{"id":1004,"date":"2012-11-01T13:56:48","date_gmt":"2012-11-01T17:56:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=1004"},"modified":"2012-11-01T13:56:48","modified_gmt":"2012-11-01T17:56:48","slug":"bouncing-back-from-a-bagel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2012\/11\/01\/bouncing-back-from-a-bagel\/","title":{"rendered":"Bouncing Back From a Bagel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, Sam Querrey<\/a> posted an unusual achievement<\/a> and did so in an unusual way. \u00a0He beat soon-to-be-#1 Novak Djokovic<\/a>–a career milestone no matter how it happened. \u00a0And he did it after losing the first set 6-0.<\/p>\n

This was only the fifth time in his ATP-level career that Querrey lost a set 6-0 (though it was the second time in two weeks), and it was the first time he was bageled in the first set. \u00a0Big servers like Sam aren’t generally found on either end of a bagel, since their style of play tends to ensure that both players win a service game or two. \u00a0Querrey has only bageled other players five times on tour. \u00a0Oddly enough, three of those have been in Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

However rare 6-0 sets are, the shocking thing here is that he bounced back. \u00a0Not just in the sense that he recovered from the mental blow \u00a0of winning a mere 10 of 35 first-set points, but that he won two sets from a player who seemed to be so vastly superior to him on court.<\/p>\n

As you might imagine, that doesn’t happen very often. \u00a0Of about 2100 best-of-three matches this year through the end of last week, 58 began with a bagel. \u00a0The first-set loser only came back to win three of those 58 times. \u00a0And of course, the losers in those three-setters were hardly of Djokovic’s caliber: Peter Polansky<\/a>, Maximo Gonzalez<\/a>, and Jarkko Nieminen<\/a>. \u00a0(It wasn’t the first time for the Finn–he lost a match 6-0, 6-7, 6-7 in 2009.)<\/p>\n

A bit of context<\/strong><\/p>\n

2012 has been a tough year for the victims of first-set bagels. \u00a0When we expand our focus to the entire 21st century, it turns out that first-set bagels have been occurring at a typical rate this year–about 2.5%, or 1 in 40 matches–but that players are finding it tougher to bounce back.<\/p>\n

In best-of-three matches over the last thirteen seasons, there have been 753 first-set bagels. \u00a0The winner closed it out in straight sets 568, or 75.3%, of those times. \u00a0The rate this year has been almost identical, with straight-set wins finishing off 43 of the 58 matches with first-set bagels.<\/p>\n

In the remaining matches, the underdogs have historically found easier going. \u00a0Over the last thirteen years, the player who lost the first set 0-6 managed to come back and win the match 75 times–about once every ten matches. \u00a0This year, Querrey was only the fourth (of 59, now) to do so.<\/p>\n

What’s most interesting about the historical total of 75 is that is not much less than the number of matches that the first-set winner wins in three sets.<\/p>\n

Let me put that another way. \u00a0Since 2000, the player who was bageled in the first set has come back to win the second set 185 times. \u00a0Since the vast majority of those second set scores are 7-6, 7-5, and 6-4, the first-set winner almost always had a more dominant run than the second set winner. \u00a0 \u00a0But that once-dominant first-set win only wins three-setters 40% of the time.<\/p>\n

As we’ve seen, Querrey was only the fourth player to complete the comeback this year, though he was the 13th to reach a third set. \u00a0Based on the previous rate, we should have seen another couple of recoveries from an 0-6 start.<\/p>\n

Winning the second set, as Querrey did today, doesn’t exactly put the comebacker on equal footing, but recent history shows that we can’t put\u00a0too<\/em> much weight on that outlier of a first set. \u00a0Perhaps 6-0s are simply too extreme to carry much weight. \u00a0Or perhaps winning the second set–even if it’s a much tighter margin than the first–provides a boost that carries over into the third set.<\/p>\n

In any event, players should take heart in the knowledge that after dropping the first set 6-0, all is not lost. \u00a0But Querrey, who has now been bageled more in the last two weeks than he had been in the previous four years combined, probably shouldn’t hinge his hopes on many more fights like the one he posted yesterday.<\/p>\n

After the jump, find the complete list of tour-level 0-6 comebacks since 2000.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

