{"id":387,"date":"2011-06-19T16:49:39","date_gmt":"2011-06-19T16:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/heavytopspin.com\/?p=387"},"modified":"2011-06-19T16:49:39","modified_gmt":"2011-06-19T16:49:39","slug":"wimbledon-mens-draw-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/06\/19\/wimbledon-mens-draw-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Wimbledon Men&#8217;s Draw Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After several days of delays in qualifying, the Wimbledon main draws are finally complete. \u00a0As expected, Novak Djokovic is the favorite, with a 21.6% chance of winning. \u00a0Federer is next, at 14.3%, and Nadal is close behind, at 13.6%. \u00a0It&#8217;s Rafa&#8217;s turn to line up against dark horse Juan Martin del Potro&#8211;they are positioned for a fourth-round clash.<\/p>\n<p>A few other notes about the draw:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It&#8217;s easy to imagine that all qualifiers are alike, but my system has no respect for Frenchman Kenny De Schepper. \u00a0He has less a 10% shot at beating Olivier Rochus.<\/li>\n<li>Speaking of qualifiers, Marinko Matosevic drew 25th-seed Juan Ignacio Chela, whose ranking is largely due to his strong performance (and weak draw) in Paris. \u00a0Chela is not much of a hard court threat, so while Matosevic is hardly a threat in his own right, the Aussie is favored.<\/li>\n<li>The Matosevic\/Chela matchup could also benefit an American. \u00a0Alex Bogomolov and Donald Young will play for a chance to face the winner of Matosevic\/Chela, giving either US player a good chance of reaching the third round. \u00a0After that it&#8217;s Tomas Berdych, and it&#8217;s probably over.<\/li>\n<li>Several qualifiers are favored to reach the second round, partly because of a few Q vs. Q (or Q vs. lucky loser) matchups. \u00a0One such qualifier is Lukasz Kubot, who I predict will beat wild card Arnaud Clement.<\/li>\n<li>Another one? \u00a0Ryan Harrison, in as a LL, faces Ivan Dodig. \u00a0Dodig has climbed the rankings this season, but my system puts him a tiny margin behind the American.<\/li>\n<li>Of the top four, Roger Federer has the easiest route to the semis. \u00a0It looks like David Nalbandian in the third, Almagro, Youhzny, or maybe Isner in the fourth, and Ferrer or Tsonga in the quarters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here is the full breakdown:<\/p>\n<p><pre>Player                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(1)Rafael Nadal             92.9%  84.1%  68.2%      13.60%  \nMichael Russell              7.1%   3.2%   0.9%       0.00%  \nPablo Andujar               27.8%   2.0%   0.4%       0.00%  \nRyan Sweeting               72.2%  10.7%   4.1%       0.02%  \nGilles Muller               74.2%  21.8%   3.6%       0.01%  \nTommy Haas                  25.8%   3.4%   0.2%       0.00%  \nFabio Fognini               27.5%  16.7%   3.1%       0.02%  \n(31)Milos Raonic            72.5%  58.0%  19.4%       0.65%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(24)Juan Martin Del Potro   90.4%  73.9%  57.8%       7.49%  \nFlavio Cipolla               9.6%   3.8%   1.2%       0.00%  \nOlivier Rochus              90.1%  21.9%  10.4%       0.05%  \nKenny De Schepper            9.9%   0.4%   0.0%       0.00%  \nFrederico Gil               42.4%  12.8%   2.4%       0.00%  \nDudi Sela                   57.6%  22.4%   5.2%       0.03%  \nEdouard Roger-Vasselin      23.7%  10.1%   2.1%       0.00%  \n(15)Gilles Simon            76.3%  54.8%  21.0%       0.52%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(10)Mardy Fish              71.4%  48.3%  33.1%       1.81%  \nMarcel Granollers           28.6%  13.0%   6.3%       0.03%  \nPhilipp Kohlschreiber       64.3%  28.3%  16.1%       0.27%  \nDenis Istomin               35.7%  10.3%   4.2%       0.01%  \nRobin Haase                 67.8%  21.3%   6.0%       0.01%  \nPere Riba                   32.2%   5.8%   0.9%       0.00%  \nRadek Stepanek              39.8%  27.0%  11.7%       0.10%  \n(21)Fernando Verdasco       