Clay court rankings and projections are tough. \u00a0Most of the top 50 ATP players only compete on clay for a couple months of the year, so at the beginning of the clay-court swing, we’re using surface-specific results from almost a year ago; at the end, we’re depending heavily on each player’s recent results.<\/p>\n
Of course, the very top of the list is easy. \u00a0Rafael Nadal<\/strong> hasn’t lost a clay court match since the 2009 French Open. \u00a0It gets messy soon after that, since Nadal left the rest of the field fighting for crumbs. \u00a0Roger Federer<\/strong> is the clear #2 in this field, with Andy Murray<\/strong> a distant third. \u00a0(And maybe he should be even more distant.)<\/p>\n These projections are clay-specific, as you can probably tell by some of the percentages. \u00a0My clay rankings, however, are heavily regressed back to overall rankings so, for instance, Milos Raonic<\/strong> gets plenty of credit for his recent success on hard courts. \u00a0(And today he justified that credit.)<\/p>\n The tournament organizers made it tough for me to do pure projections, since four main draw matches were complete by the time qualifiers were placed. \u00a0Thus, the numbers are below are done as if I didn’t know anything about the outcome of today’s main draw matches. \u00a0I used rankings generated last Monday, so I might be selling Potito Starace<\/strong> (and, to a lesser extent, Victor Hanescu<\/strong>) a little short by excluding results from Casablanca.<\/p>\n Enjoy!<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Clay court rankings and projections are tough. \u00a0Most of the top 50 ATP players only compete on clay for a couple months of the year, so at the beginning of the clay-court swing, we’re using surface-specific results from almost a year ago; at the end, we’re depending heavily on each player’s recent results. Of course, … Continue reading Monte Carlo Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,74,96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-monte-carlo","category-research"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Player R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(1)Rafael Nadal 100% 92.7% 79.9% 66.8% 52.4% 36.6%\n(q)Julien Benneteau 54% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%\nJarkko Nieminen 46% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%\n(q)Vincent Millot 26% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%\nGuillermo Garcia-Lopez 74% 31.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%\nDenis Istomin 27% 12.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%\n(13)Richard Gasquet 73% 49.8% 10.3% 5.3% 2.4% 0.9% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 59% 35.2% 17.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6%\nJuan Monaco 41% 21.6% 8.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%\nIvan Ljubicic 55% 25.5% 10.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2%\nJeremy Chardy 45% 17.7% 6.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%\n(q)Olivier Rochus 46% 8.7% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%\nJuan Ignacio Chela 54% 12.4% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%\n(5)(WC)Tomas Berdych 100% 78.9% 50.5% 14.7% 7.8% 3.2% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(3)(WC)Andy Murray 100% 70.6% 54.3% 38.4% 16.5% 8.7%\n(WC)Radek Stepanek 30% 5.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%\nMarcos Baghdatis 70% 23.5% 14.5% 7.8% 2.3% 0.8%\nAlbert Montanes 64% 30.9% 8.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2%\nXavier Malisse 36% 11.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%\nThomaz Bellucci 52% 30.9% 10.1% 4.7% 1.1% 0.3%\n(16)Gilles Simon 48% 27.0% 7.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(10)Mikhail Youzhny 52% 38.1% 18.3% 7.0% 1.7% 0.5%\nFlorian Mayer 48% 33.3% 13.8% 4.8% 1.1% 0.3%\n(q)Frederico Gil 41% 10.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%\nSergiy Stakhovsky 59% 18.4% 5.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%\nDaniel Gimeno-Traver 40% 7.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%\nSantiago Giraldo 60% 15.6% 6.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1%\n(8)Gael Monfils 100% 76.5% 51.3% 24.7% 7.7% 3.0% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(6)Fernando Verdasco 100% 71.3% 54.5% 31.0% 13.6% 5.2%\nTommy Robredo 73% 24.6% 15.1% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4%\nIvan Dodig 27% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%\nKevin Anderson 44% 16.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%\nFabio Fognini 56% 24.1% 6.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%\n(WC)Jean-Rene Lisnard 14% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%\n(11)Viktor Troicki 86% 55.6% 19.2% 6.5% 1.7% 0.4% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\nErnests Gulbis 67% 44.8% 22.0% 12.2% 5.0% 1.8%\n(14)Alexandr Dolgopolov 33% 16.9% 5.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%\nMilos Raonic 59% 24.4% 8.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%\nMichael Llodra 41% 13.9% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%\nJanko Tipsarevic 55% 13.5% 5.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%\nFeliciano Lopez 45% 10.7% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%\n(4)David Ferrer 100% 75.8% 50.7% 31.4% 14.3% 6.0% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(7)Jurgen Melzer 100% 54.7% 29.3% 9.3% 4.2% 1.3%\nNikolay Davydenko 72% 37.5% 20.3% 6.8% 3.2% 1.1%\nRobin Haase 28% 7.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%\n(q)Maximo Gonzalez 55% 12.3% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%\nVictor Hanescu 45% 8.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%\nMarcel Granollers 16% 8.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%\n(9)Nicolas Almagro 84% 70.5% 41.1% 15.2% 7.7% 2.8% \n\nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W\n(15)Marin Cilic 86% 68.2% 19.9% 10.4% 4.8% 1.5%\n(q)Filippo Volandri 14% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%\n(q)Pere Riba 43% 9.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%\nPotito Starace 57% 16.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%\nPhilipp Kohlschreiber 61% 11.6% 6.4% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3%\nAndrey Golubev 39% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%\n(2)Roger Federer 100% 83.2% 68.1% 52.6% 39.0% 22.1%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"