{"id":337,"date":"2011-05-20T17:13:52","date_gmt":"2011-05-20T17:13:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=337"},"modified":"2011-05-20T17:13:52","modified_gmt":"2011-05-20T17:13:52","slug":"french-open-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/20\/french-open-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"French Open Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set. \u00a0I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below.<\/p>\n<p>A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>All of the top three players have challenging draws. \u00a0Nadal faces Isner in the first, then possibly Davydenko in the third, Verdasco in the 4th, and Soderling in the quarters. \u00a0Federer drew Feliciano Lopez in the first. \u00a0And Djokovic got the worst possible outcome: Del Potro in the third. \u00a0There probably isn&#8217;t an upset there, but if anybody&#8217;s going to take Novak out before the final, Delpo&#8217;s my bet.<\/li>\n<li>There are eight Americans in the draw. \u00a0The odds that a US player&#8211;any US player&#8211;wins the tourney is 0.83%. \u00a0The odds that all eight are knocked out in the first round? \u00a00.85%. \u00a0Only Fish and Sweeting are favorites in their opening matches.<\/li>\n<li>On the country-by-country theme, France has 20 men in the main draw, with a likelihood of just under 4% that a Frenchmen will win the title. \u00a0Spain has 14, for a total title shot of 26.4% &#8212; just below Djokovic&#8217;s chances by himself.<\/li>\n<li>Some tight matchups in the first round: Fognini\/Istomin, Hewitt\/Montanes, Brands\/Kukushkin, Paire\/Hanescu (home court advantage flips that in Paire&#8217;s favor), Teixeira\/Millot (two wild cards), Tomic\/Berlocq, Gimeno-Traver\/Haase, and Tursunov\/Malisse.<\/li>\n<li>The most lopsided first-rounder&#8211;according to the numbers&#8211;is Djokovic vs. de Bakker, followed by Andy Murray vs. Eric Prodon, the only two where my system gives the favorite a 90% chance of advancing. \u00a0There are plenty in the high 80&#8217;s, as well.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here are the full simulation results:<\/p>\n<p><pre>Player                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(1)Rafael Nadal             87.5%  81.4%  67.3%  \u2026  21.30%  \nJohn Isner                  12.5%   8.3%   4.2%  \u2026   0.05%  \nSantiago Giraldo            60.4%   6.9%   2.6%  \u2026   0.01%  \nPablo Andujar               39.6%   3.5%   1.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nPablo Cuevas                67.0%  25.0%   4.0%  \u2026   0.02%  \n(q)Antonio Veic             33.0%   7.8%   0.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Denis Gremelmayr         14.6%   4.8%   0.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(28)Nikolay Davydenko       85.4%  62.3%  19.8%  \u2026   0.72%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(24)Sam Querrey             42.6%  20.5%   9.1%  \u2026   0.04%  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber       57.4%  31.2%  15.7%  \u2026   0.13%  \nIvan Ljubicic               72.0%  39.5%  20.6%  \u2026   0.20%  \nSomdev Devvarman            28.0%   8.8%   2.8%  \u2026   0.00%  \nDmitry Tursunov             44.9%  12.1%   4.1%  \u2026   0.00%  \nXavier Malisse              55.1%  16.4%   5.9%  \u2026   0.01%  \nJuan Monaco                 34.7%  21.0%   9.7%  \u2026   0.04%  \n(16)Fernando Verdasco       65.3%  50.4%  32.1%  \u2026   0.77%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(10)Mardy Fish              82.3%  59.3%  36.6%  \u2026   0.70%  \nRicardo Mello               17.7%   6.5%   1.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \nDaniel Gimeno-Traver        47.9%  16.1%   6.2%  \u2026   0.01%  \nRobin Haase                 52.1%  18.1%   7.2%  \u2026   0.02%  \nJeremy Chardy               52.5%  21.7%   9.1%  \u2026   0.03%  \nGrigor Dimitrov             47.5%  17.9%   7.2%  \u2026   0.02%  \nMichael Russell             16.0%   4.5%   1.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(18)Gilles Simon            84.0%  55.9%  31.0%  \u2026   0.41%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(27)Marcos Baghdatis        71.6%  51.3%  20.0%  \u2026   0.36%  \nFrederico Gil               28.4%  14.1%   3.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Leonardo Mayer           58.4%  22.3%   5.0%  \u2026   0.01%  \nDustin Brown                41.6%  12.3%   2.