{"id":4282,"date":"2021-03-12T11:11:09","date_gmt":"2021-03-12T11:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4282"},"modified":"2021-03-12T11:11:09","modified_gmt":"2021-03-12T11:11:09","slug":"expected-points-march-12-when-match-point-isnt-quite-enough","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/12\/expected-points-march-12-when-match-point-isnt-quite-enough\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, March 12: When Match Point Isn\u2019t Quite Enough"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: An unconverted break point puts Roger Federer\u2019s comeback on pause, Elise Mertens stops the momentum of another lower-ranked player, and Andrey Rublev rests his way into the Doha semi-finals.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/384187\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 23, the number of career losses in which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a> has held a match point. The latest near-miss was yesterday\u2019s match in Doha against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NikolozBasilashvili\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nikoloz Basilashvili<\/a>, the hard-hitting Georgian currently ranked 42nd. Federer earned a break point with Basilashvili serving at 5-4 in the deciding set, but couldn\u2019t convert, then failed to hold his own serve and lost the third set, 7-5. The ATP doesn\u2019t maintain exhaustive historical records of losses from match point, but enough fans keep count that we know that Fed\u2019s 23 losses are more than the tally from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndyMurray\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andy Murray<\/a> combined. Along with some of Roger\u2019s famous failures to convert break points, these are tough pills for fans to swallow. There is a silver lining, however: Earning break points is a sign of solid return play, and earning match points tells us that the match was a near draw. With that tenuous interpretation, we can say that Federer has not only won 1,243 career matches\u2014he has almost won another 23. <\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 31, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EliseMertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elise Mertens<\/a>\u2019s win total against lower-ranked players since the restart last summer. The Belgian is 31-4 when the computer ranking says she should win, and one of those four losses was at last year\u2019s US Open against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VictoriaAzarenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Victoria Azarenka<\/a> when Vika was playing as well as anyone. Yesterday Mertens drew <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JessicaPegula\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jessica Pegula<\/a>, the surging American who just upset <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarolinaPliskova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karolina Pliskova<\/a> for the second time in as many weeks. The Belgian stopped the momentum, dropping the first set 7-5 but coming back to win with a 6-0 score in the decider. The knock on Mertens is that she doesn\u2019t manage to raise her game against stronger opponents. Two years ago in Doha, she gave a glimpse of her potential, beating <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KikiBertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kiki Bertens<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SimonaHalep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simona Halep<\/a> in consecutive rounds. But she lost her next 8 straight matches against top-tenners. Her semi-final opponent today is not ranked in the top ten, though she ought to be: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=GarbineMuguruza\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Garbine Muguruza<\/a> is one of the hottest players in the game, and will give us some idea of whether Mertens is ready to rise to a new challenge.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 398, the number of minutes spent on court this week by Taylor Fritz. The 23-year-old American has worked hard to get to the Doha semi-finals, needed two and a half hours and a third-set tiebreak to get past <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DavidGoffin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">David Goffin<\/a>, and another tight three-setter yesterday with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DenisShapovalov\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Denis Shapovalov<\/a>. 398 minutes\u2014about six and a half hours\u2014isn\u2019t remarkable in and of itself, except in how it compares to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreyRublev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrey Rublev<\/a>\u2019s zero-minute route to the same destination. The Russian got a first-round bye, then a walkover from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RichardGasquet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Richard Gasquet<\/a> in the second round \u2026 and then a walkover from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MartonFucsovics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marton Fucsovics<\/a> in yesterday\u2019s quarters. Consecutive walkovers are common enough in doubles draws at lower levels of the tour, but only because many players prioritize singles. Rublev\u2019s semi-final opponent, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RobertoBautistaAgut\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roberto Bautista Agut<\/a>, better hope that a bit of rustiness will slow down the Russian, because at this type of event, nothing else will. Rublev hasn\u2019t lost a match at the ATP 250 level since September of 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: An unconverted break point puts Roger Federer\u2019s comeback on pause, Elise Mertens stops the momentum of another lower-ranked player, and Andrey Rublev rests his way into the Doha semi-finals. Scroll down for a &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/12\/expected-points-march-12-when-match-point-isnt-quite-enough\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, March 12: When Match Point Isn\u2019t Quite Enough<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}