{"id":238,"date":"2011-04-09T13:33:21","date_gmt":"2011-04-09T13:33:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=238"},"modified":"2011-04-09T13:33:21","modified_gmt":"2011-04-09T13:33:21","slug":"saturday-topspin-tiebreak-monster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/09\/saturday-topspin-tiebreak-monster\/","title":{"rendered":"Saturday Topspin: Tiebreak Monster"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Tennis:” <\/em>I’m glad that yesterday’s match between Ivo Karlovic<\/strong> and John Isner<\/strong> wasn’t televised. \u00a0It made me angry just checking the score occasionally. \u00a0The best part about a quarterfinal between these two one-dimensional players? \u00a0One of them had to lose.<\/p>\n

Ok, that’s a little harsh. \u00a0Based on the stats the ATP dribbles out to us, Isner served more cleanly, allowing only one break point. \u00a0Karlovic allowed 11–amazingly, the players traded breaks of serve in the second set–and didn’t serve as consistently as Isner did.<\/p>\n

In a match like this, however, the numbers don’t matter for much. \u00a0It all came down to a third-set tiebreak, and there, Karlovic was a tiny bit better. \u00a0Final score: 7-6(2) 6-7(2) 7-6(9). \u00a0Good riddance.<\/p>\n

It wasn’t all bad for Isner–he came back with Sam Querrey<\/strong> to win a doubles semifinal against Eric Butorac<\/strong> and Jean-Julien Rojer<\/strong>. \u00a0Isner and Querrey will face the Bryan brothers<\/strong> in the final.<\/p>\n

Backing it up: <\/em>On a day when Karlovic, Isner, Ryan Sweeting<\/strong>, and Mardy Fish<\/strong> all played, it’s surprising to say that the dominant serving performance of the quarterfinals belonged to … Kei Nishikori<\/strong>. \u00a0He won a higher percentage of service points than any one else in the round, and he won an astounding 22 of 23 points when his first offering went in.<\/p>\n

Nishikori simply dismantled Fish in the only straight-set victory of the day. \u00a0Even if he loses today, he’ll jump to a new career high ranking of #53; if he wins the semifinal match, he’ll crack the top 50 for the first time.<\/p>\n

Matchups: <\/em>Nishikori will play Pablo Cuevas<\/strong>, the only other seeded player left in the draw. \u00a0Cuevas dropped his first set yesterday to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez<\/strong> but came charging back despite missing more than half of his first serves. \u00a0The oddsmakers have Cuevas as the very slight favorite there; my rankings give Nishikori a substantial edge.<\/p>\n

The other semi pits Karlovic against Sweeting. \u00a0If nothing else, the pairing guarantees a rarity of some kind in Sunday’s final. \u00a0Either a qualifier (Ivo) or a wild card (Sweeting) will play for the championship. \u00a0Here, sportsbooks are much more confident, suggesting that Karlovic has about a 65% chance of winning. \u00a0 \u00a0My system is a little more favorable to the American, but still puts Ivo’s chances around 60%.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere: <\/em>Despite some early upsets, three of the four semifinalists in Casablanca are seeds; top seed Albert Montanes<\/strong> is starting his match against Pablo Andujar<\/strong> as I write. \u00a0It may be time to follow Andujar more closely–he beat Fernando Verdasco<\/strong> in Miami for his first major hard-court accomplishment, and he’ll ascend to a career high around #65 even if he loses today.<\/p>\n

The other spot in the finals will be determined between Potito Starace<\/strong> and Victor Hanescu<\/strong>–it’s a particularly important match for the Romanian as he defends his finalist points from last year.<\/p>\n

Yesterday<\/a> I wrote about the cheap points available at the Recife challenger. \u00a0Tiago Fernandes<\/strong> won the quarterfinal between wild cards, and today he’ll face his first opponent of the tournament inside the top #500. \u00a0Julio Silva<\/strong>, the man he’ll play today, is no world-beater, but the odds strongly suggest that he’s a Fernandes-beater. \u00a0(There are some betting lines on the match, and surprisingly, Silva is given only a 70% chance of winning.)<\/p>\n

Still, Fernandes will get 29 ranking points for his efforts, more than is given to the winner of most futures events. \u00a0And it’s arguable that he has even played a futures-level draw.<\/p>\n

Monte Carlo: <\/em>Qualifying in Monaco is underway, and the draw<\/a> is out. \u00a0Novak Djokovic<\/strong> withdrew, but that still leaves eight of the top ten ranked players in the world–only Djokovic and Robin Soderling<\/strong> aren’t playing.<\/p>\n

I’ll cover that in more depth tomorrow. \u00a0For now, it’s worth mentioning that Roger Federer’s<\/strong> possible second-round opponent is Philipp Kohlschreiber<\/strong>, a man who might be playing well enough these days to make for an early upset.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, I’m shaping up my clay-court rankings. \u00a0Once the qualifers are placed, I’ll post my tournament odds. \u00a0In other words, you can look forward to a Monte Carlo simulation<\/a> of the Monte Carlo Masters.<\/p>\n

See you tomorrow!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Tennis:” I’m glad that yesterday’s match between Ivo Karlovic and John Isner wasn’t televised. \u00a0It made me angry just checking the score occasionally. \u00a0The best part about a quarterfinal between these two one-dimensional players? \u00a0One of them had to lose. Ok, that’s a little harsh. \u00a0Based on the stats the ATP dribbles out to us, … Continue reading Saturday Topspin: Tiebreak Monster<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challengers","category-daily-recaps"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}