{"id":2644,"date":"2018-05-21T17:05:01","date_gmt":"2018-05-21T17:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=2644"},"modified":"2018-05-21T17:05:01","modified_gmt":"2018-05-21T17:05:01","slug":"podcast-episode-26-reasons-for-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/21\/podcast-episode-26-reasons-for-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Podcast Episode 26: Reasons for Optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Episode 26 of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/06\/the-tennis-abstract-podcast\/\">Tennis Abstract Podcast<\/a>, with\u00a0Carl Bialik of the <a href=\"https:\/\/thirtylove.libsyn.com\/\">Thirty Love podcast<\/a>, starts with the superlative performances of Elina Svitolina, Maria Sharapova, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic in Rome, and considers how they cause us to revise our estimates of those players. For Djokovic, Sharapova, and Serena Williams, we compare their current Elo ratings&#8211;including penalties for time off&#8211;to our perceptions of their current levels.<\/p>\n<p>We also talk about the pros and cons of transitioning to a &#8220;weak era,&#8221; as well as the potential role of fatigue when tomorrow&#8217;s opponents don&#8217;t get the same amount of rest today. Thanks for listening!<\/p>\n<audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-2644-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/mpeg\" src=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode026.mp3?_=1\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode026.mp3\">http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode026.mp3<\/a><\/audio>\n<p><em>(Note: this week&#8217;s episode is about 62 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode026.mp3\">Click to listen<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-tennis-abstract-podcast\/id1223937610\">subscribe on iTunes<\/a>, or use <a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/feed.xml\">our feed<\/a> to get updates on your favorite podcast software.<\/p>\n<p>A few things we talked about:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/for-years-the-road-to-grand-slam-greatness-ran-through-mario-ancic\/\">Carl&#8217;s feature on Mario Ancic<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/15\/handling-injuries-and-absences-with-tennis-elo\/\">My post about the time-off Elo penalty<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Update:\u00a0<\/strong>Episode index with links, thanks to <a href=\"http:\/\/fbitennis.tumblr.com\/\">FBITennis<\/a>:<\/p>\n<table width=\"477\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\">Zverev v Nadal (Rome Final)<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0:58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Is Nadal declining?<\/td>\n<td>4:37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev&amp;f=Q0\">Zverev&#8217;s narrow margins (tiebreak success)<\/a><\/td>\n<td>7:15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/wplayer.cgi?p=DavidFerrer&amp;f=A2013qq,2012qq,2011qq,2010qq,2009qq,2008qqB1E0\">Nostalgia sidebar:\u00a0 Honoring Ferrer&#8217;s clay prowess<\/a><\/td>\n<td>10:40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/wplayer.cgi?p=ElinaSvitolina&amp;f=A2018qq,2017qq,2016qqE0\">Svitolina&#8217;s tremendous success in finals<\/a><\/td>\n<td>11:47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/charting\/20180520-W-Rome-F-Simona_Halep-Elina_Svitolina.html\">WTA Rome final takeaways, if any<\/a><\/td>\n<td>15:11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/wplayer.cgi?p=SimonaHalep&amp;f=A2018qq,2017qqE0\">Halep&#8217;s not-tremendous (recent) results in finals&#8230;and Wozniacki too<\/a><\/td>\n<td>17:15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/reports\/atp_elo_ratings.html\">Is Novak back? ELO says he only sorta left.<\/a><\/td>\n<td>22:34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic&amp;f=A2018qq,2017qq,2016qqF1\">Djokovic&#8217;s &#8220;good&#8221; losses<\/a><\/td>\n<td>28:30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\">Roland Garros favorites; comparing conventional wisdom and analytics<\/td>\n<td>30:04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"http:\/\/fbitennis.tumblr.com\/post\/174123969229\/its-tough-for-me-to-sit-back-and-watch-a-match\">A &#8220;weak era&#8221; is a good thing!\u00a0 Maybe.<\/a><\/td>\n<td>35:13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\"><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/reports\/wta_elo_ratings.html\">Serena a true #11 on clay; Sharapova a true #9 on clay (ELO, adjusted)<\/a><\/td>\n<td>44:02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"397\"><a href=\"https:\/\/encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com\/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTGOwoK7Ied5kQhUOvoMh7SVggKw23SKL4jbGidm9kJxt5qkIYAJw\">Will Ostapenko defend her French Open title? &#8220;Shock heuristic&#8221; says no.<\/a><\/td>\n<td>53:03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>The effect of fatigue between matches<\/td>\n<td>55:22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Episode 26 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast, with\u00a0Carl Bialik of the Thirty Love podcast, starts with the superlative performances of Elina Svitolina, Maria Sharapova, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic in Rome, and considers how they cause us to revise our estimates of those players. For Djokovic, Sharapova, and Serena Williams, we compare their current Elo &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/21\/podcast-episode-26-reasons-for-optimism\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Podcast Episode 26: Reasons for Optimism<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2644\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}