{"id":186,"date":"2011-03-26T13:25:20","date_gmt":"2011-03-26T13:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=186"},"modified":"2011-03-26T13:25:20","modified_gmt":"2011-03-26T13:25:20","slug":"saturday-topspin-all-figured-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/26\/saturday-topspin-all-figured-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Topspin: All Figured Out"},"content":{"rendered":"

Backwards: <\/em>Just when you think you have it all figured out, there’s a day of tennis like yesterday’s. \u00a0The upsets I suggested didn’t happen, and the automatic wins turned into disasters for the seeds.<\/p>\n

At least Novak Djokovic<\/strong> is keeping things predictable. \u00a0He beat Denis Istomin<\/strong> 6-0 6-1. \u00a0The big question is not whether he can bagel James Blake<\/strong> in the third round, but whether he can bagel Blake twice. \u00a0For those of you keeping score at home, that’s four 6-0’s in seven matches, and three opponents who only managed a single game. \u00a0And Istomin, Viktor Troicki<\/strong>, and Ernests Gulbis<\/strong> are hardly unqualified to play at this level.<\/p>\n

Center court: <\/em>Before Djokovic took care of business, it was bad news for the big names. \u00a0Ivan Dodig<\/strong> was up a break on Robin Soderling<\/strong> in the third set before the Swede came charging back and escaped the upset. \u00a0He’ll live to see another day, meaning he gets to play Juan Martin del Potro<\/strong>, himself a narrow victor over Philipp Kohlschreiber<\/strong>. \u00a0At this point, Soderling can hardly be considered much of a contender for the title.<\/p>\n

The shocker came a bit later, when Andy Murray<\/strong> fell to Alex Bogomolov<\/strong>. \u00a0I’m not sure whether this is better or worse than a loss to Donald Young<\/strong>; both make you wonder how much longer Murray can stay in the top 10. \u00a0Bogie is hardly a master returner, and Murray failed to win even 55% of first serve points. \u00a0I can just imagine him standing six feet behind the baseline, sending unforced errors in every direction.<\/p>\n

Two more surprises: <\/em>I didn’t think Pablo Andujar<\/strong> could beat Bernard Tomic<\/strong>; almost all of Andujar’s success has come on clay. \u00a0Once he beat Tomic, it was a no-brainer that he’d make easy picking for Fernando Verdasco<\/strong>. \u00a0Verdasco won the first set on schedule, then lost a second-set tiebreak and fell in the third. \u00a0It must have been very close, as there were only two breaks in the match, and Verdasco won more than half of the total points.<\/p>\n

Then there’s Stanislas Wawrinka<\/strong>. \u00a0Marcel Granollers<\/strong> somehow bagelled him in about 20 minutes to open the match. \u00a0Stan made it interesting, winning a second-set tiebreak, but it Granollers eventually came out on top. \u00a0The last time Wawrinka lost a set at love was in April; the last time he was bagelled on a hard court was to Jurgen Melzer in the 2008 Olympics.<\/p>\n

Today: <\/em>I’m going to say it again: It looks like a fairly predictable day of tennis. \u00a0It can’t possibly turn out like yesterday, right?<\/p>\n

Of the top few seeds, Rafael Nadal<\/strong> has the relatively tough draw, facing Kei Nishikori<\/strong> in the night session. \u00a0I can’t imagine Roger Federer<\/strong> will suddenly forget how to beat Radek Stepanek<\/strong>, or that Andy Roddick<\/strong> will stumble against Pablo Cuevas<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

According to sportsbook odds, the tightest match of the day is Juan Ignacio Chela<\/strong> against the slightly-favored Feliciano Lopez<\/strong>. \u00a0The Vegas odds give Lopez about a 53% chance of winning; my system goes further and favors the Spainard to the tune of 63%.<\/p>\n

The other “close” match is Florian Mayer<\/strong> vs. Albert Montanes<\/strong>. \u00a0Montanes is the seed; Mayer is the better hard-court player. \u00a0Sportsbooks say Mayer has a 60% chance of winning; I give him 65%.<\/p>\n

Finally, Olivier Rochus<\/strong> will see if he can continue his current hot streaks, both in March and at Miami. \u00a0In last year’s second round, he defeated Novak Djokovic. \u00a0This year’s task is much easier: he faces Marcos Baghdatis, who hasn’t won a match since early Februrary in Rotterdam and lost his last set in Indian Wells to Somdev Devvarman<\/strong> at love. \u00a0Sportsbooks give the Belgian about a 40% chance of pulling the upset.<\/p>\n

Challengers: <\/em>This time, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe<\/strong> couldn’t beat Go Soeda<\/strong>. \u00a0Stebe still reached his third straight challenger semifinal, so his ranking will continue to climb. \u00a0In tonight’s final, Soeda faces Matthias Bachinger<\/strong>, another German having a solid 2011. \u00a0Bachinger is in his third challenger-level semifinal this year.<\/p>\n

In Bath yesterday, Nicholas Mahut<\/strong> fell in the quarterfinals, while Dmitri Tursunov<\/strong> kept his comeback churning. \u00a0The Russian will face Brit wild card Daniel Evans<\/strong> today.<\/p>\n

See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Backwards: Just when you think you have it all figured out, there’s a day of tennis like yesterday’s. \u00a0The upsets I suggested didn’t happen, and the automatic wins turned into disasters for the seeds. At least Novak Djokovic is keeping things predictable. \u00a0He beat Denis Istomin 6-0 6-1. \u00a0The big question is not whether he … Continue reading Saturday Topspin: All Figured Out<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,24,71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challengers","category-daily-recaps","category-miami"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}