{"id":163,"date":"2011-03-22T19:00:25","date_gmt":"2011-03-22T19:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=163"},"modified":"2011-03-22T19:00:25","modified_gmt":"2011-03-22T19:00:25","slug":"hard-court-singles-rankings-32111","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/22\/hard-court-singles-rankings-32111\/","title":{"rendered":"Hard Court Singles Rankings, 3\/21\/11"},"content":{"rendered":"

About two weeks ago, I introduced my ranking system<\/a>. \u00a0Much of the rationale is explained here<\/a>. \u00a0The important thing to keep in mind is that the system is designed to be predictive<\/em>–that is, it values the things that tend to correctly forecast the outcome of matches.<\/p>\n

Since then, I’ve made a few tweaks under the hood. \u00a0For the most part, the changes don’t affect the rankings, they just adjust the differences between players to better reflect surface-specific skills.<\/p>\n

Still, Roger Federer<\/strong> is hanging on at the top, though it’s so close that it should be considered virtually a tie. \u00a0My algorithm to predict the outcome of individual matches also takes head-to-head results into account, and given Novak Djokovic’s<\/strong> recent dominance, that algorithm now gives Djokovic the slight edge in a battle with Federer.<\/p>\n

The real value, here, is a little further down the list, as this system is much better than the ATP rankings at measuring the skill level of players who are scoring big upsets and enjoying recent success. \u00a0To wit, Ivo Karlovic<\/strong> is up to #33 here, in part thanks to his giant-killing run last week. \u00a0Also, my system places Ryan Harrison<\/strong> at #71 and Donald Young<\/strong> at #82 for similar reasons.<\/p>\n

I intended for this to be a top 100, but #101 is Somdev Devvarman<\/strong>, notable due to his string of upsets, which moved him all the way up from #147.<\/p>\n

1   Roger Federer          8191 \n2   Novak Djokovic         8076 \n3   Andy Murray            4749 \n4   Rafael Nadal           4654 \n5   Robin Soderling        4205 \n6   Juan Martin del Potro  4047 \n7   Nikolay Davydenko      2853 \n8   David Ferrer           2772 \n9   Stanislas Wawrinka     2660 \n10  Andy Roddick           2494 \n11  Tomas Berdych          2268 \n12  Gael Monfils           2088 \n13  Marcos Baghdatis       1879 \n14  Mardy Fish             1838 \n15  Marin Cilic            1666 \n16  Fernando Verdasco      1603 \n17  Jurgen Melzer          1565 \n18  David Nalbandian       1547 \n19  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga     1475 \n20  Ivan Ljubicic          1449 \n\n21  Michael Llodra         1385 \n22  Richard Gasquet        1367 \n23  Florian Mayer          1335 \n24  Milos Raonic           1308 \n25  Mikhail Youzhny        1276 \n26  Gilles Simon           1235 \n27  Nicolas Almagro        1209 \n28  Alexander Dolgopolov   1124 \n29  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1038 \n30  Philipp Kohlschreiber  1030 \n31  Viktor Troicki         1020 \n32  Juan Monaco            1011 \n33  Ivo Karlovic            994 \n34  Radek Stepanek          989 \n35  Albert Montanes         974 \n36  Tommy Robredo           885 \n37  Samuel Querrey          840 \n38  Lleyton Hewitt          835 \n39  John Isner              834 \n40  Ernests Gulbis          782 \n\n41  Jeremy Chardy           780 \n42  Feliciano Lopez         765 \n43  Janko Tipsarevic        728 \n44  Julien Benneteau        695 \n45  Kei Nishikori           666 \n46  Xavier Malisse          634 \n47  Jarkko Nieminen         624 \n48  Dmitry Tursunov         603 \n49  Fernando Gonzalez       597 \n50  Juan Carlos Ferrero     596 \n51  Thomaz Bellucci         586 \n52  Andrei Goloubev         513 \n53  Andreas Seppi           484 \n54  Benjamin Becker         482 \n55  Michael Berrer          465 \n56  Thiemo de Bakker        453 \n57  Juan Ignacio Chela      450 \n58  Olivier Rochus          444 \n59  Pablo Cuevas            441 \n60  Igor Andreev            430 \n\n61  Fabio Fognini           427 \n62  Philipp Petzschner      423 \n63  Santiago Giraldo        417 \n64  James Blake             416 \n65  Sergey Stakhovsky       399 \n66  Ivan Dodig              384 \n67  Denis Istomin           382 \n68  Michael Zverev          369 \n69  Robin Haase             364 \n70  Arnaud Clement          364 \n71  Ryan Harrison           360 \n72  Daniel Gimeno           350 \n73  Marcel Granollers       346 \n74  Leonardo Mayer          343 \n75  Robby Ginepri           338 \n76  Paul-Henri Mathieu      335 \n77  Lukasz Kubot            332 \n78  Daniel Brands           330 \n79  Alejandro Falla         327 \n80  Mikhail Kukushkin       320 \n\n81  Dudi Sela               309 \n82  Donald Young            304 \n83  Victor Hanescu          296 \n84  Teimuraz Gabashvili     295 \n85  Grigor Dimitrov         280 \n86  Florent Serra           277 \n87  Lukas Lacko             276 \n88  Horacio Zeballos        276 \n89  Ryan Sweeting           273 \n90  Adrian Mannarino        272 \n91  Yen-Hsun Lu             271 \n92  Kevin Anderson          269 \n93  Rainer Schuettler       267 \n94  Edouard Roger-Vasselin  266 \n95  Richard Berankis        266 \n96  Bernard Tomic           263 \n97  Marco Chiudinelli       261 \n98  Nicolas Mahut           261 \n99  Simon Greul             259 \n100 Frederico Gil           258 \n101 Somdev K. Dev Varman    258<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
About two weeks ago, I introduced my ranking system. \u00a0Much of the rationale is explained here. \u00a0The important thing to keep in mind is that the system is designed to be predictive–that is, it values the things that tend to correctly forecast the outcome of matches. Since then, I’ve made a few tweaks under the … Continue reading Hard Court Singles Rankings, 3\/21\/11<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,91,96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-rankings","category-research"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}