{"id":2599,"date":"2018-04-29T14:08:02","date_gmt":"2018-04-29T14:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=2599"},"modified":"2018-04-29T14:08:02","modified_gmt":"2018-04-29T14:08:02","slug":"the-most-aggressive-atp-returners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/04\/29\/the-most-aggressive-atp-returners\/","title":{"rendered":"The Most Aggressive ATP Returners"},"content":{"rendered":"

In yesterday’s post, I outlined a new method to measure return aggression.<\/a> Using Aggression Score<\/a> (AS) as a starting point, I made some adjustments in order to treat return winners (and induced forced errors) and return errors separately. The resulting metric–Return Aggression Score (RAS)–gives equal weight to return winners and return errors. A positive RAS represents an aggressive return game, while a negative number indicates a more conservative one. The most aggressive single-match performances were nearly four standard deviations above the mean, while player averages varied between about one standard deviation above and below the mean.<\/p>\n

We can now point the algorithm at the ATP, and calculate RAS for each player in the 1,500 or so 2010-present men’s matches logged by the Match Charting Project<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The difference between the frequency of return errors and return winners is even greater for men than it is for women. The WTA tour averages, as we saw yesterday, are 17.8% and 5.5%, respectively, and the men’s averages are 20.9% and 4.1%. Thus, treating the two categories separately is even more important when analyzing ATP matches.<\/p>\n

The overall range in single-match RAS figures is about the same as it is for women. The most aggressive one-match returners are nearly four standard deviations above the mean (a RAS mark near 4.0), while the lowest are almost two standard deviations below (RAS marks near -2.0). What differs between genders is that the most aggressive men’s single-match performances are not clustered around one player, as Serena Williams<\/a> dominates the women’s list. Of the top ten one-match men’s RAS marks, only one player appears twice, and that is partly an accident:<\/p>\n

