{"id":4212,"date":"2021-02-24T11:54:52","date_gmt":"2021-02-24T11:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4212"},"modified":"2021-02-24T11:54:52","modified_gmt":"2021-02-24T11:54:52","slug":"expected-points-feb-24-danielle-collins-leads-an-american-charge-in-adelaide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/24\/expected-points-feb-24-danielle-collins-leads-an-american-charge-in-adelaide\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, Feb. 24: Danielle Collins Leads an American Charge in Adelaide"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On today\u2019s episode: Collins ousts top-seed Ashleigh Barty down under, another teenager makes his presence known on the ATP tour, and Miami announces the pay cut awaiting their champions.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/368055\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 6. That\u2019s how many top ten upsets Danielle Collins has recorded in her career thus far. The latest scalp for the 27-year-old American was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>, who she upended in straight sets today in Adelaide. When Collins is on, she\u2019s on: All six of her top-ten wins have been straight-setters, including a 6-0 6-2 drubbing of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a> two years ago in Melbourne, and a 6-1 6-1 sail past <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BelindaBencic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Belinda Bencic<\/a> to start the 2020 season in Brisbane. You might be noticing another pattern: Five of her six big upsets\u2014as well as her only grand slam semi-final&#8211;have come in Australia, while she is only 1-8 against the top ten in the northern hemisphere. Collins is only the tip of the arrow for American tennis in Adelaide this week: both Coco Gauff and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ShelbyRogers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shelby Rogers<\/a> also knocked out seeds en route to the quarterfinals. Collins will have another challenge on her hands, facing <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IgaSwiatek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iga Swiatek<\/a> in tomorrow\u2019s quarters, while Gauff and Rogers draw each other, guaranteeing the USA a place in the semis.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 335, the ATP ranking of 19-year-old <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JuanManuelCerundolo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Juan Manuel Cerundolo<\/a>, an Argentine who won his first tour-level match last night. It is only his 8th career main-draw victory above the Futures level, but his place in the Cordoba event is no undeserved home-town wild card. He earned his spot with three wins in qualifying, and backed it up with the straight set win in the first round against Brazilian #119 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ThiagoSeybothWild\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Thiago Seyboth Wild<\/a>. 19 years old is younger than it used to be in men\u2019s tennis: at 335 in the world, Cerundolo is the 8th-highest ranked teenager in the world, and his run this week will move him up at least one or two more spots on that list. There\u2019s a lot of space separating the Argentine from the best teenager in men\u2019s tennis, however. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JannikSinner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jannik Sinner<\/a> is only three months older, already ranked 34th in the world, and according to Tennis Abstract Elo ratings, the favorite to win this week\u2019s tour-level event in Montpellier. Cerundolo will start to get a feel for what it takes to play at that level tomorrow, when he takes on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MiomirKecmanovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Miomir Kecmanovic<\/a>, a Serbian 21-year-old ranked just a few places behind Sinner.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 78%. 78% is the prize money cut for men\u2019s and women\u2019s champions at the Miami Open next month. In 2019, winners received over $1.3 million apiece, compared to $300,000 this year. The tournament wasn\u2019t held in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, and it is pandemic-related restrictions that account for the pay cut. 78% is roughly equivalent to the cut in spectator numbers, which will be held to about 20% of normal across the grounds, and 15% on the main court. Like other high-profile tournaments since the tours restarted, Miami has dealt with their limited financial capacity by altering not just the amount of prize money but its distribution. First-round losers take a hit as well, but only about 40%, from about $16,000 in 2019 to $10,000 this year. As tournaments around the world announce their plans to move forward in 2021 with limited or no spectators, players can expect a steady stream of announcements like this one.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. On today\u2019s episode: Collins ousts top-seed Ashleigh Barty down under, another teenager makes his presence known on the ATP tour, and Miami announces the pay cut awaiting their champions. Scroll down for a transcript. You &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/24\/expected-points-feb-24-danielle-collins-leads-an-american-charge-in-adelaide\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, Feb. 24: Danielle Collins Leads an American Charge in Adelaide<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}