60.2%  45.8%  21.7%       0.45%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(25)Juan Ignacio Chela      44.2%  15.9%   3.6%       0.00%  \nMarinko Matosevic           55.8%  24.6%   6.1%       0.00%  \nDonald Young                52.5%  31.6%  10.8%       0.02%  \nAlex Bogomolov Jr           47.5%  27.9%   8.4%       0.02%  \nRuben Bemelmans             34.4%   7.4%   3.2%       0.00%  \nJulien Benneteau            65.6%  21.2%  12.7%       0.06%  \nFilippo Volandri             6.3%   1.1%   0.2%       0.00%  \n(6)Tomas Berdych            93.7%  70.3%  55.0%       2.47%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(4)Andy Murray              87.9%  77.2%  57.4%       9.55%  \nDaniel Gimeno-Traver        12.1%   6.2%   2.0%       0.00%  \nTobias Kamke                47.4%   7.5%   2.2%       0.00%  \nBlaz Kavcic                 52.6%   9.0%   2.8%       0.01%  \nSergiy Stakhovsky           83.3%  26.2%   6.6%       0.04%  \nDaniel Cox                  16.7%   1.6%   0.1%       0.00%  \nIvan Ljubicic               39.3%  26.1%   9.4%       0.17%  \n(27)Marin Cilic             60.7%  46.0%  19.5%       1.02%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(17)Richard Gasquet         70.1%  54.5%  26.9%       0.66%  \nSantiago Giraldo            29.9%  17.9%   5.8%       0.01%  \nIgor Kunitsyn               47.3%  12.4%   3.0%       0.00%  \nIgor Sijsling               52.7%  15.2%   4.0%       0.00%  \nMartin Fischer              56.4%  10.6%   3.3%       0.00%  \nSimone Bolelli              43.6%   6.5%   1.6%       0.00%  \nPotito Starace              10.6%   4.8%   1.2%       0.00%  \n(14)Stanislas Wawrinka      89.4%  78.1%  54.2%       3.00%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(9)Gael Monfils             77.0%  61.6%  43.5%       2.31%  \nMatthias Bachinger          23.0%  12.1%   5.3%       0.02%  \nGrega Zemlja                42.6%  10.0%   3.7%       0.01%  \nLukas Lacko                 57.4%  16.3%   6.9%       0.02%  \nArnaud Clement              42.5%  12.3%   3.1%       0.00%  \nLukasz Kubot                57.5%  19.9%   6.1%       0.01%  \nIvo Karlovic                39.5%  24.6%  10.5%       0.06%  \n(23)Janko Tipsarevic        60.5%  43.2%  20.9%       0.28%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(30)Thomaz Bellucci         71.0%  34.8%  13.8%       0.10%  \nRainer Schuettler           29.0%   8.2%   1.9%       0.00%  \nFeliciano Lopez             63.3%  39.1%  16.3%       0.16%  \nMichael Berrer              36.7%  17.9%   5.9%       0.02%  \nJaroslav Pospisil           26.3%   2.6%   0.4%       0.00%  \nVictor Hanescu              73.7%  16.6%   5.9%       0.00%  \nAndreas Beck                17.3%   9.6%   3.4%       0.00%  \n(8)Andy Roddick             82.7%  71.1%  52.3%       2.71%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(7)David Ferrer             83.8%  59.7%  42.0%       1.80%  \nBenoit Paire                16.2%   5.3%   1.8%       0.00%  \nIvan Dodig                  49.2%  17.0%   8.5%       0.04%  \nRyan Harrison               50.8%  18.0%   9.3%       0.07%  \nCarlos Berlocq              28.6%   4.2%   0.5%       0.00%  \nKarol Beck                  71.4%  20.6%   5.2%       0.00%  \nAndrey Golubev              36.1%  24.6%   9.2%       0.04%  \n(26)Guillermo Garcia-Lopez  63.9%  50.5%  23.4%       0.35%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(22)Alexandr Dolgopolov     82.7%  70.5%  38.6%       1.21%  \nFernando Gonzalez           17.3%   9.6%   2.4%       0.00%  \nRik De Voest                72.0%  16.7%   3.8%       0.01%  \nRuben Ramirez Hidalgo       28.0%   3.2%   0.4%       0.00%  \nGrigor Dimitrov             75.1%  25.1%  11.0%       0.07%  \nCedrik-Marcel Stebe         24.9%   4.1%   1.0%       0.00%  \nGo Soeda                    18.0%   7.4%   2.4%       0.00%  \n(12)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga      82.0%  63.4%  40.5%       2.10%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(16)Nicolas Almagro         60.6%  32.7%  16.9%       0.19%  \nJarkko Nieminen             39.4%  