2000  Miami Masters                Hard   R128  Gianluca Pozzi         Jonas Bjorkman            0-6 7-6(3) 6-3     \n2000  San Marino                   Clay   R32   Attila Savolt          Marcelo Charpentier       0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2000  Stuttgart Outdoor            Clay   R32   Karim Alami            Fredrik Jonsson           0-6 7-6(5) 6-2     \n2000  Doha                         Hard   R32   Daniel Vacek           Fernando Vicente          0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2000  Auckland                     Hard   R32   Michael Sell           Nicolas Escude            0-6 7-6(7) 6-1     \n2000  Copenhagen                   Hard   R32   Tomas Behrend          Marc Rosset               0-6 6-1 7-6(4)     \n2000  Bucharest                    Clay   R16   Alberto Martin         Christophe Rochus         0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2000  Barcelona                    Clay   R32   Gaston Gaudio          Alex Corretja             0-6 6-3 6-3        \n2000  Indianapolis                 Hard   QF    Marat Safin            Sebastien Grosjean        0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2000  Dusseldorf                   Clay   RR    Dominik Hrbaty         Pete Sampras              0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2001  Buenos Aires                 Clay   QF    Gustavo Kuerten        Guillermo Canas           0-6 6-1 6-2        \n2001  Monte Carlo Masters          Clay   R64   Fernando Vicente       Ivan Ljubicic             0-6 6-4 6-1        \n2001  St. Poelten                  Clay   R32   Nicolas Massu          Olivier Rochus            0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2002  Miami Masters                Hard   R128  Feliciano Lopez        Xavier Malisse            0-6 7-5 6-4        \n2002  Mallorca                     Clay   R32   Gaston Gaudio          Fernando Vicente          0-6 6-3 6-2        \n2002  Delray Beach                 Hard   R32   Davide Sanguinetti     Christophe Rochus         0-6 6-4 6-1        \n2002  Sopot                        Clay   R32   Franco Squillari       David Sanchez             0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2002  Hamburg Masters              Clay   R64   Tommy Robredo          Franco Squillari          0-6 6-2 6-1        \n2002  Monte Carlo Masters          Clay   R64   Michel Kratochvil      Max Mirnyi                0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2002  Washington                   Hard   R16   Jarkko Nieminen        Alex Kim                  0-6 6-4 6-3        \n2003  Casablanca                   Clay   R32   Nicolas Massu          Fernando Vicente          0-6 6-3 7-6(5)     \n2003  Bangkok                      Hard   R32   Paradorn Srichaphan    Vladimir Voltchkov        0-6 6-3 6-2        \n2003  's-Hertogenbosch             Grass  R32   Fernando Vicente       Davide Sanguinetti        0-6 7-6(10) 6-2    \n2003  Barcelona                    Clay   R64   Paul Henri Mathieu     Werner Eschauer           0-6 6-4 6-3        \n2003  Scottsdale                   Hard   QF    Mark Philippoussis     David Nalbandian          0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2003  Vina del Mar                 Clay   R32   Agustin Calleri        Cecil Mamiit              0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2003  Miami Masters                Hard   R128  Mardy Fish             Adrian Voinea             0-6 6-4 6-2        \n2003  Rome Masters                 Clay   R64   David Ferrer           Andre Agassi              0-6 7-6(3) 6-4     \n2004  Costa Do Sauipe              Clay   QF    Jose Acasuso           Tomas Behrend             0-6 6-2 6-4        \n2004  Estoril                      Clay   R32   Richard Gasquet        Nicolas Massu             0-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5)  \n2004  Madrid Masters               Hard   R64   Mardy Fish             Mario Ancic               0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2004  Houston                      Clay   R32   Franco Squillari       Taylor Dent               0-6 7-5 7-6(5)     \n2004  Houston                      Clay   R16   Luis Horna             Stephane Robert           0-6 6-1 6-3        \n2004  Hamburg Masters              Clay   R32   Fernando Gonzalez      Julian Knowle             0-6 6-4 6-2        \n2004  Miami Masters                Hard   R128  Karol Kucera           Alex Bogomolov Jr         0-6 7-6(3) 6-4     \n2005  Buenos Aires                 Clay   QF    Gaston Gaudio          Rafael Nadal              0-6 6-0 6-1        \n2005  Indianapolis                 Hard   R32   Paul Goldstein         Max Mirnyi                0-6 6-3 6-3        \n2005  Washington                   Hard   R64   Wayne Arthurs          Phillip Simmonds          0-6 6-3 6-1        \n2005  Washington                   Hard   R32   Tomas Zib              Jonas