{"id":4348,"date":"2021-03-31T09:32:45","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T09:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4348"},"modified":"2021-03-31T09:32:45","modified_gmt":"2021-03-31T09:32:45","slug":"expected-points-march-31-sinner-and-bublik-meet-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/31\/expected-points-march-31-sinner-and-bublik-meet-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, March 31: Sinner and Bublik Meet Again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Next week\u2019s ATP rankings will feature a new American #1, Ashleigh Barty closes out Aryna Sabalenka in style, and Alexander Bublik needs to figure out how to return Jannik Sinner\u2019s serve.\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/402567\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today&#8217;s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 29, the likely ATP ranking next Monday of Taylor Fritz, who would be the top-ranked American man. Fritz will take over the throne from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JohnIsner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Isner<\/a>, who has held a spot in the top 30 since 2011, but lost yesterday to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RobertoBautistaAgut\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roberto Bautista Agut<\/a>. In failing to defend his finalist points from the 2019 Miami Open, the big man will fall to around #38. All told, the Miami round of 16 was a bleak one for American players. The only US woman to make it that far, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JessicaPegula\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jessica Pegula<\/a>, failed to convert six match points and lost to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaSakkari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maria Sakkari<\/a>, while Isner, Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe lost Bautista Agut, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlexanderBublik\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alexander Bublik<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DaniilMedvedev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daniil Medvedev<\/a>, respectively. All is not quite lost, though. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SebastianKorda\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sebastian Korda<\/a> scored a second straight upset, defeating <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DiegoSebastianSchwartzman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diego Schwartzman<\/a> yesterday, securing the home country a token representative in the quarters. Korda also has a tiny chance of becoming the American #1 on Monday\u2014if he wins the Miami title, he\u2019ll overtake Fritz in the rankings, 1861 points to 1855.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 9, the number of consecutive points that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a> won to finish off <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a> in the Miami quarters. In one of the many great WTA matchups that fans have missed since 2019, the women battled through a 67-minute second set that Sabalenka ultimately won in a tiebreak, forcing a decider. Even before her demoralizing nine-point streak, Barty played better at the big moments. She faced 7 break points in the match and saved them all, while converting two of her four opportunities on the imposing Belarussian\u2019s serve. Out of six total meetings, the only previous time these two women went three sets was in their first encounter, in the opening round at the 2018 Australian Open. The Australian narrowly advanced that day, but she has nonetheless come a long way since. In that first match, she won barely 60% of first serve points, a mark she hasn\u2019t failed to clear since a 2019 loss in Cincinnati. Yesterday\u2019s 73% is right in line with her average rate of first serve points won, one of the best marks on tour and a big reason she remains at the top of the ranking list.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s third and final number is 26.2%, the percentage of return points won by Alexander Bublik against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JannikSinner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jannik Sinner<\/a> when they met 15 days ago in Dubai. They meet again in today\u2019s Miami quarter-finals. At 23 years old, Bublik is still a rising star on tour, but he has already been eclipsed in the rankings by the 19-year-old Italian, who beat him in their only previous meeting. After the match, Bublik expressed wonder at Sinner\u2019s focus on tennis\u2014at his age, according to the Kazakh, he was drinking a beer. That\u2019s one explanation for Bublik\u2019s futility on return, the part of his game that is likely to keep him from joining the tour\u2019s elite. 26.2% on return is worse than the average rate of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ReillyOpelka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reilly Opelka<\/a>, the weakest returner among the top 50. Bublik is usually better than that, though not much, and it\u2019s tough to forget his helplessness in the Singapore final last month when he won a mere six return points. To win today\u2019s revenge match against his young Italian foe, he\u2019ll need to defend much better\u2014in the 24 matches the 19-year-old has lost on tour, his opponents have always won at least one-third of Sinner\u2019s service points.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Next week\u2019s ATP rankings will feature a new American #1, Ashleigh Barty closes out Aryna Sabalenka in style, and Alexander Bublik needs to figure out how to return Jannik Sinner\u2019s serve. Scroll down &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/03\/31\/expected-points-march-31-sinner-and-bublik-meet-again\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, March 31: Sinner and Bublik Meet Again<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4348\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}