At this year’s World Tour Finals, we were spared the knottiest sort of round robin tiebreakers. Each group had a clear winner (Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) who went undefeated, along with another player (David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet) who failed to win a single match.
Since 1987, 33 players have recorded a 3-0 record in Tour Finals round-robin play. This year is the first time since 2010 (Nadal and Roger Federer) that two players have done so, and before that, we have to go back to 2005 (Federer and Nikolay Davydenko). It’s not that rare of an event–this year is the 11th time since 1987 that two players have beaten every opponent in their group.
Undefeated players are hardly guaranteed further advances, however. Those 33 undefeated competitors have a mere 17-16 record in the semifinals, and the 17 men who reached the final won the title only nine times, against nine final-round losses. (Twice, two undefeated players faced off in the finals–the aforementioned 2010 event along with 1993, when Michael Stich and Pete Sampras contested the title.)
The tiny sample of three round-robin matches pales in predictive value next to the old standby of ATP ranking. In the last 26 years, the higher-ranked player has won 16 finals. In the more top-heavy 21st century, the title has gone to the man with the superior ranking 11 of 13 times. (Advantage: Nadal.)
That said, the gap between the two finalists is traditionally greater than it is expected to be tomorrow. (If Stanislas Wawrinka upsets Novak Djokovic in the second semifinal, you can disregard this paragraph. Sorry, Stan, but I’m betting against you.) Only twice in the round-robin era have the top two players in the ATP rankings met in the concluding match of the Tour Finals–2010 (again) and 2012 (Djokovic d. Federer).
Not a shutout, but shut out
Exactly as many players–33 through 2012–have gone 0-3 in the round robin as the number who did the opposite. Ferrer and Gasquet find themselves in quality company.
Ferrer is the 7th player ranked in the top three to lose three round robin matches. In 2001, #1 Gustavo Kuerten was winless, only a year after claiming the championship. Jim Courier (1993), Juan Carlos Ferrero (2003), and Nadal (2009) went 0-3 from a #2 ranking, while Thomas Muster (1995) and Djokovic (2007) did so while ranked #3.
Ferrer is notable for another dubious achievement: going 0-3 twice. He previously did so in 2010, so this year, he matches the mark of Michael Chang, the only other man in the round-robin era to post multiple 0-3s, having gone winless in both 1989 and 1992.
His age may work against him, but there is a glimmer of hope for Ferrer. Four players (including Kuerten, mentioned above) have gone 0-3 at one Tour Finals and won the title at another. Andre Agassi was winless in 1989, then won the event in 1990. Stich was 0-3 in 1991, then claimed the title in 1993. As we’ve seen, Djokovic failed to win a single match in 2007, yet came back to win the tournament in 2008. (Then did so again last year.)
If Nadal wins tomorrow, we can add one more name to this list, in his case finally adding the trophy to his collection four years after suffering through a winless week. His 4-0 record so far this week may be no guarantee of success in the final, but it will hardly count against him.
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Match reports: I charted today’s Federer-Nadal semifinal, as well as yesterday’s Federer-del Potro match. Click the links for exhaustive serve, return, and shot statistics.
Worth a read: Carl Bialik analyzes ATP rematches–pairings like Fed-Delpo that faced off in back-to-back weeks. As usual, we have to rewrite the rules for Rafa.