juan Carlos Ferrero Stefan Koubek 0-6 6-3 6-2 2005 Gstaad Clay QF Razvan Sabau Potito Starace 0-6 7-5 7-5 2005 Palermo Clay F Igor Andreev Filippo Volandri 0-6 6-1 6-3 2005 Davis Cup G2 R1: COL vs BRA Clay RR Bruno Soares Sergio Ramirez 0-6 6-3 6-3 2006 Beijing Hard R32 Danai Udomchoke Marco Chiudinelli 0-6 6-2 6-3 2006 Acapulco Clay R32 Razvan Sabau Potito Starace 0-6 7-5 6-3 2006 Kitzbuhel Clay R32 Mikhail Youzhny Martin Vassallo Arguello 0-6 6-4 7-6(2) 2006 Rome Masters Clay R32 Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo Marat Safin 0-6 7-6(6) 7-6(3) 2006 Miami Masters Hard R32 Simon Greul Tim Henman 0-6 6-1 7-5 2006 Vina del Mar Clay R32 Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo Nicolas Almagro 0-6 6-3 6-1 2007 Metz Hard F Tommy Robredo Andy Murray 0-6 6-2 6-3 2007 Monte Carlo Masters Clay R32 Kristof Vliegen Marat Safin 0-6 7-6(8) 6-4 2007 Sopot Clay R32 Stefan Koubek Agustin Calleri 0-6 7-6(3) 7-5 2007 Sydney Hard R16 Evgeny Korolev Robby Ginepri 0-6 6-4 6-4 2008 Washington Hard QF Viktor Troicki Andy Roddick 0-6 6-2 6-4 2008 Hamburg Masters Clay R64 Jo Wilfried Tsonga Nicolas Mahut 0-6 7-6(5) 6-2 2008 Stuttgart Clay R32 Eduardo Schwank Guillermo Coria 0-6 6-1 6-2 2008 Davis Cup G2 R2: BAH vs PAR Hard RR Juan Carlos Ramirez Marvin Rolle 0-6 6-4 6-2 2009 Moscow Hard QF Illya Marchenko Evgeny Korolev 0-6 6-2 6-3 2009 Stuttgart Clay R32 Michael Berrer Stefan Koubek 0-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4) 2009 Miami Masters Hard R128 Bobby Reynolds Juan Ignacio Chela 0-6 7-5 6-4 2009 Metz Hard R32 Christophe Rochus Fabrice Santoro 0-6 6-4 7-6(3) 2009 Houston Clay R32 Scoville Jenkins Alexander Peya 0-6 6-4 6-3 2009 Costa Do Sauipe Clay R32 Fabio Fognini Caio Zampieri 0-6 7-6(5) 6-2 2009 Vina del Mar Clay QF Tommy Robredo Juan Ignacio Chela 0-6 6-3 6-4 2009 Hamburg Clay R32 Simon Greul Mischa Zverev 0-6 7-5 6-1 2009 Brisbane Hard R16 Jo Wilfried Tsonga Jarkko Nieminen 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) 2010 Costa Do Sauipe Clay R16 Fabio Fognini Marcel Granollers 0-6 6-1 7-6(1) 2010 Memphis Hard R32 Michael Russell Wayne Odesnik 0-6 7-5 6-4 2010 Doha Hard F Nikolay Davydenko Rafael Nadal 0-6 7-6(8) 6-4 2011 Casablanca Clay R16 Pere Riba Andrey Golubev 0-6 6-1 7-5 2011 Shanghai Masters Hard R64 Kei Nishikori Robin Haase 0-6 7-5 7-6(5) 2011 Queen's Club Grass R32 Radek Stepanek Ivan Ljubicic 0-6 7-5 6-4 2012 Canada Masters Hard R64 Matthew Ebden Peter Polansky 0-6 6-4 6-3 2012 Santiago Clay R32 Rogerio Dutra Silva Maximo Gonzalez 0-6 7-6(3) 6-3 2012 Belgrade Clay QF Benoit Paire Jarkko Nieminen 0-6 6-2 7-5