{"id":3839,"date":"2020-01-07T18:24:47","date_gmt":"2020-01-07T18:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=3839"},"modified":"2020-01-07T18:24:47","modified_gmt":"2020-01-07T18:24:47","slug":"are-american-players-screwed-once-you-drag-them-into-a-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/07\/are-american-players-screwed-once-you-drag-them-into-a-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Are American Players Screwed Once You Drag Them Into a Rally?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long after retiring from tennis, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MaratSafin\">Marat Safin<\/a> remains quotable. The Russian captain at the ATP Cup had this to say to his charge, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarenKhachanov\">Karen Khachanov<\/a>, during a match against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=TaylorHarryFritz\">Taylor Fritz<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<br>Safin to Khachanov on typical US player&#39;s approach to the game:<br><br>They employ shock-and-awe tactics and want to scare you with one-two shots. Once you drag them into the rally they are screwed.<\/p>&mdash; Oleg S. (@AnnaK_4ever) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AnnaK_4ever\/status\/1213772793386618880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 5, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn&#8217;t <em>exactly<\/em> testable. I don&#8217;t know you&#8217;d quantify &#8220;shock-and-awe,&#8221; or how to identify&#8211;let alone measure&#8211;attempts to scare one&#8217;s opponent. Or screwed-ness, for that matter. But if we take &#8220;screwed&#8221; to mean the same as &#8220;not very likely to win,&#8221; we&#8217;ve got something we can check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many fans would agree with the general claim that American men tend to have big serves, aggressive game styles, and not a whole lot of subtlety. Certainly <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JohnIsner\">John Isner<\/a> fits that mold, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SamQuerrey\">Sam Querrey<\/a> doesn&#8217;t deviate much from it. While Fritz is a big hitter who racks up his share of aces and second-shot putaways, his style isn&#8217;t so one-dimensional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Taylor Fritz: not screwed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using data from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/charting\/meta.html\">Match Charting Project<\/a>, I calculated some rally-length stats for the 70 men with at least 20 charted matches in the last decade. That includes five Americans (Fritz, Isner, Querrey, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SteveJohnson\">Steve Johnson<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JackSock\">Jack Sock<\/a>) and most of the other guys we think of as ATP tour regulars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Safin&#8217;s implied definition is that rallies of four shots or fewer are &#8220;shock-and-awe&#8221; territory, points that are won or lost within either player&#8217;s first two shots. Longer rallies are, supposedly, the points where the Americans lose the edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is certainly the case for Isner. He wins only 40% of points when the rally reaches a fifth shot, by far the worst of these tour regulars. Compared to Isner, even <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NickKyrgios\">Nick Kyrgios<\/a> (44%) and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IvoKarlovic\">Ivo Karlovic<\/a> (45%) look respectable. The range of winning percentages extends as high as 56%, the mark held by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NikolozBasilashvili\">Nikoloz Basilashvili<\/a>. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> is, unsurprisingly, right behind him in second place at 54%, a whisker ahead of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fritz, at 50.2%, ranks 28th out of 70, roughly equal to the likes of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=GaelMonfils\">Gael Monfils<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RobertoBautistaAgut\">Roberto Bautista Agut<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DominicThiem\">Dominic Thiem<\/a>. Best of all&#8211;if you&#8217;re a contrarian like me, anyway&#8211;is that Fritz is almost 20 places higher on the list than Khachanov, who wins 48.5% of points that last five shots or more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>More data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are 20 of the 70 players, including some from the top and bottom of the list, along with all the Americans and some other characters of interest. I&#8217;ve calculated each player&#8217;s percentage of points won for 1- or 2-shot rallies (serve and return winners), 3- or 4-shot rallies (serve- and return-plus-one points), and 5- or more-shot rallies. They are ranked by the 5- or more-shot column:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre>Rank  Player                 1-2 W%  3-4 W%  5+ W%  \n1     Nikoloz Basilashvili    43.7%   54.1%  55.8%  \n2     Rafael Nadal            52.7%   51.6%  54.3%  \n3     Novak Djokovic          51.8%   54.6%  54.0%  \n4     Kei Nishikori           45.5%   51.2%  53.9%  \n11    Roger Federer           52.9%   54.9%  52.1%  \n22    Philipp Kohlschreiber   50.1%   50.1%  50.7%  \n28    Taylor Fritz            51.1%   47.2%  50.2%  \n30    Jack Sock               49.0%   46.5%  50.2%  \n31    Alexander Zverev        52.8%   50.3%  50.0%  \n32    Juan Martin del Potro   53.8%   49.1%  50.0%  \n34    Andy Murray             54.3%   49.5%  49.4%  \n39    Daniil Medvedev         53.9%   50.4%  49.0%  \n43    Stefanos Tsitsipas      51.4%   50.5%  48.6%  \n44    Karen Khachanov         53.7%   48.1%  48.5%  \n48    Steve Johnson           49.2%   48.8%  48.3%  \n61    Sam Querrey             53.5%   48.0%  46.2%  \n62    Matteo Berrettini       53.6%   49.3%  46.1%  \n66    Ivo Karlovic            51.8%   43.9%  44.9%  \n68    Nick Kyrgios            54.6%   47.4%  44.2%  \n70    John Isner              52.3%   48.3%  40.2%<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fritz is one of the few players who win more than half of the shortest rallies <em>and<\/em> more than half of the longest ones. The first category can be the result of a strong serve, as is probably the case with Fritz, and is definitely the case with Isner. But you don&#8217;t have to have a big serve to win more than half of the 1- or 2-shot points. Nadal and Djokovic do well in that category (like they do in virtually all categories) in large part because they negate the advantage of their opponents&#8217; serves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shifting focus from the Americans for a moment, you might be surprised by the players with positive winning percentages in all three categories. Nadal, Djokovic, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\">Roger Federer<\/a> all make the cut, each with plenty of room to spare. The remaining two are the unexpected ones. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PhilippKohlschreiber\">Philipp Kohlschreiber<\/a> is just barely better than neutral in both classes of short points, and a bit better than that (50.7%) on long ones. And <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\">Alexander Zverev<\/a> qualifies by the skin of his teeth, winning very slightly more than half of his long rallies. (Yes, that 50.0% is rounded down, not up.) Match Charting Project data is far from complete, so it&#8217;s possible that with a different sample, one or both of the Germans would fall below the 50% mark, but the numbers for both are based on sizable datasets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back to Fritz, Isner, and company. Safin may be right that the Americans <em>want<\/em> to scare you with a couple of big shots. Isner has certainly intimidated his share of opponents with the serve alone. Yet Fritz, the player who prompted the comment, is more well-rounded than the Russian captain gave him credit for. Khachanov won the match on Sunday, and at least at this stage in their careers, the Russian is the better player. But not on longer rallies. Based on our broader look at the data, it&#8217;s Khachanov who should try to avoid getting dragged into long exchanges, not Fritz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long after retiring from tennis, Marat Safin remains quotable. The Russian captain at the ATP Cup had this to say to his charge, Karen Khachanov, during a match against Taylor Fritz: This isn&#8217;t exactly testable. I don&#8217;t know you&#8217;d quantify &#8220;shock-and-awe,&#8221; or how to identify&#8211;let alone measure&#8211;attempts to scare one&#8217;s opponent. Or screwed-ness, for that &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2020\/01\/07\/are-american-players-screwed-once-you-drag-them-into-a-rally\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Are American Players Screwed Once You Drag Them Into a Rally?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,90,105,110],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-american-tennis","category-atp-cup","category-rally-statistics","category-serve-statistics","category-tactics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3839\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}