{"id":1925,"date":"2015-11-09T10:15:32","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T10:15:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=1925"},"modified":"2015-11-09T10:15:32","modified_gmt":"2015-11-09T10:15:32","slug":"the-difficulty-and-importance-of-finding-the-backhand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2015\/11\/09\/the-difficulty-and-importance-of-finding-the-backhand\/","title":{"rendered":"The Difficulty (and Importance) of Finding the Backhand"},"content":{"rendered":"

Italian translation at settesei.it<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

One disadvantage of some one-handed backhands is that they tend to sit up a little more when they’re hit crosscourt. That gives an opponent more time to prepare and, often, enough time to run around a crosscourt shot and hit a forehand,\u00a0which opens up more tactical possibilities.<\/p>\n

With the 700 men’s matches<\/a> in the Match Charting Project database<\/a> (please contribute<\/a>!), we can start to quantify this disadvantage–if indeed it has a negative effect on one-handers. Once we’ve determined whether one-handers can find their opponents’ backhands, we can try to answer the more important question of how much it matters.<\/p>\n

The scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let’s take all baseline rallies between right-handers. Your opponent hits a shot to your backhand side, and you have three choices: drive (flat or topspin) backhand, slice backhand, or run around to hit a forehand. You’ll occasionally go for a winner down the line and you’ll sometimes be forced to hit a weak reply down the middle, but usually, your goal is to return the shot crosscourt, ideally finding your opponent’s backhand.<\/p>\n

Considering all righty-righty matchups including at least one player among the last week’s\u00a0ATP top 72 (I wanted to include Nicolas Almagro<\/a>), here are the frequency and results of each of those choices:<\/p>\n

