Podcast Episode 32: US Open Recap

Episode 32 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, scrupulously skips the Serena-Ramos controversy and goes straight for the tennis. We look at the resurgence of Novak Djokovic and his US Open final victory over Juan Martin del Potro, consider what the future holds for women’s champion Naomi Osaka and how it compares to a few other rising WTA stars, and outline some difficult choices on the horizon for doubles prodigy Jack Sock.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 60 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 31: US Open Week Two

Episode 31 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, features all the stars: Federer’s upset, Sharapova’s loss to the beautiful backhand of Carla Suarez Navarro, Nadal’s upcoming quarter-final against Dominic Thiem, and Djokovic’s chances of racing through the bottom half and winning the title.

We also delve into the current crop of ATP (near-) teenagers, including last week’s hero Alex de Minaur, and speculate wildly about their futures. As always, thank you for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 60 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Podcast Episode 30: US Open Week One

Episode 30 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, is all about week one of the US Open. We talk about the results so far and focus on the slew of high-profile third-round matches coming up, like Serena-Venus and Federer-Kyrgios. We also discuss how slams should deal with the heat, whether tennis should allow more on-court coaching, and the ways the USTA has improved the fan experience.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 65 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 29: A New Davis Cup and a Career Golden Masters

In Episode 29 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, we spend so much time talking about the Davis Cup reforms, if ITF head David Haggerty were to listen, he’d immediately try to change our format to something shorter. While we recorded the episode before yesterday’s finals in Cincinnati, we also touch on several other topics: the impressiveness of Novak Djokovic’s career record at all the Masters, the players who–like Sloane Stephens–have powerful groundstrokes that they save for special occasions, and Simona Halep’s aggressive scheduling.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 66 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: Episode index with links, thanks to FBITennis:

Davis Cup Reforms Generally 1:49
Team and mixed gender tennis trend 6:15
Effect of DC reforms on smaller tennis federations 8:11
Will big stars play more often in the new DC format? 12:17
Davis Cup analogy to World Baseball Classic 18:39
Which countries benefit most from the new DC format? 22:09
Cincinnati F (men’s):  Djokovic v Federer 26:05
US Open favorites (men’s) 29:45
How close is Stan Wawrinka in getting back to form? 33:12
Variation in ground stroke speed (e.g., Wawrinka, Stephens) 37:10
Simona Halep’s crazy schedule 47:05
Discussion of New Haven event 50:26
US Open qualifying matches (how to choose?) 57:00

Podcast Episode 28: Tsitsipas, Sloane, and the Serve Clock

Episode 28 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, is our triumphant (re-) return to podcasting. We cover all the highlights from last week’s Rogers Cup, especially the breakout week from Stefanos Tsitsipas, the strong showing from Sloane Stephens, and the quiet dominance of Rafael Nadal and Simona Halep.

We also cover tennis’s new serve clock, which has entered the game surprisingly smoothly … but without much effect on the pace of play. Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 63 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: Episode index with links, thanks to FBITennis:

Tsitsipas in Toronto 1:17
Performance Byes [pp 45-46 in linked pdf] 8:05
Next Gen One-Handed Backhands 13:29
Sloane Stephens’ Ranking Profile 19:38
Effectiveness of Kamau Murray 27:40
Do the Canadian Results Affect US Open Favorites? 33:00
Dimitrov defending in Cincinnati 37:30
Federer returns in Cincinnati 40:55
Muguruza defending in Cincinnati 45:06
Average Age of ATP Top 50 Declining 48:30
Serve Clock 52:34

Podcast Episode 27: Roland Garros Preview

Episode 27 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, will help get you ready for the 2018 French Open. We talk through the men’s and women’s draws, with a focus on the unpredictability of the women’s field, the towering presence of Rafael Nadal in the men’s, and the big-name floaters lurking in both brackets.

We also touch on Mike Bryan’s new doubles partner, Serena/Venus in the women’s doubles, and the long-delayed suspension of Nicolas Kicker for match fixing. Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 48 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: Episode index with links, thanks to FBITennis:

Roland Garros Women’s Draw (and Serena v Sharapova) 1:08
How much do head-to-head records matter? 5:09
Top Quarter Analysis: Simona Halep as a weak favorite 8:39
Second Quarter Analysis: Muguruza, Sleeper? 12:21
Third Quarter Analysis: Potential Ostapenko v Svitolina Quarterfinal 13:51
Fourth Quarter Analysis: Kvitova favorite, but Jeff has a “Super Dark Horse” 15:36
Jeff’s and Carl’s Picks on the Women’s Side 17:40
Roland Garros Men’s Draw:  Nadal’s Tournament to Win 19:57
Do you take Kyle Edmund for your Fantasy Tennis Team? 24:56
Or Lucas Pouille? 27:44
Third Quarter Analysis: Djokovic’s quarter 29:22
Fourth Quarter Analysis:  Zverev over Thiem, and can Wawrinka or Nishikori surprise? 31:55
Draw Luck on the Men’s Side 34:58
Men’s Doubles:  Bryan/Bryan Streak Broken 37:19
Women’s Doubles:  Williams Sisters 39:17
Kicker Kicked to the Curb; Match Fixing 40:48
On Demand Video of Roland Garros Qualies 45:38

Podcast Episode 26: Reasons for Optimism

Episode 26 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with the superlative performances of Elina Svitolina, Maria Sharapova, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic in Rome, and considers how they cause us to revise our estimates of those players. For Djokovic, Sharapova, and Serena Williams, we compare their current Elo ratings–including penalties for time off–to our perceptions of their current levels.