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Albert Ramos             77.0%  10.8%   3.5%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Javier Marti             23.0%   1.2%   0.1%  \u2026   0.00%  \nBenjamin Becker             10.4%   6.1%   2.1%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(5)Robin Soderling          89.6%  81.9%  64.0%  \u2026   5.86%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(4)Andy Murray              91.0%  82.1%  60.3%  \u2026   7.11%  \n(q)Eric Prodon               9.0%   4.3%   1.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(LL)Simon Bolelli           58.1%   8.6%   2.6%  \u2026   0.01%  \n(q)Frank Dancevic           41.9%   5.0%   1.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Arnaud Clement          46.8%   9.2%   1.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \nFilippo Volandri            53.2%  12.0%   2.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nMichael Berrer              19.2%  10.6%   2.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(26)Milos Raonic            80.8%  68.2%  29.4%  \u2026   1.17%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(21)Alexandr Dolgopolov     80.2%  48.8%  26.6%  \u2026   0.14%  \nRainer Schuettler           19.8%   5.6%   1.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \nAndreas Haider-Maurer       41.1%  16.6%   6.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \nRyan Sweeting               58.9%  29.0%  13.7%  \u2026   0.03%  \nTobias Kamke                39.2%  12.9%   4.8%  \u2026   0.00%  \nOlivier Rochus              60.8%  24.4%  11.5%  \u2026   0.02%  \nJulian Reister              27.6%  12.5%   4.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(15)Viktor Troicki          72.4%  50.1%  30.7%  \u2026   0.22%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(11)Nicolas Almagro         82.4%  66.6%  46.5%  \u2026   1.30%  \n(q)Lukasz Kubot             17.6%   8.5%   3.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nCarlos Berlocq              48.2%  11.6%   4.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Bernard Tomic           51.8%  13.3%   5.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nPotito Starace              55.8%  19.8%   6.4%  \u2026   0.01%  \n(q)Alejandro Falla          44.2%  13.4%   3.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \nIgor Kunitsyn               20.4%   8.3%   2.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(20)Florian Mayer           79.6%  58.5%  29.4%  \u2026   0.36%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(32)Kevin Anderson          61.3%  34.3%  11.4%  \u2026   0.02%  \nNicolas Mahut               38.7%  16.5%   4.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nJuan Ignacio Chela          62.6%  33.8%  11.5%  \u2026   0.02%  \n(WC)Tim Smyczek             37.4%  15.3%   3.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Edouard Roger-Vasselin  54.4%  12.8%   6.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Lukas Rosol              45.6%   9.4%   4.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(LL)Andreas Beck            15.2%   7.6%   3.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(8)Jurgen Melzer            84.8%  70.2%  56.0%  \u2026   2.09%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(7)David Ferrer             81.2%  65.7%  47.5%  \u2026   2.54%  \nJarkko Nieminen             18.8%   9.9%   3.8%  \u2026   0.00%  \nJulien Benneteau            64.9%  18.2%   8.1%  \u2026   0.03%  \nRui Machado                 35.1%   6.3%   1.8%  \u2026   0.00%  \nKei Nishikori               78.9%  57.6%  27.6%  \u2026   0.43%  \nYen-Hsun Lu                 21.1%   9.2%   1.9%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)David Guez               32.2%   7.6%   1.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(31)Sergiy Stakhovsky       67.8%  25.6%   7.9%  \u2026   0.01%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(22)Michael Llodra          73.5%  42.4%  17.7%  \u2026   0.09%  \n(q)Steve Darcis             26.5%   9.0%   2.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nPhilipp Petzschner          64.0%  34.4%  13.3%  \u2026   0.03%  \nMischa Zverev               36.0%  14.2%   4.1%  \u2026   0.01%  \nAdrian Mannarino            56.9%  15.3%   6.6%  \u2026   0.01%  \n(WC)Guillaume Rufin         43.1%   9.6%   3.5%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Bjorn Phau               12.1%   4.4%   1.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(9)Gael Monfils             87.9%  70.6%  51.6%  \u2026   1.45%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      85.8%  66.1%  40.1%  \u2026   0.83%  \n(q)Augustin Gensse          14.2%   5.2%   1.