{"id":311,"date":"2011-05-05T13:08:57","date_gmt":"2011-05-05T13:08:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=311"},"modified":"2011-05-05T13:08:57","modified_gmt":"2011-05-05T13:08:57","slug":"thursday-topspin-tiebreak-madness-redux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/05\/thursday-topspin-tiebreak-madness-redux\/","title":{"rendered":"Thursday Topspin: Tiebreak Madness Redux"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lopez threatens: <\/em>In one of the best matches of the season so far, Roger Federer<\/strong> snuck past Feliciano Lopez<\/strong> 7-6(13), 6-7(1), 7-6(7). \u00a0It’s a shame there had to be a loser: given Lopez’s form right now, he’s no doubt better than many of the 16 players who remain in the draw.<\/p>\n

The last time Federer played a three-tiebreak match was in November against Gael Monfils<\/strong>; he lost that one. \u00a0To find the last such match he won, we have to go back to Halle in 2006, when he beat Olivier Rochus<\/strong> after dropping a first-set breaker. \u00a0Whatever the weaknesses in Roger’s game, it’s tough to bet against him in a tiebreak, especially against another player with a serve-focused game. \u00a0He’s now 8-2 in tiebreaks this year, a percentage second only to Stanislas Wawrinka<\/strong>\u00a0(really!) among guys who have played that many breakers.<\/p>\n

Ending the madness: <\/em>The Federer-Lopez was unusual yesterday; there were only two tiebreaks in all the other men’s singles matches combined. \u00a0With the exception of Jurgen Melzer<\/strong>, the other seeds coasted through, with both Tomas Berdych<\/strong> and Juan Martin del Potro<\/strong> (a seed in all but name and favorable draw) dropping a bagel on their opponent.<\/p>\n

Melzer wasn’t so lucky, losing in straight sets to Daniel Gimeno-Traver<\/strong>. \u00a0DGT has been the surprise of the event, coming in with a 2-12 record this year in ATP main draw matches. \u00a0He qualified by beating a credible opponent in Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo<\/strong>, then bumped Richard Gasquet<\/strong> in the first round. \u00a0He needed only two sets to beat Melzer, returning so well that the Austrian failed to win even half of his service points.<\/p>\n

On the basis of his showing this week, Gimeno-Traver should rise to a new career high of at least #52, and he might not be done yet. \u00a0Later today, he faces Michael Llodra<\/strong> for a spot in the quarterfinals and a probable match against Rafael Nadal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Today: <\/em>On the Madrid schedule, we have the entire round of 16. \u00a0For the first time in the clay season, Nadal is not the most heavily favored player–the oddsmakers give him “only” an 85% chance of defeating del Potro. \u00a0If the betting odds are to be believed, Federer, Novak Djokovic<\/strong>, and David Ferrer<\/strong> are have a 90% chance or better of reaching the quarterfinals.<\/p>\n

In fact, only two of the eight matches qualify for potential blockbuster status. \u00a0The first, of course, is Nadal-Delpo; the other is Robin Soderling<\/strong> vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga<\/strong>. \u00a0It’s odd to see Tsonga without a seed next to his name; in the draw, he’s taken the place of Nicholas Almagro<\/strong>, the man he beat in the first round. \u00a0He’s healthy, and while he’s appeared rusty the last couple of times I’ve seen him, the 6-1, 6-3 defeat of Almagro suggests the rust is coming off. \u00a0Soderling has been far from unbeatable lately as well, so this one could go either way.<\/p>\n

A few challenger notes: <\/em>In Prague, Fernando Gonzalez<\/strong> has won the first set over Jeremy Chardy<\/strong>, a step toward what would be a solid win for the Chilean’s comeback. \u00a0Also, Alex Bogomolov<\/strong>, the only American in the tournament, has reached the quarters after wins against Adam Kellner<\/strong> (last week’s finalist in Ostrava) and Jesse Huta Galung<\/strong>. \u00a0That should give Bogie another career-high ranking of at least #89.<\/p>\n

The rest of the Americans are in Savannah, where both Wayne Odesnik<\/strong> and Denis Kudla<\/strong> have scored first-round upsets this week. \u00a0Odesnik, who qualified, knocked out sixth-seed Marinko Matosevic<\/strong>, while Kudla beat fifth-seed Izak van der Merwe<\/strong>. \u00a0This swing of U.S. challengers makes a good opportunity for Odesnik to rocket in the rankings, as these events are played on clay. \u00a0He might be the only man in the draw who prefers it that way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lopez threatens: In one of the best matches of the season so far, Roger Federer snuck past Feliciano Lopez 7-6(13), 6-7(1), 7-6(7). \u00a0It’s a shame there had to be a loser: given Lopez’s form right now, he’s no doubt better than many of the 16 players who remain in the draw. The last time Federer … Continue reading Thursday Topspin: Tiebreak Madness Redux<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,24,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challengers","category-daily-recaps","category-madrid"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=311"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/311\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}