We also talk about the pros and cons of transitioning to a “weak era,” as well as the potential role of fatigue when tomorrow’s opponents don’t get the same amount of rest today. Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 62 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

A few things we talked about:

Update: Episode index with links, thanks to FBITennis:

Zverev v Nadal (Rome Final) 0:58
Is Nadal declining? 4:37
Zverev’s narrow margins (tiebreak success) 7:15
Nostalgia sidebar:  Honoring Ferrer’s clay prowess 10:40
Svitolina’s tremendous success in finals 11:47
WTA Rome final takeaways, if any 15:11
Halep’s not-tremendous (recent) results in finals…and Wozniacki too 17:15
Is Novak back? ELO says he only sorta left. 22:34
Djokovic’s “good” losses 28:30
Roland Garros favorites; comparing conventional wisdom and analytics 30:04
A “weak era” is a good thing!  Maybe. 35:13
Serena a true #11 on clay; Sharapova a true #9 on clay (ELO, adjusted) 44:02
Will Ostapenko defend her French Open title? “Shock heuristic” says no. 53:03
The effect of fatigue between matches 55:22

Podcast Episode 25: Number Ones, Present and Future

Episode 25 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, recaps the week’s events in Madrid, and starts with a dissection of the top clay-court contenders in the women’s game. We consider what it means for Simona Halep to be a “weak” No. 1, compare the present era to other periods in WTA, and evaluate the promise of some of Halep’s main competition, including Karolina Pliskova and Petra Kvitova.

On the men’s side, we look at the latest triumph for Alexander Zverev, the continuing clay-court prowess of Dominic Thiem (and a couple of other guys with one-handed backhands), and issue another set of optimistic forecasts for Juan Martin del Potro and Fabio Fognini.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 1 hour, 12 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: Episode index, thanks to FBITennis:

Is Halep a weak #1? 1:04
Should Halep take more risks on her serve? 12:54
Ka. Pliskova’s ability to dominate for an extended period 17:19
Kvitova’s shot at #1 this year 20:27
Historical fluctuations in WTA #1s 23:14
Serena’s impending return 26:13
Can you still “play your way into” WTA grand slams? 30:42
Seeding Serena at Wimbledon 33:43
Adapting ELO to account for long layoffs (see link for more) 37:05
Sasha Zverev and Thiem on clay 45:00
Return of the One-Handed Backhand (on clay) 51:48
Shapovalov finds a second dimension (maybe) 55:46
Unusual Head-to-Heads on the ATP Tour 57:48
Favorites in Rome 1:00:53
Match Charting Project Milestones 1:07:54

Podcast Episode 24: Figuring Out Who Figures Out Clay

Episode 24 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, is all about clay. We use last week’s results as a starting point, talking up the runs of Frances Tiafoe, Alexander Zverev, Hyeon Chung, Elise Mertens, and Mihaela Buzarnescu, and discuss the various factors–from teenage training to split-second anticipation–that translate into better results on dirt.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 1 hour, 13 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: Episode index, thanks to FBITennis:

Frances Tiafoe’s Success on Clay 1:00
Resistance of Some Players to Clay Events 6:24
Tiafoe’s Unorthodox Style 15:36
Hyeon Chung on Clay 25:14
Alexander Zverev’s Long-Term Outlook 32:18
WTA Saturday to Sunday Turnarounds 37:12
Elise Mertens and Scheduling Prowess 44:38
Disparity between Hard/Clay Results for Kiki Bertens 47:00
Drop Shots as a Weapon on Clay 50:15
Hidden Tangibles: Footwork and Anticipation 53:20
Evaluating Tennis Prospects 1:00:50
MCP Data:  Bertens’ Drop Shots 1:08:25
Ways to Measure Scheduling Prowess 1:09:05
Carl’s Lightning Round 1:11:00

Podcast Episode 23: Rafa, Las Undecimas, and The Shot Clock

Episode 23 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with the greatness of Rafael Nadal, moves on to a broader discussion of the rest of the men’s clay court season, and some talk about return aggression, and concludes with our thoughts on the shot clock, which will be implemented at this year’s US Open.

Thanks for listening!

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.

Update: An index for this episode, thanks to FBITennis:

Nadal’s Undecima (Barcelona) 1:05
Alexander Zverev on Clay 9:12
Del Potro’s Chances vs Rafa on Clay 16:50
Return Aggressiveness 18:44
Tennys Sandgren 25:25
Adrian Mannarino 32:50
Shot Clock at the U.S. Open 38:43
Sidebar: Longest Rally in Pro Tennis (w/Time Violation) 41:40
Shot Clock (Reprise) 48:57
Time between First and Second Serves 52:38