Bjorkman            0-6 6-3 7-5        \n2005  Cincinnati Masters           Hard   R64   Juan Carlos Ferrero    Stefan Koubek             0-6 6-3 6-2        \n2005  Gstaad                       Clay   QF    Razvan Sabau           Potito Starace            0-6 7-5 7-5        \n2005  Palermo                      Clay   F     Igor Andreev           Filippo Volandri          0-6 6-1 6-3        \n2005  Davis Cup G2 R1: COL vs BRA  Clay   RR    Bruno Soares           Sergio Ramirez            0-6 6-3 6-3        \n2006  Beijing                      Hard   R32   Danai Udomchoke        Marco Chiudinelli         0-6 6-2 6-3        \n2006  Acapulco                     Clay   R32   Razvan Sabau           Potito Starace            0-6 7-5 6-3        \n2006  Kitzbuhel                    Clay   R32   Mikhail Youzhny        Martin Vassallo Arguello  0-6 6-4 7-6(2)     \n2006  Rome Masters                 Clay   R32   Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo  Marat Safin               0-6 7-6(6) 7-6(3)  \n2006  Miami Masters                Hard   R32   Simon Greul            Tim Henman                0-6 6-1 7-5        \n2006  Vina del Mar                 Clay   R32   Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo  Nicolas Almagro           0-6 6-3 6-1        \n2007  Metz                         Hard   F     Tommy Robredo          Andy Murray               0-6 6-2 6-3        \n2007  Monte Carlo Masters          Clay   R32   Kristof Vliegen        Marat Safin               0-6 7-6(8) 6-4     \n2007  Sopot                        Clay   R32   Stefan Koubek          Agustin Calleri           0-6 7-6(3) 7-5     \n2007  Sydney                       Hard   R16   Evgeny Korolev         Robby Ginepri             0-6 6-4 6-4        \n2008  Washington                   Hard   QF    Viktor Troicki         Andy Roddick              0-6 6-2 6-4        \n2008  Hamburg Masters              Clay   R64   Jo Wilfried Tsonga     Nicolas Mahut             0-6 7-6(5) 6-2     \n2008  Stuttgart                    Clay   R32   Eduardo Schwank        Guillermo Coria           0-6 6-1 6-2        \n2008  Davis Cup G2 R2: BAH vs PAR  Hard   RR    Juan Carlos Ramirez    Marvin Rolle              0-6 6-4 6-2        \n2009  Moscow                       Hard   QF    Illya Marchenko        Evgeny Korolev            0-6 6-2 6-3        \n2009  Stuttgart                    Clay   R32   Michael Berrer         Stefan Koubek             0-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4)  \n2009  Miami Masters                Hard   R128  Bobby Reynolds         Juan Ignacio Chela        0-6 7-5 6-4        \n2009  Metz                         Hard   R32   Christophe Rochus      Fabrice Santoro           0-6 6-4 7-6(3)     \n2009  Houston                      Clay   R32   Scoville Jenkins       Alexander Peya            0-6 6-4 6-3        \n2009  Costa Do Sauipe              Clay   R32   Fabio Fognini          Caio Zampieri             0-6 7-6(5) 6-2     \n2009  Vina del Mar                 Clay   QF    Tommy Robredo          Juan Ignacio Chela        0-6 6-3 6-4        \n2009  Hamburg                      Clay   R32   Simon Greul            Mischa Zverev             0-6 7-5 6-1        \n2009  Brisbane                     Hard   R16   Jo Wilfried Tsonga     Jarkko Nieminen           0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)  \n2010  Costa Do Sauipe              Clay   R16   Fabio Fognini          Marcel Granollers         0-6 6-1 7-6(1)     \n2010  Memphis                      Hard   R32   Michael Russell        Wayne Odesnik             0-6 7-5 6-4        \n2010  Doha                         Hard   F     Nikolay Davydenko      Rafael Nadal              0-6 7-6(8) 6-4     \n2011  Casablanca                   Clay   R16   Pere Riba              Andrey Golubev            0-6 6-1 7-5        \n2011  Shanghai Masters             Hard   R64   Kei Nishikori          Robin Haase               0-6 7-5 7-6(5)     \n2011  Queen's Club                 Grass  R32   Radek Stepanek         Ivan Ljubicic             0-6 7-5 6-4        \n2012  Canada Masters               Hard   R64   Matthew Ebden          Peter Polansky            0-6 6-4 6-3        \n2012  Santiago                     Clay   R32   Rogerio Dutra Silva    Maximo Gonzalez           0-6 7-6(3) 6-3     \n2012  Belgrade                     Clay   QF    Benoit Paire           Jarkko Nieminen           0-6 6-2 7-5<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yesterday, Sam Querrey posted an unusual achievement and did so in an unusual way. \u00a0He beat soon-to-be-#1 Novak Djokovic–a career milestone no matter how it happened. \u00a0And he did it after losing the first set 6-0. This was only the fifth time in his ATP-level career that Querrey lost a set 6-0 (though it was … Continue reading Bouncing Back From a Bagel<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bagels-and-breadsticks"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}