{"id":145,"date":"2011-03-19T13:06:32","date_gmt":"2011-03-19T13:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=145"},"modified":"2011-03-19T13:06:32","modified_gmt":"2011-03-19T13:06:32","slug":"saturday-topspin-slam-winner-semifinals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/19\/saturday-topspin-slam-winner-semifinals\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Topspin: Slam Winner Semifinals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bored and quartered: <\/em>Who would’ve guessed that Rafael Nadal<\/strong> vs. Ivo Karlovic<\/strong> would make for the most exciting men’s quarterfinal at Indian Wells? \u00a0Both Novak Djokovic<\/strong> and Roger Federer<\/strong> were impressive yesterday, but they didn’t have to be. \u00a0Richard Gasquet<\/strong> put together a few strings of solid play, including the first few games of the match, but couldn’t keep up with the Serb. \u00a0Stanislas Wawrinka<\/strong> looked like he lost his match before he came on court.<\/p>\n

The story of the tournament thus far (and perhaps the entire season) has been Djokovic’s dominance. \u00a0Gasquet was quoted yesterday saying that Novak’s return game is better than Federer’s or Nadal’s. \u00a0He may be right, and it’s an understandable thing to say for a guy who just had his service games demolished.<\/p>\n

Gasquet didn’t even win half of his service points yesterday, and he lost nearly half of his first<\/em> serve points. \u00a0Djokovic had 12 break points (of which he converted five) which, if anything, seems low considering how ineffective the Frenchman was on his serve.<\/p>\n

Much has been written about Djokovic’s string of bagels. \u00a0Though Gasquet managed to win games in each set, the Serb may still be setting records for the Indian Wells event. \u00a0Reader Jovan emailed me the following:<\/p>\n

Losing a total of 12 games over the first four matches has never been done before. \u00a0Up to now the best has been 14, done by Jimmy Connors in 1976 and Eliot Teltscher in 1982. \u00a0Connors went on to win the tourney without dropping a set, \u00a0Teltscher lost in the semi.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Wow. \u00a0For comparison’s sake, Nadal lost 14 games in the Karlovic match alone.<\/p>\n

Marquee matchups: <\/em>The positive outcome of a predictable set of quarterfinals is a blockbuster pair of semis. \u00a0Today we start with Nadal vs. Juan Martin del Potro<\/strong> and then watch the battle for #2: Federer vs. Djokovic.<\/p>\n

It’s been a tough road for del Potro, even with the free pass through the quarterfinals. \u00a0Nadal will be his toughest test yet. \u00a0Nadal is a better hard-court player than he was two years ago, when del Potro won their last three contests, including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 drubbing at the U.S. Open. \u00a0Oddly enough, the last time the Spainard won a head-to-head matchup was two years ago at Indian Wells.<\/p>\n

Sportsbooks give Nadal a comfortable edge: about a 67% chance of winning. \u00a0My system<\/a> is less optimistic for the world #1, at 55%, in part because of that head-to-head record. \u00a0Nadal always seems able to raise his game, but his struggles against Karlovic and Somdev Devvarman<\/strong> make me think that my 55\/45 odds are more accurate than anything higher.<\/p>\n

The other semifinal is equally difficult to pick. \u00a0It would be easy to point to Djokovic’s dominance this week, along with his two recent wins against Federer, and pick him for the win. \u00a0But before Australia and Dubai, Federer came out on top in Shanghai, Basel, and at the World Tour Finals. \u00a0Roger also brings a different game than anything the Serb has seen this week, as he’ll attack far more than a player like Gasquet.<\/p>\n

The betting lines suggest that Djokovic has a 60% chance of winning. \u00a0My algorithm says Federer is the favorite, with a 55% shot. \u00a0But I admit, I’d have a hard time wagering real money against Novak right now.<\/p>\n

I think that wraps things up for today. \u00a0If your schedule doesn’t allow you to watch the semifinals today, I suggest you rearrange your schedule.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bored and quartered: Who would’ve guessed that Rafael Nadal vs. Ivo Karlovic would make for the most exciting men’s quarterfinal at Indian Wells? \u00a0Both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer were impressive yesterday, but they didn’t have to be. \u00a0Richard Gasquet put together a few strings of solid play, including the first few games of the … Continue reading Saturday Topspin: Slam Winner Semifinals<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-daily-recaps","category-indian-wells"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}