Year  Event         Returner      Opponent   RAS  \n2015  Halle         Berdych       Karlovic  3.96  \n2014  Halle         D Brown       Nadal     3.72  \n2016  Stuttgart     Marchenko     Groth     3.49  \n2014  Aus Open      Dolgopolov    Berankis  2.99  \n2016  Dallas CH     Tiafoe        Groth     2.91  \n2014  Bogota        J Wang        Karlovic  2.79  \n2015  Fairfield CH  Tiafoe        D Brown   2.72  \n2017  Montpellier   De Schepper   M Zverev  2.64  \n2015  Madrid        Isner         Kyrgios   2.60  \n2014  Halle         An Kuznetsov  D Brown   2.58<\/pre>\n
Two factors make it more likely a returner appears on this list: His opponent, and the surface. Facing a serve-and-volleyer means adopting a higher-risk return strategy, and playing on a faster surface has a similar effect. Four of the top ten matches here were played on grass, and seven of the ten returners faced opponents who often come in behind their serves. Frances Tiafoe<\/a> is partly responsible for his double-appearance here, but I suspect it has more to do with his opponents.<\/p>\n
Grass is, by far, the most extreme surface in its effect on return tactics. Here are the numbers for each court type, along with the RAS of the average match on that surface:<\/p>\n
Surface  RetE%  RetW%    RAS  \nHard     21.4%   4.1%   0.04  \nGrass    25.3%   5.6%   0.54  \nClay     18.5%   3.5%  -0.24  \nAverage  20.9%   4.1%   0.00<\/pre>\n
Even though the average clay court match isn’t as extreme as a grass court match in this regard, the ten\u00a0least<\/em> aggressive single-match return performances all took place on clay, five of them recorded by Rafael Nadal<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Player averages<\/strong><\/p>\n
The Match Charting Project has at least 10 matches (2010-present) for about 75 players. Here is the top quintile, the 15 most aggressive players of that group:<\/p>\n
Player                 Matches  RetPts   RAS  \nDustin Brown                11     676  1.90  \nIvo Karlovic                16    1116  0.85  \nJohn Isner                  30    2202  0.77  \nAlexandr Dolgopolov         20    1417  0.76  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber       18    1334  0.69  \nLukas Rosol                 11     841  0.67  \nVasek Pospisil              14     812  0.62  \nAndrey Kuznetsov            11     585  0.54  \nBenoit Paire                17    1198  0.54  \nJeremy Chardy               14     923  0.39  \nKevin Anderson              23    1681  0.39  \nKei Nishikori               47    3128  0.38  \nMilos Raonic                42    3211  0.34  \nSam Querrey                 17    1219  0.31  \nFernando Verdasco           17    1109  0.30<\/pre>\n
There’s aggression, and then there’s Dustin Brown<\/a>. No other player is one full standard deviation above average, and he is nearly\u00a0two<\/em>, more than twice as aggressive as the next-most tactically extreme ATPer.<\/p>\n
We don’t see quite the same extremes in the other direction, just a bunch of clay-courters:<\/p>\n
Player                  Matches  RetPts    RAS  \nJiri Vesely                  11     716  -0.76  \nMarcel Granollers            12     746  -0.64  \nPaolo Lorenzi                13     912  -0.58  \nInigo Cervantes Huegun       10     705  -0.58  \nTommy Robredo                10     622  -0.57  \nDamir Dzumhur                11     688  -0.56  \nGuido Pella                  11     749  -0.51  \nGuillermo Garcia Lopez       10     734  -0.49  \nCasper Ruud                  16    1000  -0.48  \nHyeon Chung                  10     621  -0.48  \nRafael Nadal                157   11773  -0.42  \nRichard Gasquet              36    2180  -0.42  \nRoberto Bautista Agut        25    1633  -0.42  \nDiego Schwartzman            44    3289  -0.42  \nJuan Martin Del Potro        42    2900  -0.40<\/pre>\n
These least-aggressive numbers are partly a reflection of playing styles, and partly the surface, as we’ve already seen.<\/p>\n
Next, let’s look at how much players alter their style to the circumstances. Here are 16 players–top guys along with some others I found interesting–along with their average RAS numbers on the three major surfaces:<\/p>\n
Player                   RAS   Hard   Clay  Grass  \nJohn Isner              0.77   0.71   1.03   0.72  \nMarin Cilic             0.28   0.09   0.02   1.38  \nJo Wilfried Tsonga      0.24   0.31  -0.22   0.38  \nGilles Muller           0.10   0.07  -0.74   1.13  \nRoger Federer           0.08   0.04  -0.07   0.40  \nGrigor Dimitrov         0.07   0.12  -0.30   0.28  \nNovak Djokovic          0.02   0.03  -0.12   0.25  \nNick Kyrgios            0.02  -0.06   0.07   1.20  \nJack Sock              -0.08  -0.09   0.08         \nStanislas Wawrinka     -0.09  -0.11  -0.23   0.95  \nAlexander Zverev       -0.13  -0.06  -0.33   0.18  \nAndy Murray            -0.20  -0.25  -0.32   0.15  \nDominic Thiem          -0.24  -0.13  -0.40   0.25  \nJuan Martin Del Potro  -0.40  -0.43  -0.58  -0.07  \nDiego Schwartzman      -0.42  -0.34  -0.45         \nRafael Nadal           -0.42  -0.25  -0.76   0.57<\/pre>\n
The big servers have some surprises in store: John Isner<\/a> is\u00a0more<\/em> aggressive on the return on clay than on other surfaces, and Jack Sock<\/a> and Nick Kyrgios<\/a> show the same, at least compared to hard courts. Marin Cilic<\/a> is extremely aggressive on the grass court return, but his clay court tactics are similar to those on hard courts. In stark contrast is Gilles Muller<\/a>, second only to Nadal as a conservative returner on clay, but quite aggressive on other surfaces.<\/p>\n
One of the many underexplored topics in tennis analytics is the different ways players change\u00a0 (or choose not to change) their tactics on different surfaces. While comparing Return Aggression Score by surface is a tiny step in that direction, it does suggest just how much those strategies vary.<\/p>\n
As always, a reminder that analyses like these are only possible with the volunteer-generated shot-by-shot logs of the Match Charting Project<\/a>. I hope you’ll contribute<\/a>.<\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In yesterday’s post, I outlined a new method to measure return aggression. Using Aggression Score (AS) as a starting point, I made some adjustments in order to treat return winners (and induced forced errors) and return errors separately. The resulting metric–Return Aggression Score (RAS)–gives equal weight to return winners and return errors. A positive RAS … Continue reading The Most Aggressive ATP Returners<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,97],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-match-charting","category-return-stats"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2599\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}