{"id":241,"date":"2011-04-10T14:06:25","date_gmt":"2011-04-10T14:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=241"},"modified":"2011-04-10T14:06:25","modified_gmt":"2011-04-10T14:06:25","slug":"sunday-topspin-missing-the-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/04\/10\/sunday-topspin-missing-the-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Sunday Topspin: Missing the Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"

Milos on clay: <\/em>The Monte Carlo draw isn’t entirely set, with a few qualifying matches left to play, but the first round is already underway. \u00a0Hometown hero Ivan Ljubicic<\/strong> kicked things off with a 6-1 6-2 trouncing of Jeremy Chardy<\/strong>, and Milos Raonic<\/strong> has just won his first ATP-level match on clay against Michael Llodra<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

And a weird, weird match it was. \u00a0Unfortunately the ATP website doesn’t appear to have posted stats for the match; we’ll have to stick with “weird” based only on the final score of 6-3 0-6 6-0. \u00a0Raonic displayed some inconsistency at Indian Wells, and it’s easy to imagine Llodra posting a result like this.<\/p>\n

Still, it’s a good start for the Canadian. \u00a0With no points to defend, even a modest level of success in the clay season will keep him heading up the rankings. \u00a0Next, he’ll face either Alexandr Dolgopolov<\/strong> or Ernests Gulbis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

ATP finals: <\/em>Today, Potito Starace<\/strong> plays Pablo Andujar<\/strong> for the championship in Casablanca. \u00a0After that match, Starace is slated to head to Monte Carlo for an opening round match against a qualifier. \u00a0What makes this noteworthy is that, among the four finalists this week, Starace is the only one who even made the cut<\/em> for the main draw in Monte Carlo. \u00a0Andujar intended to play qualifying before his success this week prevented it.<\/p>\n

Starace just barely got past Victor Hanescu<\/strong> to reach the final, needing a third-set tiebreak to do so. \u00a0Andujar’s semi, against top seed Albert Montanes<\/strong>, was just as topsy-turvy, despite the more pedestrian score of 6-4 6-4. \u00a0The match included 29 break points, including 16 chances for Montanes. \u00a0Alas, Montanes only seized three chances while Andujar took advantage of 5 of 13, and that was the difference.<\/p>\n

Oddsmakers give Starace the edge here, with about a 57% chance of winning. \u00a0Based solely on rankings and results, the Italian is better than that. \u00a0But Andujar’s recent results suggest he could be primed for the upset.<\/p>\n

In Houston, the final will be decided between Kei Nishikori<\/strong> and Ryan Sweeting<\/strong>. \u00a0Both won yesterday in straight sets, Sweeting out-serving Ivo Karlovic<\/strong> to accomplish the feat. \u00a0Nishikori got past Pablo Cuevas<\/strong> despite missing more than half of his first serves. \u00a0Cuevas was more successful with his first offerings, but he won only half of his service points, a rate that isn’t going to win you any matches, no matter what the surface.<\/p>\n

Normally, the appearance of a wild card in the final of an ATP-level event would be attention-grabbing. \u00a0Given the results of U.S. tournaments so far this year, it’s getting to be a habit. \u00a0Raonic reached the final in Memphis on a wild card, and Juan Martin del Potro<\/strong>, also on a WC, came one match short of the same mark.<\/p>\n

As great a story as it would be if Sweeting won his first ATP title, the odds are against it. \u00a0Sportsbooks suggest that Nishikori has a 69% chance of winning today, and my clay rankings say 73%. \u00a0Nishikori has had the superior tournament, as well, knocking out the top seed Mardy Fish<\/strong> as well as two guys, Cuevas and Igor Andreev<\/strong>, who can be formidable on clay.<\/p>\n

When in Rome: <\/em>One more note for today. \u00a0The main draw for next week’s Rome challenger is set, and it’s one of the strongest challenger-level fields of the year, including many of the young players who have excelled so far this season.<\/p>\n

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe<\/strong> came through qualifying (the last time he’ll have to do so at this level, I hope), and will face what, sadly, is a cupcake draw: yet another wild card appearance for Thomas Muster<\/strong>. \u00a0Stebe’s nemesis from the Asian swing, Uladzimir Ignatik<\/strong>, got the opposite treatment, as he’ll begin his tournament against top seed Andreas Haider-Maurer<\/strong>. \u00a0Also in the draw are youngsters-to-watch Evgeny Donskoy<\/strong>, Thomas Schoorel<\/strong>, and Martin Klizan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

As soon as the qualifiers are placed in the Monte Carlo draw, I’ll post some tournament odds. \u00a0That’ will probably be later today, so be sure to check back in.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Milos on clay: The Monte Carlo draw isn’t entirely set, with a few qualifying matches left to play, but the first round is already underway. \u00a0Hometown hero Ivan Ljubicic kicked things off with a 6-1 6-2 trouncing of Jeremy Chardy, and Milos Raonic has just won his first ATP-level match on clay against Michael Llodra. … Continue reading Sunday Topspin: Missing the Cut<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,24,74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challengers","category-daily-recaps","category-monte-carlo"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}