{"id":3803,"date":"2019-12-10T09:36:08","date_gmt":"2019-12-10T09:36:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=3803"},"modified":"2019-12-10T09:36:08","modified_gmt":"2019-12-10T09:36:08","slug":"podcast-episode-80-martin-ingram-on-predicting-match-outcomes-bayesian-style","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/10\/podcast-episode-80-martin-ingram-on-predicting-match-outcomes-bayesian-style\/","title":{"rendered":"Podcast Episode 80: Martin Ingram on Predicting Match Outcomes, Bayesian Style"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Episode 80 of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/06\/the-tennis-abstract-podcast\/\">Tennis Abstract Podcast<\/a> features Martin Ingram (@xenophar), author of a recent academic paper, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.degruyter.com\/view\/j\/jqas.2019.15.issue-4\/jqas-2018-0008\/jqas-2018-0008.xml?format=INT\">A point-based Bayesian hierarchical model to predict the outcome of tennis matches<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you&#8217;re interested in learning more about what goes into a forecasting system, this one&#8217;s for you.  We start with a discussion of the advantages as well as the limitations of the common &#8220;iid&#8221; assumption, that points are <em>independent<\/em> and <em>identically distributed<\/em>. Martin&#8217;s model, which relies on the iid assumption, incorporates each player&#8217;s serve and return skill, in addition to surface preferences and tournament-specific characteristics. In our conversation, he explains how it works, and why this sort of model is able to provide reasonable forecasts even with limited data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s just the beginning. Martin suggests several possible additions to his model, and we close by considering the importance of domain knowledge in this sort of statistical work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks for listening!<\/p>\n\n\n<audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-3803-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/mpeg\" src=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode080.mp3?_=1\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode080.mp3\">http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode080.mp3<\/a><\/audio>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(Note: this week&#8217;s episode is about 65 minutes long; in some browsers the audio player may display a different length. Sorry about that!)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/TennisAbstractPodcast-episode080.mp3\">Click to listen<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-tennis-abstract-podcast\/id1223937610\">subscribe on iTunes<\/a>, or use <a href=\"http:\/\/tennisabstract.com\/podcast\/feed.xml\">our feed<\/a> to get updates on your favorite podcast software.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Episode 80 of the Tennis Abstract Podcast features Martin Ingram (@xenophar), author of a recent academic paper, A point-based Bayesian hierarchical model to predict the outcome of tennis matches. If you&#8217;re interested in learning more about what goes into a forecasting system, this one&#8217;s for you. We start with a discussion of the advantages as &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/10\/podcast-episode-80-martin-ingram-on-predicting-match-outcomes-bayesian-style\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Podcast Episode 80: Martin Ingram on Predicting Match Outcomes, Bayesian Style<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}