{"id":4267,"date":"2021-03-09T09:43:21","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T09:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4267"},"modified":"2021-03-09T09:43:21","modified_gmt":"2021-03-09T09:43:21","slug":"expected-points-march-9-andrey-rublev-master-of-the-atp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/09\/expected-points-march-9-andrey-rublev-master-of-the-atp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, March 9: Andrey Rublev, Master of the ATP 500"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Rublev continues his winning ways just outside of the sport\u2019s biggest stages, Misaki Doi is more than the usual lucky loser, and Frances Tiafoe comes through a nailbiter in Santiago.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/379288\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 4, the number of titles won <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreyRublev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrey Rublev<\/a> at the ATP 500-level since the restart last August. His victory over qualifier <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MartonFucsovics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marton Fucsovics<\/a> in Sunday\u2019s Rotterdam final extended his win streak in this tournament category to an even 20. Four is also the total number of 500s played since the restart\u2014the Russian has run the table, with previous championships on multiple surfaces, in Hamburg, St. Petersburg, and Vienna. Last week\u2019s title was the most dominant of the lot, as Rublev lost only a single set, and scored a minor upset with a straight set semi-final win over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a>, who had beaten him in their last two meetings. The 23-year-old\u2019s latest trophy is good for bragging rights and a tidy 107,000 euro, but he\u2019ll need to do more before his ranking will budge. He remains ranked 8th on the ATP computer, where he has been since October, and while Tennis Abstract Elo likes him better, at number 4, the Rotterdam title merely narrowed the gap between him and #3 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a>. Rublev is entered in Doha this week, but if the trend holds, he\u2019ll be even more dangerous in Dubai next week\u2014that\u2019s the next ATP 500 on the calendar.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 3, the number of times this season that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MisakiDoi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Misaki Doi<\/a> has reached a WTA main draw as a lucky loser. This week in Dubai makes it three in a row, including Adelaide and Doha. Even with several months remaining, she is one of only about 25 women to have gotten into three events in a single season as a lucky loser, and only one\u2014<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKamstra\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kamstra<\/a> in 1994\u2014has lucked into four. What makes Doi\u2019s last month even more remarkable is that she has won her first-round match in all three events\u2014something no woman has done before. Lucky losers are the ultimate underdogs\u2014they weren\u2019t good enough to qualify, they just lost a match, and they are almost always ranked lower than their main draw opponents. As lucky\u2014and good\u2014as Doi has been, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MartinaTrevisan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Martina Trevisan<\/a> was even more fortunate. The Roland Garros quarter-finalist also lost in Dubai qualifying and got into the main draw as a lucky loser, replacing 7th-seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VictoriaAzarenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Victoria Azarenka<\/a> and receiving Vika\u2019s first-round bye. While Doi needed to win a match just to earn a second-round encounter with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IgaSwiatek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iga Swiatek<\/a>, Trevisan got a bit of rest and faces unseeded <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CarolineGarcia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caroline Garcia<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 7, the digit that dominated the scoreline last night between Frances Tiafoe and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NicolasJarry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicolas Jarry<\/a> in the first round in Santiago. After two hours and fifty two minutes, Tiafoe finally broke away, winning 7-6, 6-7, 7-6. Remarkably, all three tiebreaks were nailbiters, each going to 7-all before the American won the last two points. It was close, with only four break point chances in 36 service games, but it wasn\u2019t quite as close as the scoreline suggests. Tiafoe won 52% of total points, tallying 127 to Jarry\u2019s 115. He also won 32% of return points against Jarry\u2019s 24%. Still, that didn\u2019t prevent the Chilean from coming within two points of victory. All these breakers are even more remarkable coming on a clay court\u2014there have been 190 best-of-three matches that ended in three tiebreaks since the turn of the century, but Tiafoe-Jarry was only the 30th on dirt. Fortunately for the American, he probably won\u2019t need quite so much time in his next match against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FacundoBagnis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facundo Bagnis<\/a>. He has won both of their previous meetings, playing only one tiebreak in five sets. They faced off last week in Buenos Aires, where Tiafoe won 6-1 6-3.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Rublev continues his winning ways just outside of the sport\u2019s biggest stages, Misaki Doi is more than the usual lucky loser, and Frances Tiafoe comes through a nailbiter in Santiago. Scroll down for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/09\/expected-points-march-9-andrey-rublev-master-of-the-atp-500\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, March 9: Andrey Rublev, Master of the ATP 500<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4267"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4267\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}