17.3%   7.5%       0.04%  \nJohn Isner                  71.0%  39.5%  20.5%       0.24%  \nNicolas Mahut               29.0%  10.5%   3.5%       0.00%  \nSomdev Devvarman            63.0%  20.5%   8.2%       0.03%  \nDenis Gremelmayr            37.0%   8.2%   2.4%       0.00%  \nJuan Monaco                 47.6%  33.1%  17.7%       0.24%  \n(18)Mikhail Youzhny         52.4%  38.2%  23.2%       0.46%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(28)David Nalbandian        76.7%  58.3%  19.2%       0.53%  \nJulian Reister              23.3%  11.1%   1.6%       0.00%  \nFlorent Serra               53.1%  16.7%   2.5%       0.00%  \nAndreas Haider-Maurer       46.9%  13.8%   1.9%       0.00%  \nAdrian Mannarino            73.0%  17.0%   9.4%       0.12%  \nConor Niland                27.0%   2.9%   0.9%       0.00%  \nMikhail Kukushkin           13.5%   6.3%   3.0%       0.02%  \n(3)Roger Federer            86.5%  73.8%  61.4%      14.27%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(5)Robin Soderling          75.8%  52.9%  36.8%       3.13%  \nPhilipp Petzschner          24.2%  10.5%   4.8%       0.06%  \nKei Nishikori               57.3%  22.1%  11.6%       0.25%  \nLleyton Hewitt              42.7%  14.4%   6.8%       0.08%  \nIgor Andreev                56.6%  19.3%   5.6%       0.02%  \nTeymuraz Gabashvili         43.4%  11.9%   2.8%       0.00%  \nBernard Tomic               32.5%  19.2%   6.5%       0.06%  \n(29)Nikolay Davydenko       67.5%  49.6%  25.2%       1.28%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(20)Florian Mayer           83.0%  55.7%  33.4%       0.83%  \nDaniel Evans                17.0%   5.2%   1.3%       0.00%  \nXavier Malisse              53.4%  21.2%   9.4%       0.05%  \nMischa Zverev               46.6%  17.9%   7.3%       0.02%  \nErnests Gulbis              51.0%  24.1%  11.6%       0.07%  \nDmitry Tursunov             49.0%  22.4%   9.9%       0.06%  \nAlejandro Falla             27.8%  11.2%   3.8%       0.01%  \n(11)Jurgen Melzer           72.2%  42.3%  23.2%       0.43%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(13)Viktor Troicki          87.5%  56.2%  36.7%       0.74%  \nMaximo Gonzalez             12.5%   2.4%   0.5%       0.00%  \nYen-Hsun Lu                 35.6%  11.8%   5.0%       0.01%  \nTommy Robredo               64.4%  29.6%  17.2%       0.10%  \nRicardo Mello               41.9%  11.6%   2.9%       0.00%  \nFrank Dancevic              58.1%  20.6%   6.8%       0.01%  \nJames Ward                  36.7%  21.7%   8.3%       0.02%  \n(19)Michael Llodra          63.3%  46.0%  22.5%       0.26%  \n                                                             \nPlayer                        R64    R32    R16           W  \n(32)Marcos Baghdatis        79.3%  56.1%  17.8%       1.10%  \nJames Blake                 20.7%   8.7%   1.2%       0.00%  \nAndreas Seppi               49.1%  17.4%   3.1%       0.02%  \nAlbert Montanes             50.9%  17.8%   3.0%       0.03%  \nKevin Anderson              60.7%  10.8%   4.6%       0.04%  \nIllya Marchenko             39.3%   4.5%   1.5%       0.00%  \nJeremy Chardy               13.4%   8.2%   4.1%       0.09%  \n(2)Novak Djokovic           86.6%  76.5%  64.7%      21.58%<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After several days of delays in qualifying, the Wimbledon main draws are finally complete. \u00a0As expected, Novak Djokovic is the favorite, with a 21.6% chance of winning. \u00a0Federer is next, at 14.3%, and Nadal is close behind, at 13.6%. \u00a0It&#8217;s Rafa&#8217;s turn to line up against dark horse Juan Martin del Potro&#8211;they are positioned for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2011\/06\/19\/wimbledon-mens-draw-predictions\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Wimbledon Men&#8217;s Draw Predictions<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,122],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-wimbledon"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/387\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}