{"id":1401,"date":"2013-11-10T11:43:55","date_gmt":"2013-11-10T16:43:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=1401"},"modified":"2013-11-10T11:43:55","modified_gmt":"2013-11-10T16:43:55","slug":"round-robin-shutouts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/10\/round-robin-shutouts\/","title":{"rendered":"Round Robin Shutouts"},"content":{"rendered":"

At this year’s World Tour Finals, we were spared the knottiest sort of round robin tiebreakers. \u00a0Each group had a clear winner (Rafael Nadal<\/a> and Novak Djokovic<\/a>) who went undefeated, along with another player (David Ferrer<\/a> and Richard Gasquet<\/a>) who failed to win a single match.<\/p>\n

Since 1987, 33 players have recorded a 3-0 record in Tour Finals round-robin play. \u00a0This year is the first time since 2010 (Nadal and Roger Federer<\/a>) that two players have done so, and before that, we have to go back to 2005 (Federer and Nikolay Davydenko<\/a>). \u00a0It’s not that rare of an event–this year is the 11th time since 1987 that two players have beaten every opponent in their group.<\/p>\n

Undefeated players are hardly guaranteed further advances, however. \u00a0Those 33 undefeated competitors have a mere 17-16 record in the semifinals, and the 17 men who reached the final won the title only nine times, against nine final-round losses. \u00a0(Twice, two undefeated players faced off in the finals–the aforementioned 2010 event along with 1993, when Michael Stich<\/a> and Pete Sampras<\/a> contested the title.)<\/p>\n

The tiny sample of three round-robin matches pales in predictive value next to the old standby of ATP ranking. \u00a0In the last 26 years, the higher-ranked player has won 16 finals. \u00a0In the more top-heavy 21st century, the title has gone to the man with the superior ranking 11 of 13 times. \u00a0(Advantage: Nadal.)<\/p>\n

That said, the gap between the two finalists is traditionally greater than it is expected to be tomorrow. \u00a0(If Stanislas Wawrinka<\/a> upsets Novak Djokovic in the second semifinal, you can disregard this paragraph. \u00a0Sorry, Stan, but I’m betting against you.) \u00a0Only twice in the round-robin era have the top two players in the ATP rankings met in the concluding match of the Tour Finals–2010 (again) and 2012 (Djokovic d. Federer).<\/p>\n

Not a shutout, but shut out<\/strong><\/p>\n

Exactly as many players–33 through 2012–have gone 0-3 in the round robin as the number who did the opposite. \u00a0Ferrer and Gasquet find themselves in quality company.<\/p>\n

Ferrer is the 7th player ranked in the top three to lose three round robin matches. \u00a0In 2001, #1 Gustavo Kuerten<\/a> was winless, only a year after claiming the championship. \u00a0Jim Courier<\/a> (1993), Juan Carlos Ferrero<\/a> (2003), and Nadal (2009) went 0-3 from a #2 ranking, while Thomas Muster<\/a> (1995) and Djokovic (2007) did so while ranked #3.<\/p>\n

Ferrer is notable for another dubious achievement: going 0-3 twice. \u00a0He previously did so in 2010, so this year, he matches the mark of Michael Chang<\/a>, the only other man in the round-robin era to post multiple 0-3s, having gone winless in both 1989 and 1992.<\/p>\n

His age may work against him<\/a>, but there is a glimmer of hope for Ferrer. \u00a0Four players (including Kuerten, mentioned above) have gone 0-3 at one Tour Finals and won the title at another. \u00a0Andre Agassi<\/a> was winless in 1989, then won the event in 1990. \u00a0Stich was 0-3 in 1991, then claimed the title in 1993. \u00a0As we’ve seen, Djokovic failed to win a single match in 2007, yet came back to win the tournament in 2008. \u00a0(Then did so again last year.)<\/p>\n

If Nadal wins tomorrow, we can add one more name to this list, in his case finally adding the trophy to his collection four years after suffering through a winless week. \u00a0His 4-0 record so far this week may be no guarantee of success in the final, but it will hardly count against him.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Match reports:\u00a0<\/strong>I charted today’s Federer-Nadal semifinal<\/a>, as well as yesterday’s Federer-del Potro match<\/a>. \u00a0Click the links for exhaustive serve, return, and shot statistics.<\/p>\n

Worth a read:\u00a0<\/strong>Carl Bialik analyzes ATP rematches<\/a>–pairings like Fed-Delpo that faced off in back-to-back weeks. \u00a0As usual, we have to rewrite the rules for Rafa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At this year’s World Tour Finals, we were spared the knottiest sort of round robin tiebreakers. \u00a0Each group had a clear winner (Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) who went undefeated, along with another player (David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet) who failed to win a single match. Since 1987, 33 players have recorded a 3-0 record … Continue reading Round Robin Shutouts<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,93,126],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-records","category-world-tour-finals"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1401\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}