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(q)Thomas Schoorel          55.6%  17.0%   6.2%  \u2026   0.01%  \nMaximo Gonzalez             44.4%  11.7%   3.8%  \u2026   0.00%  \nFlorent Serra               37.4%   8.4%   2.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \nIgor Andreev                62.6%  19.4%   6.4%  \u2026   0.01%  \nJan Hajek                   18.2%   8.4%   2.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(17)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      81.8%  63.7%  37.8%  \u2026   0.78%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(29)Janko Tipsarevic        75.9%  46.3%  13.2%  \u2026   0.11%  \nBrian Dabul                 24.1%   8.1%   1.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nIvan Dodig                  61.9%  31.2%   7.7%  \u2026   0.06%  \nPere Riba                   38.1%  14.4%   2.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Vincent Millot          46.5%   4.6%   1.5%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Maxime Teixeira         53.5%   6.1%   2.2%  \u2026   0.00%  \nFeliciano Lopez             23.4%  18.6%  11.9%  \u2026   0.27%  \n(3)Roger Federer            76.6%  70.7%  60.2%  \u2026   9.85%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(6)Tomas Berdych            87.7%  68.0%  51.2%  \u2026   1.58%  \n(q)Stephane Robert          12.3%   3.9%   1.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \nFabio Fognini               50.9%  15.1%   7.1%  \u2026   0.01%  \nDenis Istomin               49.1%  13.1%   6.3%  \u2026   0.01%  \nTommy Haas                  26.8%   5.3%   0.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(LL)Marsel Ilhan            73.2%  28.1%   7.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \nRobert Kendrick             22.6%   9.9%   1.9%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(30)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  77.4%  56.7%  24.1%  \u2026   0.13%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(19)Marin Cilic             88.4%  61.4%  42.6%  \u2026   0.93%  \nRuben Ramirez Hidalgo       11.6%   2.7%   0.7%  \u2026   0.00%  \nLleyton Hewitt              45.7%  14.7%   7.4%  \u2026   0.03%  \nAlbert Montanes             54.3%  21.1%  11.2%  \u2026   0.04%  \nDaniel Brands               47.0%  15.8%   4.1%  \u2026   0.00%  \nMikhail Kukushkin           53.0%  20.0%   5.7%  \u2026   0.01%  \nGo Soeda                    18.7%   6.8%   1.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(12)Mikhail Youzhny         81.3%  57.3%  26.9%  \u2026   0.19%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(13)Richard Gasquet         69.1%  56.4%  40.9%  \u2026   1.08%  \nRadek Stepanek              30.9%  20.3%  10.8%  \u2026   0.05%  \n(LL)Alex Bogomolov Jr.      42.8%   8.7%   3.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nMarcel Granollers           57.2%  14.6%   6.0%  \u2026   0.00%  \nTeymuraz Gabashvili         44.6%  12.8%   3.3%  \u2026   0.00%  \nAndreas Seppi               55.4%  20.6%   6.5%  \u2026   0.01%  \nAndrey Golubev              34.5%  20.1%   7.0%  \u2026   0.01%  \n(23)Thomaz Bellucci         65.5%  46.5%  22.5%  \u2026   0.17%  \n                                                            \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16          W  \n(25)Juan Martin Del Potro   89.0%  72.9%  30.1%  \u2026   8.40%  \nIvo Karlovic                11.0%   3.5%   0.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \nErnests Gulbis              80.2%  21.5%   4.5%  \u2026   0.20%  \nBlaz Kavcic                 19.8%   2.0%   0.1%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(WC)Benoit Paire            51.7%   3.7%   0.5%  \u2026   0.00%  \nVictor Hanescu              48.3%   3.2%   0.4%  \u2026   0.00%  \nThiemo De Bakker             6.3%   3.6%   0.6%  \u2026   0.00%  \n(2)Novak Djokovic           93.7%  89.5%  63.3%  \u2026  27.42%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The qualifying rounds are over, and the draw is set. \u00a0I plugged the full 128-man bracket into my simulator, combined it with my most recent clay-specific rankings, and the full results are below. A few quick hits on the draw and the simulation results: All of the top three players have challenging draws. \u00a0Nadal faces &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/20\/french-open-predictions\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">French Open Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-french-open"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}