{"id":170,"date":"2011-03-23T15:30:57","date_gmt":"2011-03-23T15:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=170"},"modified":"2011-03-23T15:30:57","modified_gmt":"2011-03-23T15:30:57","slug":"miami-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/23\/miami-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Miami Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>While <strong>Roger Federer<\/strong> still holds a very slight edge in my <a title=\"Hard Court Singles Rankings,\u00a03\/21\/11\" href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/22\/hard-court-singles-rankings-32111\/\">hard-court rankings<\/a>, <strong>Novak Djokovic<\/strong> is the favorite to win in Miami. \u00a0My simulation gives the Serbian a 27.4% chance of winning back-to-back tournaments, while Federer comes in at 19.7%.<\/p>\n<p>For more background on how I generate these projections, <a title=\"Indian Wells\u00a0Projections\" href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/11\/indian-wells-projections\/\">click here<\/a>. \u00a0I&#8217;ve tweaked the system a bit since then; most notably, I discovered that my rankings were slightly underrating the chances of younger players and overrating those of older players. \u00a0I&#8217;ve adjusted my forecasts accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>Enjoy!<\/p>\n<pre>Player               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W \n(1)Rafael Nadal      100% 84% 76.8% 62.0% 48.8% 28.5% 14.3% \nJeremy Chardy        50%   9%  5.2%  2.3%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% \nKei Nishikori        50%   8%  4.5%  1.9%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0% \nFeliciano Lopez      69%  43%  7.3%  2.7%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0% \nRichard Berankis     31%  12%  1.5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(26)Juan I Chela     100% 45%  4.8%  1.4%  0.4%  0.0%  0.0% \n(21)Dolgopolov       100% 74% 40.0% 12.8%  5.8%  1.7%  0.4% \nAndreas Seppi        52%  14%  4.3%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% \nMischa Zverev        48%  12%  3.7%  0.7%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% \nTeymuraz Gabashvili  44%   9%  2.4%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nDaniel Brands        56%  13%  3.6%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(15)JW Tsonga        100% 78% 45.9% 14.4%  7.5%  2.6%  0.6% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(11)Nicolas Almagro  100% 87% 54.4% 25.3%  8.3%  2.7%  0.6% \nFederico Gil         61%  10%  2.8%  0.4%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Paul Capdeville   39%   4%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nLeonardo Mayer       35%  12%  3.6%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(WC)Ivo Karlovic     65%  30% 11.7%  4.2%  1.0%  0.2%  0.0% \n(20)Albert Montanes  100% 58% 26.7%  9.5%  2.5%  0.6%  0.1% \n(28)Ernests Gulbis   100% 91% 34.6% 17.1%  5.0%  1.3%  0.3% \nCarlos Berlocq       82%   8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(WC)Jack Sock        18%   1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nAdrian Mannarino     72%  11%  3.5%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nRamirez Hidalgo      28%   0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(7)Tomas Berdych     100% 89% 61.4% 41.5% 17.4%  7.5%  2.3% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(3)Roger Federer     100% 92% 80.4% 64.1% 50.0% 34.3% 19.7% \nFabio Fognini        39%   3%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nRadek Stepanek       61%   5%  2.5%  0.9%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0% \nSergiy Stakhovsky    56%  18%  1.8%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Grigor Dimitrov   44%  11%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(32)Juan Monaco      100% 70% 13.0%  5.5%  2.2%  0.6%  0.1% \n(22)Marcos Baghdatis 100% 85% 54.0% 18.1%  9.6%  4.0%  1.1% \nBlaz Kavcic          43%   7%  1.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Olivier Rochus    57%   8%  2.2%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nPere Riba            39%   6%  0.8%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nYen-Hsun Lu          61%  14%  2.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(13)Mikhail Youzhny  100% 81% 38.9%  9.7%  4.3%  1.4%  0.3% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(10)Jurgen Melzer    100% 76% 37.0% 16.3%  4.8%  1.8%  0.4% \nPhilipp Petzschner   64%  18%  3.9%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nFlorent Serra        36%   6%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nJanko Tipsarevic     57%  15%  6.5%  2.2%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% \nRobin Haase          43%   7%  2.5%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(18)Marin Cilic      100% 78% 49.1% 26.4%  9.1%  4.0%  1.2% \n(25)Gilles Simon     100% 78% 34.7% 16.9%  4.7%  1.4%  0.3% \n(WC)Ryan Harrison    62%  17%  3.7%  