{"id":1420,"date":"2013-11-13T20:18:24","date_gmt":"2013-11-14T01:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=1420"},"modified":"2013-11-13T20:18:24","modified_gmt":"2013-11-14T01:18:24","slug":"challenger-tour-finals-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/13\/challenger-tour-finals-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenger Tour Finals Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

I wrote an extensive preview of this week’s Challenger Tour Finals for The Changeover, so you should check that out first<\/a>. \u00a0(Also worth a read is the preview at Foot Soldiers of Tennis<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Because so much less separates players at this level (compared to those at last year’s World Tour Finals), my forecast stops just short of throwing its hands up in dismay. \u00a0Coming into the event, Italian clay specialist Filippo Volandri<\/a> was the favorite, with a 15.5% chance of winning the event. \u00a0He lost today to Alejandro Gonzalez<\/a>, making it much less likely that he’ll progress out of the round-robin stage.<\/p>\n

Today’s other winners were top seed Teymuraz Gabashvili<\/a>, Oleksandr Nedovyesov<\/a>, and Jesse Huta Galung<\/a>. \u00a0My numbers now consider Huta Galung the favorite, with a better than 20% chance of winning the title. \u00a0The situation in Grupo Verde will become much more clear after tomorrow’s night match between Gabashvili and Nedovyesov.<\/p>\n

Here is the pre-tournament forecast:<\/p>\n

Player       3-0  2-1  1-2  0-3     SF      F      W  \nGabashvili   12%  38%  37%  13%  49.8%  24.3%  12.0%  \nVolandri     15%  40%  35%  10%  55.3%  29.3%  15.5%  \nNedovyesov   14%  39%  36%  11%  53.0%  26.9%  13.7%  \nHuta Galung  14%  39%  36%  11%  53.8%  28.2%  14.6%  \nGonzalez     10%  35%  40%  15%  45.0%  21.8%  10.4%  \nUngur        10%  35%  40%  15%  45.0%  20.9%   9.8%  \nMartin       11%  36%  39%  14%  46.0%  22.4%  10.7%  \nClezar       13%  38%  37%  11%  52.2%  26.3%  13.3%<\/pre>\n
And here is the forecast updated with the results of today’s four matches:<\/p>\n
Player       3-0  2-1  1-2  0-3     SF      F      W  \nGabashvili   24%  50%  26%   0%  71.5%  35.0%  17.1%  \nVolandri      0%  27%  50%  23%  30.2%  16.2%   8.6%  \nNedovyesov   28%  50%  22%   0%  75.7%  38.3%  19.5%  \nHuta Galung  27%  50%  23%   0%  74.7%  39.0%  20.5%  \nGonzalez     23%  50%  27%   0%  70.1%  33.7%  15.8%  \nUngur         0%  22%  50%  29%  23.1%  10.8%   5.1%  \nMartin        0%  23%  50%  27%  25.1%  12.2%   5.9%  \nClezar        0%  27%  50%  23%  29.6%  14.9%   7.4%<\/pre>\n
(My algorithm doesn’t implement the details of the number-of-sets-won tiebreaker, so Guilherme Clezar<\/a>, the only loser today to win a set, probably has a slightly better chance of advancing than these numbers give him credit for.)<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Challenger charting:\u00a0<\/strong>The most interesting match of the day–if not the cleanest–was the last one, between Nedovyesov and Clezar. \u00a0I charted it, so you can check out detailed serve, return, and shot-by-shot stats for that contest<\/a>.<\/p>\n
And if you’re really into this stuff–Challengers and\/or charting–here are my stat reports from yesterday’s first-round matches in Champaign between Ram and Giron<\/a> and Sandgren and Peliwo<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I wrote an extensive preview of this week’s Challenger Tour Finals for The Changeover, so you should check that out first. \u00a0(Also worth a read is the preview at Foot Soldiers of Tennis.) Because so much less separates players at this level (compared to those at last year’s World Tour Finals), my forecast stops just … Continue reading Challenger Tour Finals Forecast<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,33,40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challengers","category-elsewhere","category-forecasting"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1420"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1420\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}