{"id":4289,"date":"2021-03-16T09:23:45","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T09:23:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4289"},"modified":"2021-03-16T09:23:45","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T09:23:45","slug":"expected-points-march-16-russians-in-command-in-st-petersburg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/16\/expected-points-march-16-russians-in-command-in-st-petersburg\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, March 16: Russians in Command in St. Petersburg"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: The St. Petersburg draw leaves little room for foreign challengers, Cristian Garin prefers to keep his clay court points short, and the upcoming Miami Open will feature a global assortment of IMG clients.\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/387529\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 74%, the probability that a Russian player will win the title at the WTA 500 event in St. Petersburg this week. St. Petersburg\u2019s awkward spot on the schedule has often meant it has a weaker field than other tournaments at the same level, and this year is even more extreme. The top two seeds are #34 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EkaterinaAlexandrova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ekaterina Alexandrova<\/a> and #36 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeronikaKudermetova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veronika Kudermetova<\/a>, and five of the eight seeds are Russian. The 74% figure, based on Tennis Abstract Elo ratings and reflecting the handful of first-round results from Monday, is due in large part of those seeds, though there are another 6 home-country players in the draw. Still, the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy hasn\u2019t seen a Russian champion since 2005, and there\u2019s no guarantee it will this week. The woman to watch among the foreign contingent is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ClaraTauson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Clara Tauson<\/a>, the Dane who qualified and won in Lyon two weeks ago. The 18-year-old qualified again this week, and she\u2019ll try to score an opening-round upset today against eighth-seed Daria Kasatkina.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 3.4, the average rally length in Sunday\u2019s Santiago final between Cristian Garin and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FacundoBagnis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Facundo Bagnis<\/a>. 3.4 shots per point is unusually low for a clay court event, and can partly be explained by the altitude in Santiago as well as an imperfect surface that created a few winners from otherwise routine shots. Another factor is Garin\u2019s aggressive gamestyle, at least relative to other dirtballers. He has the ability to hit aces\u2014including 14 of them in this match\u2014and finishes many other points with a plus-one winner. While his title match in Cordoba last year was a more typical 5.4 shots per point, Sunday\u2019s 3.4 is hardly unfamiliar territory. When the Chilean beat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=GianlucaMager\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gianluca Mager<\/a> in the 2020 Rio de Janeiro final, the average rally was only 2.6 shots. That\u2019s not quite a record, thanks to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=IvoKarlovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ivo Karlovic<\/a> reaching a final round in high-altitude Bogota, but it\u2019s extremely unusual. 22 of Garin\u2019s 23 professional finals have come on clay courts, so no matter how fast the points, it\u2019s clear he prefers the slower surface.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 2, the number of main draw wild cards given to Americans for the Miami Open. The total number of wild cards announced yesterday was 12, a reminder that Miami\u2019s organizers don\u2019t play by the usual rule book of handing free entries to a tired list of local names. The tournament is owned by IMG, the global sports conglomerate, and it tends to favor the players that their agents represent. Among those are up-and-coming European men Carlos Alcaraz, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JackDraper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jack Draper<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=HugoGaston\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hugo Gaston<\/a>, and women\u2019s prospects <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnnaKalinskaya\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anna Kalinskaya<\/a>, Wang Xiyu, and Wang Xinyu. The Miami main draw will feature 96 men and 96 women, so plenty of Americans will still be on hand, and IMG is sure to offer qualifying wild cards to more players from the USA. It isn\u2019t the best look for tennis that a top-tier tournament can hand out entries to business associates, but for fans, it\u2019s a great opportunity to see players who might be within a few years of stardom.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: The St. Petersburg draw leaves little room for foreign challengers, Cristian Garin prefers to keep his clay court points short, and the upcoming Miami Open will feature a global assortment of IMG clients. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/16\/expected-points-march-16-russians-in-command-in-st-petersburg\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, March 16: Russians in Command in St. Petersburg<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4289"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4289\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}