The last eleven times Stanislas Wawrinka has played Novak Djokovic, he has lost. The last ten times Richard Gasquet has played Rafael Nadal, he has lost.
It takes plenty of optimism, coupled with a hefty dose of creativity, to think we’ll see a close match today. Even arguing for the likelihood of a fourth set seems a bit much.
Such an argument, if it is to be at all reasonable, must hinge on two things. First, that the underdogs are playing great tennis, better than their rankings and past results imply. Second, that the favorites aren’t playing as well as they seem to be.
Underdogs poised for breakthrough?
Certainly, Wawrinka and Gasquet have faced tougher challenges than their opponents have. Wawrinka has defeated two top-five players, making him 7-7 on the year against the top ten, an impressive mark for anyone other than, well, Djokovic or Nadal. Gasquet has fought through two five-set battles, including a quarterfinal victory over David Ferrer, the sort of guy who doesn’t lose five-set battles to the likes of Gasquet.
In both cases, though, this argument can be taken too far. Wawrinka has certainly been playing well, but neither of his last two victories are surprises anywhere near the extent a victory over Djokovic would be. He had won two of his last five meetings with Andy Murray, and taken a set in two of Murray’s victories. And even before his fourth-round match, he had a career winning record against Tomas Berdych.
If there is hope for Wawrinka, it comes in his record against Djokovic himself. The last time they met, in Australia this year, the Swiss effectively fought to a draw, ultimately losing 12-10 in the deciding set. Yet even that remarkable near-upset might overstate Stan’s case. Even though it was Wawrinka who won a lopsided first set, Djokovic posted a dominance ratio (DR) of 1.10, meaning that he won 10% more return points than his opponent. That’s almost always enough to win, and usually enough to avoid playing a sixth set. Not to take anything away from Stan’s performance that day, but aside from a few lucky breaks, it was business as usual, with Novak playing superior tennis.
For Gasquet, it is even harder to make a case based on his own accomplishments. He piled up an early lead against a listless Ferrer, then nearly blew it before playing a solid fifth set. His level careened wildly during his fourth-round five-setter with Milos Raonic, a match which revealed character it shouldn’t have needed to draw upon. This tournament is full of positives for Gasquet’s future, just not the very near future of his match with Rafa.
Indeed, to find any positive at all in the Nadal-Gasquet head-to-head, we need to go back more than five years, when the Frenchman won a 14-12 tiebreak on the way to a three-set loss. Since then, everything has gone Rafa’s way.
Favorites overestimated?
If there is any chink in the armor of either Djokovic or Nadal, it is that they have yet to be tested in Flushing. Neither has played an opponent ranked in the top 20, and Novak has played only one man ranked in the top 40.
So while both players have been dominant–Nadal overpowering almost beyond belief–it would be a mistake to conclude on the basis of these few matches that either player is in some sort of career-best form. While most Grand Slam semifinalists have to play a third-round match, a fourth-round match, and a quarterfinal, it’s as if these two guys got a bonus second-rounder and two passes through the third round.
Unfortunately for Gasquet, it doesn’t matter what the evidence says about Rafa during this fortnight. Take as many recent results as you want, and the conclusion is clear: Nadal is playing better than anyone. The worst thing you can say about his hard court showing this year is that he’s lost a few sets. He hasn’t lost a match on a hard court all year. Sure, his dismantling of Tommy Robredo might overstate his capabilities, but not by much. There’s simply no argument to be made that relies on Nadal’s weakness.
Djokovic, while ranked and seeded #1, hasn’t been quite so unbeatable. He failed to reach the final of either summer Masters 1000 event, losing to Nadal in Montreal and John Isner in Cincinnati. He hasn’t won a hard-court event since Dubai, six months ago. In addition to the summer losses, he fell to Tommy Haas in the spring, and has lost hard-court sets to the likes of Denis Istomin, Fabio Fognini, and Sam Querrey.
That’s your dossier against the Serbian. He’s not the undefeated Novak of 2011. In short, he’s human–unlike Nadal.
The best-case scenario for Wawrinka is for a replay of the Melbourne match, with a couple more breaks going his way. It’s far from likely–oddsmakers give Stan a roughly 25% chance of pulling off the upset, while my forecast is more pessimistic, figuring his chances at 14%.
Neither outcome seems particularly in doubt. But whether today’s action lasts for six short sets or ten long ones, we can count on some entertaining tennis. In current form, Gasquet and Wawrinka have two of the most beautiful (and devastating) backhands in the game. And come to think of it, their semifinal opponents play some pretty good tennis, too.