SHOT    FREQ  FH REP  BH REP    UFE  WINNER  PT WON  \nALL             9.9%   68.1%  10.8%    5.8%   43.1%  \nSLICE  11.9%   34.1%   49.5%   7.1%    0.6%   40.2%  \nFH     44.9%    2.8%   69.0%  13.0%    9.8%   42.1%  \nBH     43.3%   10.7%   72.2%   9.5%    3.1%   45.0%  \n                                                     \n1HBH   42.6%   12.0%   69.5%   9.3%    3.8%   44.2%  \n2HBH   43.5%   10.0%   73.4%   9.6%    2.8%   45.4%<\/pre>\n
“FH REP” and “BH REP” refer to a forehand or backhand reply, and we can see just how much shot selection matters in keeping the ball away from your opponent’s forehand. A slice does a very poor job, while an inside-out forehand almost guarantees a backhand reply, though it comes with an increased risk of error.<\/p>\n
The differences between one- and two-handed backhands aren’t as stark. One-handers don’t find the backhand quite as frequently, though they hit a few more winners. They hit drive backhands a bit less often, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are hitting forehands instead. On average, two-handers<\/em> hit a few more forehands from the backhand corner, while one-handers are forced to hit more slices.<\/p>\n
One hand, many types<\/strong><\/p>\n
Not all one-handed backhands are created equal, and these numbers bear that out. Stanislas Wawrinka<\/a>‘s backhand is as effective as the best two-handers, while Roger Federer<\/a>‘s is typically the jumping-off point for discussions of why the one-hander is dying.<\/p>\n
Here are the 28 players for whom we have at least 500 instances\u00a0(excluding service returns) when the player responded to a shot hit to his backhand corner. For each, I’ve shown how often he chose a drive backhand or forehand, and the frequency with which he found the backhand–excluding his own errors and winners.<\/p>\n
Player                 BH  BH FRQ  FIND BH%  FH FRQ  FIND BH%  \nAlexandr Dolgopolov     2   45.7%     94.2%   43.3%     98.7%  \nKei Nishikori           2   51.1%     94.0%   38.9%     98.1%  \nAndy Murray             2   41.0%     92.4%   46.5%     98.6%  \nStanislas Wawrinka      1   48.6%     92.1%   37.5%     98.0%  \nBernard Tomic           2   33.8%     91.7%   43.8%     97.9%  \nNovak Djokovic          2   47.2%     91.7%   41.4%     98.5%  \nKevin Anderson          2   41.0%     91.5%   45.8%     96.6%  \nBorna Coric             2   46.5%     90.7%   44.2%     96.9%  \nPablo Cuevas            1   41.9%     90.6%   54.5%     96.5%  \nMarin Cilic             2   45.4%     89.7%   43.3%     97.2%  \n                                                               \nPlayer                 BH  BH FRQ  FIND BH%  FH FRQ  FIND BH%  \nTomas Berdych           2   41.6%     89.3%   44.2%     97.5%  \nPablo Carreno Busta     2   55.4%     87.8%   41.1%     93.5%  \nFabio Fognini           2   46.0%     87.4%   47.0%     96.1%  \nRichard Gasquet         1   57.2%     87.3%   32.1%     96.8%  \nAndreas Seppi           2   40.3%     87.2%   50.0%     93.9%  \nNicolas Almagro         1   53.6%     86.5%   39.3%     98.0%  \nDominic Thiem           1   38.5%     86.2%   50.0%     96.5%  \nGael Monfils            2   48.0%     85.3%   46.3%     85.3%  \nDavid Ferrer            2   48.2%     84.9%   40.4%     97.1%  \nRoger Federer           1   42.7%     84.8%   43.6%     94.5%  \n                                                               \nPlayer                 BH  BH FRQ  FIND BH%  FH FRQ  FIND BH%  \nGilles Simon            2   46.9%     84.6%   46.5%     94.6%  \nDavid Goffin            2   45.4%     84.6%   45.7%     94.9%  \nRoberto Bautista Agut   2   39.6%     83.3%   46.7%     98.4%  \nJo Wilfried Tsonga      2   43.5%     82.0%   44.5%     96.3%  \nGrigor Dimitrov         1   41.4%     78.6%   39.4%     92.8%  \nMilos Raonic            2   31.5%     63.5%   56.5%     94.3%  \nJack Sock               2   27.0%     62.5%   62.9%     96.3%  \nTommy Robredo           1   26.6%     56.1%   62.3%     88.4%<\/pre>\n
One-handers Wawrinka, Pablo Cuevas<\/a>, and Richard Gasquet<\/a> (barely) are among the top half of these players, in terms of finding the backhand with their own backhand. Federer and his would-be clone Grigor Dimitrov<\/a> are at the other end of the spectrum.<\/p>\n
Taking all 60 righties I included in this analysis (not just those shown above), there is a mild negative correlation (r^2 = -0.16) between a player’s likelihood of finding the opponent’s backhand with his own and the rate at which he chooses to hit a forehand from that corner. In other words, the worse he is at finding the backhand, the more inside-out forehands he hits. Tommy Robredo<\/a> and Jack Sock<\/a> are the one- and two-handed poster boys for this, struggling more than any other players to find the backhand, and compensating by hitting as many forehands as possible.<\/p>\n
However, Federer–and, to an even greater extent, Dimitrov–don’t fit this mold. The average one-hander runs around balls in their backhand corner 44.6% of the time, while Fed is one percentage point under\u00a0that and Dimitrov is below 40%. Federer is perceived to be particularly aggressive with his inside-out (and inside-in) forehands, but that may be because he chooses his moments wisely.<\/p>\n
Ultimate outcomes<\/strong><\/p>\n
Let’s look at this from one more angle. In the end, what matters is whether you win the point, no matter how you get there. For each of the 28 players listed above, I calculated the rate at which they won points for each shot selection. For instance, when Novak Djokovic<\/a> hits a drive backhand from his backhand corner, he wins the point 45.4% of the time, compared to 42.3% when he hits a slice and 42.4% when he hits a forehand.<\/p>\n
Against his own average, Djokovic is about 3.6% better when he chooses (or to think of it another way, is able to choose) a drive backhand. For all of these players, here’s how each of the three shot choices compare to their average outcome:<\/p>\n
Player                 BH   BH W   SL W   FH W  \nDominic Thiem           1  1.209  0.633  0.924  \nDavid Goffin            2  1.111  0.656  0.956  \nGrigor Dimitrov         1  1.104  0.730  1.022  \nGilles Simon            2  1.097  0.922  0.913  \nTomas Berdych           2  1.085  0.884  0.957  \nPablo Carreno Busta     2  1.081  0.982  0.892  \nKei Nishikori           2  1.070  0.777  0.965  \nRoberto Bautista Agut   2  1.055  0.747  1.027  \nStanislas Wawrinka      1  1.050  0.995  0.936  \nBorna Coric             2  1.049  1.033  0.941  \n                                                \nPlayer                 BH   BH W   SL W   FH W  \nBernard Tomic           2  1.049  1.037  0.943  \nJack Sock               2  1.049  0.811  1.010  \nGael Monfils            2  1.048  1.100  0.938  \nFabio Fognini           2  1.048  0.775  0.987  \nMilos Raonic            2  1.048  0.996  0.974  \nNicolas Almagro         1  1.046  0.848  0.964  \nKevin Anderson          2  1.038  1.056  0.950  \nNovak Djokovic          2  1.036  0.966  0.969  \nAndy Murray             2  1.031  1.039  0.962  \nRoger Federer           1  1.023  1.005  0.976  \n                                                \nPlayer                 BH   BH W   SL W   FH W  \nRichard Gasquet         1  1.020  0.795  1.033  \nAndreas Seppi           2  1.019  0.883  1.008  \nDavid Ferrer            2  1.018  0.853  1.020  \nAlexandr Dolgopolov     2  1.010  1.010  0.987  \nMarin Cilic             2  1.006  1.009  0.991  \nPablo Cuevas            1  0.987  0.425  1.048  \nJo Wilfried Tsonga      2  0.956  0.805  1.095  \nTommy Robredo           1  0.845  0.930  1.079<\/pre>\n
In this view, Dimitrov–along with his fellow one-handed flame carrier Dominic Thiem<\/a>–looks a lot better. His crosscourt backhand doesn’t find many backhands, but it is by far his most effective shot from his own backhand corner. We would expect him to win more points with a drive backhand than with a slice (since he probably opts for slices in more defensive positions), but it’s surprising to me that his backhand is so much better than the inside-out forehand.<\/p>\n
While Dimitrov and Thiem are more extreme than most, almost all of these players have better results with crosscourt drive backhands than with inside-out (or inside-in forehands). Only five–including Robredo but, shockingly, not including Sock–win more points after hitting forehands from the backhand corner.<\/p>\n
It’s clear that one-handers do, in fact, have a slightly more difficult time forcing their opponents to hit backhands. It’s much less clear how much it matters. Even Federer, with his famously dodgy backhand and even more famously dominant inside-out forehand, is slightly better off hitting a backhand from his backhand corner. We’ll never know what would happen if Fed had Djokovic’s backhand instead, but even though Federer’s one-hander isn’t finding as many backhands as Novak’s two-hander does, it’s getting the job done at a surprisingly high rate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Italian translation at settesei.it One disadvantage of some one-handed backhands is that they tend to sit up a little more when they’re hit crosscourt. That gives an opponent more time to prepare and, often, enough time to run around a crosscourt shot and hit a forehand,\u00a0which opens up more tactical possibilities. With the 700 men’s … Continue reading The Difficulty (and Importance) of Finding the Backhand<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,65,96,110],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-backhands","category-match-charting","category-research","category-tactics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1925\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}