Podcast Episode 52: The Unpredictable WTA of Osaka, Stephens, and Sasnovich

Episode 52 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast features guest co-host Jeff McFarland, the man behind Hidden Game of Tennis. We start with Jeff M’s origin story as a baseball analyst shifting to tennis, and then dive into a slew of WTA topics as we enter the second week of Indian Wells.

We start with Aliaksandra Sasnovich’s unusual proclivity for losing 6-0 sets and the serve-return balance in women’s tennis that results in more lopsided set scores. Next, we consider Sloane Stephens’s latest early-round ouster, dismissing some of the theories that are often thrown around after such upsets. We also talk Osaka, and finish up with a speed round on Serena, Vika, and Danielle Collins.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 70 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 51: 100 For Federer, and 50.4% for Kyrgios

Episode 51 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with a discussion of Roger Federer’s 100th title, and the chances that he’ll reach Jimmy Connors’s record of 109. We also consider the odds that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will join him in the triple-digit title club.

We continue with a lot of Nick Kyrgios talk, attempting to make sense of his ability to win matches despite losing the majority of points, as well as his abilities to unsettle opponents and cause commentators to say questionable things. We also do a bit of an Indian Wells preview to close out the hour.

Finally: My apologies for the poor editing of last week’s episode. You won’t run into any similar issues with this one.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 62 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 50: Easy Draws, Tough Draws, and the Difficulty of Forecasting

Episode 50 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, grapples with familiar questions of forecasting, and the difficulty of incorporating various level of achievements into our predictions. Belinda Bencic won a major title after plowing through some of the WTA’s strongest competition, while four ATP finalists–Laslo Djere, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Radu Albot, and Daniel Evans–enjoyed breezier paths to trophy ceremonies and sharp rises on the ranking table.

We also talk a bit about the return of Federer and Nadal in Dubai and Acapulco, respectively, possible explanations for the (apparent) weakness in clay-court ATP 500s, our latest evaluation of Casper Ruud, and the lack of tennis analytics at this week’s Sloan conference.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 64 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 49: The New York Open, Surprise Finalists, and Clay Court Tactics

Episode 49 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, focuses on Carl’s time at the second edition of the ATP New York Open. We discuss the breakout performances of Reilly Opelka and Brayden Schnur, whether professional men’s doubles is entertaining, and if a black tennis court is necessarily as fast as it looks.

We also talk clay courts: another title for late-blooming Marco Cecchinato, the difficulty of measuring the impact of surface speed, and the potential for clay court tactics like wide ad-court kickers and aggressive drop shots.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 58 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 48: Fed Cup and a Survey of Tennis Analytics

Episode 48 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, recaps the weekend’s Fed Cup action, starting with Romania’s upset of the defending champion Czechs. We also look at the long list of stars languishing in Group I and consider whether Fed Cup would benefit from a Davis Cup-style revamp.

In the second half, we flip the script, with Carl interviewing Jeff about his recent posts, including an attempt at better Davis Cup rankings, a major milestone for the Match Charting Project, a look at men’s break point serving tactics, and last week’s disappointing results for top seeds at ATP events.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 65 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 47: Davis Cup and Another Week of Tennis Shenanigans

Episode 47 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, takes a look at all things Davis Cup, including the early exit of a Federer-less Swiss team, the unexpected La Liga sponsorship, and the shrinking opportunities for players at ITF events despite all the money that Davis Cup is apparently worth.

We also plow through a list of miscellaneous topics, including a second title for 18-year-old Dayana Yastremska, a career-best final for Donna Vekic, the demise of the Connecticut Open, the persistence of the serve clock, the career slam of Herbert-Mahut, and some new mixed doubles stats.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 65 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 46: Australian Open Recap

Episode 46 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, focuses on the eye-popping achievements of Australian Open champs Naomi Osaka and Novak Djokovic. With Osaka, we consider how much she has accomplished in a single year, and whether she has distanced herself from the WTA pack. With Djokovic, we wonder how anyone could ever beat him on a hard court, and how high he’ll climb on the all-time grand slam leaderboard.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 66 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 45: Australian Open Week One

Episode 45 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, is our attempt to cover the entirety of seven days of grand slam tennis in a one-hour podcast. On the men’s side, we discuss Federer’s vulnerability to an early upset, what to think about Tiafoe and the young American resurgence in general, and some solid under-the-radar performances from Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut.

We then make some cautious predictions about the Simona-Serena fourth round match and consider whether we should be as excited about Ashleigh Barty as my Elo ratings are. We even talk a bit about doubles, though it’s mostly about why it’s hard to talk about doubles. But don’t worry–we’ll keep trying.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 65 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 44: Murray’s Retirement and an Australian Open Preview

Episode 44 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with some reflection on the outstanding career and premature retirement of Andy Murray. We spend some time talking about the surprising ATP aging curves I wrote about a few days ago, then delve into the 2019 Australian Open.

We assess the dangers awaiting the coachless Simona Halep, including a potential fourth-round meeting with Serena Williams, as well as the long list of women with a plausible chance to lift the trophy two weeks from now. We agree on the predictable pick to win the men’s title, but note that Novak Djokovic’s last few months carry a few warning signs.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 67 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

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Podcast Episode 43: Berdych’s Comeback, Andreescu’s Breakthrough, and Karlovic’s Longevity

Episode 43 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, plows through the wealth of results from the 2019 season’s first week. We start with Bianca Andreescu’s breakthrough in Auckland and a high-quality first-rounder in Brisbane, then move on Aryna Sabalenka’s title in Shenzhen, along with her aggression and possibly-related predilection for three-set matches.

On the men’s side, we talk about Ivo Karlovic’s surprise run to the Pune final at age 39, the ups and downs of Kei Nishikori’s career, especially in title matches, and a strong showing from Tomas Berdych in his first tournament since June.

We wrap things up by touching on the extremely strong women’s field in Sydney, and the vast difference between the competitiveness there and at the smaller event in Hobart.

Thanks for listening!

(Note: this week’s episode is about 60 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)

Click to listen, subscribe on iTunes, or use our feed to get updates on your favorite podcast software.