{"id":1459,"date":"2013-12-13T12:49:39","date_gmt":"2013-12-13T17:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=1459"},"modified":"2013-12-13T12:49:39","modified_gmt":"2013-12-13T17:49:39","slug":"the-5-biggest-comebacks-of-the-2013-atp-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2013\/12\/13\/the-5-biggest-comebacks-of-the-2013-atp-season\/","title":{"rendered":"The 5 Biggest Comebacks of the 2013 ATP Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Everybody loves a big comeback, but some of the best come-from-behind wins on the ATP tour this year were such unheralded matchups that they’ve already fallen out of the spotlight. \u00a0While everyone else ranks Nadal<\/a>–Djokovic<\/a> matches in their year-end lists, let’s look at the five matches in which the winner had to climb out of the biggest hole.<\/p>\n

To do this, I ranked every match this season by Comeback Factor<\/a> (CF), a stat that identifies the lowest ebb in the match for the eventual winner. \u00a0If a player breaks serve to open the match and sails to victory, his chance of winning never falls below 50%. \u00a0But if he goes down a set and a break, his odds fall much lower. \u00a0If the latter player comes back to win, his CF is much higher.<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0Indian Wells Masters R64: Gilles Simon<\/a> d. Paolo Lorenzi<\/a> 6-3 3-6 7-5 <\/strong>(win probability graph<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Lorenzi went up a double break in the final set by winning the first four games on the trot. \u00a0Simon held twice to force the Italian to serve for it at 5-2. \u00a0Lorenzi went up 40-15 in that service game, earning two match points, before losing four points in a row and dropping serve. \u00a0At 5-4, Simon broke him to 15, then broke again to love to seal the final set, 7-5.<\/p>\n

At 5-2 40-15 in the 3rd set, Lorenzi’s chance of winning was about 99.8%, the highest recorded in a match this year by a player who didn’t end up winning.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=AZVObyMMKbs<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0Queen’s Club R64: Ivan Dodig<\/a> d. James Ward<\/a> 6-7(8) 7-6(2) 7-6(2)\u00a0<\/strong>(win probability graph<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Dodig fought back from nearly the same hole that Simon found himself in, but did so in the second set instead of the third. \u00a0Ward won the first set in a tight tiebreak, then earned an early break in the second. \u00a0He held on until he served at 5-3, when he reached 40-15. \u00a0Dodig won the next four points to erase the break, improving his probability of winning from 0.5% to 21.1%.<\/p>\n

Amazingly, the scenario repeated itself in the third set after Dodig won the second in a tiebreak. \u00a0Ward went up a break and served for the match again at 5-4, but failed to generate another match point. \u00a0The Croatian won a pair of points from 30-30 in that game, then sealed the match in yet another tiebreak.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=xvCuh0YvRow<\/p>\n

Dodig wasn’t so lucky a couple of months later, when he nearly upset Juan Martin del Potro<\/a> in Montreal. \u00a0In this year’s 7th-biggest comeback,\u00a0Delpo came back from a double-break hole in the third set to deny Dodig a place in the third round.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0Madrid Masters R64: Mikhail Youzhny<\/a> d. Fabio Fognini<\/a> 7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(5)\u00a0<\/strong>(win probability graph<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Fognini never had the double break that led to such disaster for Lorenzi and Ward, but he did have something neither of those men did: a triple match point. \u00a0At 3-3 in the deciding set, Fognini broke the Russian then consolidated, leading to a chance to serve for the match at 5-4. \u00a0After winning his first three points for a 40-0 advantage, his win probability climbed as high as 99.1%.<\/p>\n

It wouldn’t go any higher. \u00a0Youzhny won 12 of the next 13 points, breaking the Italian, holding his own serve to love, then earning two match points of his own on the Fognini serve before Fabio gathered himself sufficiently to force a tiebreak. \u00a0Fognini kept up his streakiness to the end, claiming a minibreak to open the tiebreak, dropping five points in a row, and fighting back to 5-5 before finally losing the match.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=v4N6ZILPb0k<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0Roland Garros R32: Tommy Robredo<\/a> d. Gael Monfils<\/a> 2-6 6-7(5) 6-2 7-6(3) 6-2\u00a0<\/strong>(win probability graph<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Monfils won the first two sets, which you would think put Robredo at enough of a disadvantage. \u00a0But the Spaniard’s lowest ebb didn’t come until the fourth set. \u00a0He lost serve in the seventh game, and after fighting off a match point at 3-5, he needed to break serve just to stay alive.<\/p>\n

The Frenchman went up 40-15, earning two more match points and a win probability of 98.9%. \u00a0Robredo won four straight points to get back on serve, easily held, and even challenged Monfils’s own serve (to 0-30) before landing in a tiebreak. \u00a0He won that breaker and, compared to the fourth set, won the fifth with ease.<\/p>\n