{"id":3002,"date":"2018-09-11T14:22:08","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T14:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=3002"},"modified":"2018-09-11T14:22:08","modified_gmt":"2018-09-11T14:22:08","slug":"eight-slams-eight-womens-champions-how-about-nine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/11\/eight-slams-eight-womens-champions-how-about-nine\/","title":{"rendered":"Eight Slams, Eight Women&#8217;s Champions. How About Nine?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"HM6PeX89T_xeFM0Cmq5UOA\" class=\"gie-single\" style=\"color: #a7a7a7; text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal !important; border: none; display: inline-block;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.gettyimages.no\/detail\/1029486444\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Embed from Getty Images<\/a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'HM6PeX89T_xeFM0Cmq5UOA',sig:'Ga4G23QHLp9bF6gvflpiv1Oztvt38YAt256jtAUf-ig=',w:'594px',h:'410px',items:'1029486444',caption: true ,tld:'no',is360: false })});<\/script><script src='\/\/embed-cdn.gettyimages.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/settesei\/2018\/09\/15\/otto-diverse-campionesse-slam-se-facessimo-nove\/\"><em>Italian translation at settesei.it<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Buried under the din of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/game-theory\/2018\/09\/09\/an-overzealous-chair-umpire-overshadows-naomi-osakas-impressive-victory\">the Serena-Ramos story<\/a> is a remarkable fact about parity in women&#8217;s tennis right now. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NaomiOsaka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Naomi Osaka<\/a> was the eighth different grand slam champion in eight events, a streak dating back to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SerenaWilliams\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Serena Williams<\/a>\u2019s victory at last year&#8217;s Australian Open. Since then, it&#8217;s been a different face with every trophy: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JelenaOstapenko\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jelena Ostapenko<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=GarbineMuguruza\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Garbine Muguruza<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SloaneStephens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sloane Stephens<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CarolineWozniacki\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caroline Wozniacki<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SimonaHalep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simona Halep<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a>, and Osaka. In the same time span, only three different men have won majors.<\/p>\n<p>The women&#8217;s field is so deep that the streak could easily keep going. I built a possible Australian Open draw using the current top 128 players in the WTA rankings, then ran a forecast of the tournament based on each player&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/reports\/wta_elo_ratings.html\">current Elo rating<\/a>. Here are the title chances for each of the last eight slam winners:<\/p>\n<pre>Player              Seed  Title Odds  \nSimona Halep           1       16.7%  \nCaroline Wozniacki     2        7.1%  \nAngelique Kerber       3        5.7%  \nSerena Williams       16        5.5%  \nNaomi Osaka            7        4.9%  \nSloane Stephens        9        2.6%  \nGarbine Muguruza      14        1.8%  \nJelena Ostapenko      10        0.5%  \nTOTAL                          44.9%<\/pre>\n<p>Altogether, they add up to less than 50%! Put another way, there are better than even odds that we get a ninth different woman giving a victory speech in Melbourne. Here are the players with the best chances:<\/p>\n<pre>Player              Seed  Title Odds  \nElina Svitolina        6        8.8%  \nAryna Sabalenka       20        6.6%  \nPetra Kvitova          5        5.9%  \nKarolina Pliskova      8        3.7%  \nAshleigh Barty        17        3.5%  \nCaroline Garcia        4        3.3%  \nMadison Keys          18        2.6%  \nVenus Williams        21        2.6%  \nMihaela Buzarnescu    23        2.3%  \nJulia Goerges         11        2.2%<\/pre>\n<p>Ok, yes, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MihaelaBuzarnescu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mihaela Buzarnescu<\/a> seems a little out of place here. But of the other nine players, would any of them represent more of a surprise than Ostapenko, Stephens, or Osaka? By the numbers, three of the top five favorites for the Australian Open\u00a0<em>haven&#8217;t<\/em> won a major in the last two years.<\/p>\n<p>Given the sheer number of plausible contenders, it&#8217;s easy to imagine not just nine different slam winners in a row, but twelve, extending through the entire 2019 season. Consider the possibilities:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Australia: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarolinaPliskova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karolina Pliskova<\/a> (or former champion <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VictoriaAzarenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Victoria Azarenka<\/a>, or maybe 2018 semi-finalist <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EliseMertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elise Mertens<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Roland Garros: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ElinaSvitolina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elina Svitolina<\/a> (or home favorite <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CarolineGarcia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caroline Garcia<\/a>, or a breakthrough from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaryaKasatkina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daria Kasatkina<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>Wimbledon: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a> (or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>, or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JuliaGoerges\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Julia Goerges<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li>US Open: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a> (or <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MadisonKeys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Madison Keys<\/a>, or former champion <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSharapova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sharapova<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is all rather fanciful, I know. But it&#8217;s barely even accurate to say there is a &#8220;favorite&#8221; when only one woman has a double-digit chance of winning the next major, and her odds are a mere one in six. No single player is\u00a0<em>likely<\/em> to win any given grand slam, and only Halep has better than a fifty-fifty shot at winning one over the course of the year.<\/p>\n<p>The chances that the streak extends to twelve are small, but not as low as, say, Osaka&#8217;s probability of winning the US Open before the tournament began. We&#8217;ve seen that the odds of a ninth different winner triumphing in Australia are about 55%. If that person wins, she&#8217;ll probably have earned a rosy forecast for Paris, so the probability of a new winner at the French is lower. And so on, after a tenth or eleventh different champion. If we lower the &#8220;new-winner&#8221; odds by seven percentage points for each slam, the chances of twelve-slam streak are 3.7%, the same as Pliskova&#8217;s probability of becoming number nine. Stranger things have happened. In women&#8217;s tennis, the unpredictable has become the norm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Embed from Getty Images Italian translation at settesei.it Buried under the din of the Serena-Ramos story is a remarkable fact about parity in women&#8217;s tennis right now. Naomi Osaka was the eighth different grand slam champion in eight events, a streak dating back to Serena Williams\u2019s victory at last year&#8217;s Australian Open. Since then, it&#8217;s &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2018\/09\/11\/eight-slams-eight-womens-champions-how-about-nine\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Eight Slams, Eight Women&#8217;s Champions. How About Nine?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-grand-slams"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3002\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}