{"id":4298,"date":"2021-03-17T10:25:21","date_gmt":"2021-03-17T10:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4298"},"modified":"2021-03-17T10:25:21","modified_gmt":"2021-03-17T10:25:21","slug":"expected-points-march-17-a-breakthrough-win-for-lorenzo-musetti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/17\/expected-points-march-17-a-breakthrough-win-for-lorenzo-musetti\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, March 17: A Breakthrough Win for Lorenzo Musetti"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: The Italian teen scores his first top-ten win, the WTA Monterrey field has an improbable favorite, and fans will have to wait for clay season for their next glimpse of Rafael Nadal or Dominic Thiem. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/389880\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 19, the age of Italian prospect <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LorenzoMusetti\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lorenzo Musetti<\/a>, who scored his first-ever top ten win yesterday. Musetti qualified for the ATP 500 draw in Acapulco, and overcame a tough opening-round test by knocking out third-seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DiegoSebastianSchwartzman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diego Schwartzman<\/a> in three sets. It was even closer than the 6-3 2-6 6-4 scoreline appeared, as the Italian won only 49.1% of total points played. Still, it\u2019s good enough to advance, which is more than some of the other up-and-comers in Acapulco can say for themselves. 17-year-old Carlos Alcaraz went out quietly to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderZverev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Zverev<\/a>, snatching fewer than one in seven of the second seed\u2019s first-serve points. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=BrandonNakashima\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brandon Nakashima<\/a>, the 19-year-old American, did better, but ultimately feel in a third-set tiebreak to countryman Frances Tiafoe. Joining Musetti in the round of 16 is another 19 year old, wild card <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SebastianKorda\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sebastian Korda<\/a>, who knocked out <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarinCilic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marin Cilic<\/a> yesterday. That sets up today\u2019s marquee match, between Korda and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=FelixAugerAliassime\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Felix Auger Aliassime<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 29.6%, the Elo-based probability that 8th seeded American <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnnLi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ann Li<\/a> will win the title in Monterrey this week. Li was one of the few seeds to survive the first-round carnage, as #1 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SloaneStephens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sloane Stephens<\/a> and #5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=HeatherWatson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Heather Watson<\/a> fell to lucky losers, and #2 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NadiaPodoroska\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nadia Podoroska<\/a> and #6 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AnnaBlinkova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anna Blinkova<\/a> lost to qualifiers. With Americans <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JessicaPegula\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jessica Pegula<\/a> and Coco Gauff dominating headlines this season, the 20-year-old Li has flown under the radar, and ranked 72nd on the WTA computer, she\u2019s hardly the typical image of a favorite. But she began the season with a six-match winning streak, going unbeaten in the unfinished Grampians Trophy event, then winning her first two rounds at the Australian Open before losing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a>. According to an Elo-based metric I devised using only 2021 results, she has had the 19th best season of anyone on tour\u2014just behind that of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SaraSorribesTormo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sara Sorribes Tormo<\/a>, last week\u2019s Guadalajara winner who is the favorite to reach the final in the other half of the Monterrey draw.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 9, the combined number of matches won this season by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DominicThiem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dominic Thiem<\/a>, who will take that total into the clay season next month. Thiem lost yesterday to 81st-ranked qualifier Lloyd Harris, the latest of many underdogs to knock the Austrian out of a lower-level event. Thiem reached the title match of last November\u2019s tour finals, but hasn\u2019t beaten a top-25 player since. He and Nadal are both skipping the Miami Open, the top of a growing list of withdrawals from the Masters 1000 event. Rafa will switch to the clay having played only one hard court event\u2014the Australian Open, when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a> came back to beat him in a five-set quarter-final. The King of Clay continues to manage a back issue, while Thiem deals with a nagging foot problem. The European clay court season will be almost unrecognizable if these injuries keep 2019\u2019s Roland Garros finalists from playing at their best.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: The Italian teen scores his first top-ten win, the WTA Monterrey field has an improbable favorite, and fans will have to wait for clay season for their next glimpse of Rafael Nadal or &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/17\/expected-points-march-17-a-breakthrough-win-for-lorenzo-musetti\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, March 17: A Breakthrough Win for Lorenzo Musetti<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}