0.9%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Rainer Schuettler 38%   5%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nPablo Cuevas         52%  10%  3.9%  1.1%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% \nMichael Berrer       48%   6%  2.0%  0.5%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(8)Andy Roddick      100% 83% 55.3% 33.9% 13.5%  6.4%  2.3% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(6)David Ferrer      100% 96% 65.3% 40.1% 18.5%  5.9%  2.5% \n(q)Robert Kendrick   49%   2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Igor Kunitsyn     51%   2%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nSomdev Devvarman     49%   6%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nPotito Starace       51%   8%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(31)Milos Raonic     100% 86% 32.6% 16.0%  5.9%  1.6%  0.5% \n(23)Michael Llodra   100% 67% 26.5%  9.1%  2.6%  0.5%  0.1% \nXavier Malisse       67%  25%  5.6%  1.2%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Ryan Sweeting     33%   8%  1.4%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nBenjamin Becker      54%   9%  3.7%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nMarcel Granollers    46%   8%  2.4%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(12)Stan Wawrinka    100% 83% 60.3% 32.1% 14.5%  4.5%  1.8% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(14)Mardy Fish       100% 73% 40.4% 12.3%  5.5%  1.4%  0.4% \nJulien Benneteau     61%  18%  6.0%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0% \nGimeno-Traver        39%   8%  1.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nIvan Ljubicic        85%  39% 19.3%  4.8%  1.7%  0.3%  0.1% \n(q)Paolo Lorenzi     15%   1%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(17)Richard Gasquet  100% 60% 32.3%  9.5%  4.0%  0.8%  0.2% \n(29)Kohlschreiber    100% 16%  5.1%  2.2%  0.7%  0.1%  0.0% \n(PR)Del Potro        100% 83% 50.8% 38.6% 25.8% 11.5%  6.1% \nRichardo Mello       0%    0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nIvan Dodig           38%   5%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nAndrey Golubev       62%  12%  1.6%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(4)Robin Soderling   100% 84% 42.1% 31.0% 20.1%  8.5%  4.2% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(5)Andy Murray       100% 99% 87.6% 65.1% 30.5% 18.9% 10.8% \nVictor Hanescu       55%   0%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Alex Bogomolov    45%   0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nSantiago Giraldo     56%  21%  2.4%  0.6%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nIgor Andreev         44%  15%  0.9%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(30)John Isner       100% 65%  8.9%  3.5%  0.5%  0.2%  0.0% \n(24)Garcia-Lopez     100% 35% 15.9%  3.1%  0.5%  0.1%  0.0% \nNikolay Davydenko    87%  61% 39.6% 15.1%  4.9%  2.3%  1.0% \nKevin Anderson       13%   3%  0.8%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(WC)Bernard Tomic    68%  11%  1.8%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nPablo Andujar        32%   3%  0.3%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(9)Verdasco          100% 86% 41.5% 12.0%  3.1%  1.1%  0.4% \n\nPlayer               R64  R32   R16    QF    SF     F     W\n(16)Viktor Troicki   100% 77% 43.0%  5.9%  1.4%  0.4%  0.1% \nTobias Kamke         51%  13%  3.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Marsel Ilhan      49%  10%  2.6%  0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \nJarkko Nieminen      59%  22%  9.6%  0.8%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nMikhail Kukushkin    41%  12%  4.1%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \n(19)Sam Querrey      100% 66% 37.4%  6.6%  1.9%  0.5%  0.1% \n(27)Thomaz Bellucci  100% 69%  8.5%  3.9%  0.8%  0.2%  0.0% \n(q)Michael Russell   31%   7%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(WC)James Blake      69%  25%  0.4%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(q)Donald Young      47%   3%  1.1%  0.3%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0% \nDenis Istomin        53%   0%  0.2%  0.1%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0% \n(2)Novak Djokovic    100% 97% 89.7% 81.5% 55.9% 41.2% 27.4%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While Roger Federer still holds a very slight edge in my hard-court rankings, Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win in Miami. \u00a0My simulation gives the Serbian a 27.4% chance of winning back-to-back tournaments, while Federer comes in at 19.7%. For more background on how I generate these projections, click here. \u00a0I&#8217;ve tweaked the system &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/23\/miami-projections\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Miami Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,71,96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-miami","category-research"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}