{"id":1213,"date":"2013-08-09T10:30:13","date_gmt":"2013-08-09T14:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=1213"},"modified":"2013-08-09T10:30:13","modified_gmt":"2013-08-09T14:30:13","slug":"raonic-del-potro-and-the-importance-of-one-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2013\/08\/09\/raonic-del-potro-and-the-importance-of-one-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Raonic, del Potro, and the Importance of One Point"},"content":{"rendered":"

In last night’s Coupe Rogers match between Milos Raonic<\/a> and Juan Martin del Potro<\/a>, one point stands out from the rest<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Raonic won the first set, then Delpo broke early in the second. \u00a0With del Potro serving at 4-3, Raonic earned a break point with a winner at the net. \u00a0Replays clearly show that he touched the net. \u00a0Had the chair umpire seen it in real time, Delpo would have been awarded the point.<\/p>\n

The Argentine never recovered, losing the next nine points and the match.<\/p>\n

The net touch, and the point Milos didn’t deserve, was clearly a turning point in the match. \u00a0But how important was it, really?<\/p>\n

If we assume that the two men were equal and that both players win 75% of service points (not true in Delpo’s case yesterday, but reasonable for two big servers on hard courts), here is a summary of Raonic’s probability of winning<\/a> at various stages of the match:<\/p>\n