It’s not quite Monte Carlo, but it may be the strongest field of any ATP 500 this year. Below find the full draw, along with each player’s chances of reaching each round.<\/p>\n
One thing you may notice is the relatively low chance of Nadal winning the tournament. Intuitively, it’s tough to imagine him losing. For this sort of projection, 39% is actually fairly high for any one player, but Nadal on clay, of course, is in a class by himself. If the sportsbooks odds last week are anything to go by, my system just isn’t built to handle such extreme players.<\/p>\n
With all that said, there are definitely some interesting matchups in the early rounds, and some tight matches in the first round that might not otherwise make the headlines. My system stubbornly loves Davydenko, to the extent of making him the favorite over Dolgopolov tomorrow, something that very few humans outside the Davydenko family would agree with.<\/p>\n
Enjoy!<\/p>\n
Player R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(1)Rafael Nadal 100% 94.2% 85.2% 71.5% 52.1% 39.0% \nD Gimeno Traver 50% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% \nPotito Starace 50% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% \nR Ramirez Hidalgo 40% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% \n(WC)Albert Ramos 60% 17.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% \nSantiago Giraldo 37% 25.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% \n(13)Thomaz Bellucci 63% 49.4% 8.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(9)Richard Gasquet 70% 56.4% 29.0% 7.0% 2.7% 1.1% \nJuan Ignacio Chela 30% 18.2% 5.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% \nTobias Kamke 50% 12.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% \nBlaz Kavcic 50% 12.9% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% \n(q)Flavio Cipolla 29% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% \nRobin Haase 71% 18.6% 7.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% \n(7)Gael Monfils 100% 77.6% 50.9% 13.6% 5.6% 2.5% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(3)Robin Soderling 100% 91.5% 75.6% 55.9% 25.8% 16.2% \n(q)Vincent Millot 42% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% \nIvan Dodig 58% 5.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% \nRobert Kendrick 45% 9.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% \n(q)Simon Greul 55% 12.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% \nRadek Stepanek 38% 28.5% 5.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% \n(15)Milos Raonic 62% 49.4% 13.5% 6.3% 1.4% 0.5% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(12)G Garcia Lopez 60% 36.1% 12.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% \nDenis Istomin 40% 18.9% 5.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% \nFeliciano Lopez 63% 31.2% 9.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% \nMikhail Kukushkin 37% 13.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% \nKei Nishikori 71% 22.7% 13.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% \nPere Riba 29% 4.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% \n(5)Tomas Berdych 100% 73.0% 54.8% 23.6% 7.8% 3.7% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(6)Jurgen Melzer 100% 78.5% 54.7% 26.7% 11.0% 3.1% \nMarcel Granollers 53% 12.0% 5.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% \nDaniel Brands 47% 9.5% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% \n(q)Benoit Paire 74% 27.9% 7.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% \n(WC)P Carreno Busta 26% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% \nTeymuraz Gabashvili 28% 14.4% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% \n(11)Albert Montanes 72% 52.8% 24.3% 8.8% 2.9% 0.5% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(14)Kevin Anderson 45% 18.1% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% \nPablo Cuevas 55% 26.1% 5.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% \nAndrey Golubev 69% 42.9% 13.0% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% \nVictor Hanescu 31% 12.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% \n(q)Jarkko Nieminen 55% 8.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% \nCarlos Berlocq 45% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% \n(4)David Ferrer 100% 86.2% 69.8% 48.7% 26.9% 10.6% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(8)Nicolas Almagro 100% 86.4% 56.5% 27.4% 14.6% 4.8% \n(WC)G Granollers Pujol 21% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% \nPablo Andujar 79% 12.6% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% \n(WC)Andrey Kuznetsov 51% 9.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% \n(q)E Roger-Vasselin 49% 10.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% \nNikolay Davydenko 60% 50.1% 24.8% 10.7% 5.4% 1.7% \n(10)Alexandr Dolgopolov 40% 29.8% 11.2% 3.9% 1.5% 0.3% \n \nPlayer R32 R16 QF SF F W \n(16)(WC)Juan Monaco 67% 45.3% 13.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.4% \nGrigor Dimitrov 33% 16.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% \nFabio Fognini 67% 29.1% 5.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% \n(q)Simone Vagnozzi 33% 8.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% \nXavier Malisse 40% 5.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% \nJuan Carlos Ferrero 60% 10.7% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% \n(2)Andy Murray 100% 84.2% 69.0% 46.7% 30.7% 13.6%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It’s not quite Monte Carlo, but it may be the strongest field of any ATP 500 this year. Below find the full draw, along with each player’s chances of reaching each round. One thing you may notice is the relatively low chance of Nadal winning the tournament. Intuitively, it’s tough to imagine him losing. For … Continue reading Barcelona Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-barcelona","category-forecasting"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}