{"id":4375,"date":"2021-04-12T07:16:40","date_gmt":"2021-04-12T07:16:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4375"},"modified":"2021-04-12T07:16:40","modified_gmt":"2021-04-12T07:16:40","slug":"expected-points-april-12-a-new-russian-1-spoils-the-party-in-charleston","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/12\/expected-points-april-12-a-new-russian-1-spoils-the-party-in-charleston\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, April 12: A New Russian #1 Spoils the Party in Charleston"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Local heroes nearly run the table at tour events, Veronika Kudermetova wins her first title, and the draw gods in Monte Carlo deliver a tasty first-rounder.\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/413952\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 3, the number of men\u2019s and women\u2019s tour-level titles won yesterday by players in their home countries. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LorenzoSonego\">Lorenzo Sonego<\/a>, one of seven Italians in the main draw at the Sardinia Open, won a three-hour battle with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LasloDjere\">Laslo Djere<\/a> in the first of Sunday\u2019s finals. Next, 15th-ranked <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PabloCarrenoBusta\">Pablo Carreno Busta<\/a> flew the Spanish flag in Marbella\u2014beating countrymen <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MarioVilellaMartinez\">Mario Vilella Martinez<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AlbertRamos\">Albert Ramos<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JaumeMunar\">Jaume Munar<\/a> in three of his four matches. The final clay-court patriot was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MariaCamilaOsorioSerrano\">Maria Camila Osorio Serrano<\/a>, a 19-year-old Colombian who outlasted <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=TamaraZidansek\">Tamara Zidansek<\/a> in her first career WTA championship match. The odd tournament out was Charleston, where according to my forecast, the 19 American women in the main draw combined for a 14% pre-tournament chance at the title. But only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SloaneStephens\">Sloane Stephens<\/a> and Coco Gauff reached the quarters, and neither won a set once they got there. At least the US women will have another crack at it\u2014Charleston hosts another tour event this week, with the home country accounting for 12 of the 32 main-draw slots. Perhaps most important for the odds of a local hero, yesterday\u2019s victor <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeronikaKudermetova\">Veronika Kudermetova<\/a> is sitting this one out.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 7. Kudermetova became the 7th Russian woman with a tour-level title to her credit yesterday, after steamrolling the Charleston draw by winning six matches without losing more than four games in any single set. The 23-year-old, whose birthday is later this month, remains far from the career totals of countrywomen such as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SvetlanaKuznetsova\">Svetlana Kuznetsova<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeraZvonareva\">Vera Zvonareva<\/a>, or even her peer Daria Kasatkina, who has already won a pair of titles this year. But it is Kudermetova who stands as the top-ranked Russian according to the WTA computer, at a new career high of #29. According to Tennis Abstract Elo, there\u2019s plenty of room to go higher: She entered the week ranked 27th, and with another half-dozen wins tacked on, the updated ratings released later today will be even more optimistic. The next item on Kudermetova\u2019s to-do list is toppling <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a>, who has won all three of their career meetings, and is the only woman to beat her twice in 2021. If the Russian\u2019s performance in Charleston is any indication, the upcoming clay season may well be her chance to exact revenge.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 36, the combined total of 2021 match wins for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AslanKaratsev\">Aslan Karatsev<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=LorenzoMusetti\">Lorenzo Musetti<\/a>, who face off in the Monte Carlo first round today. Many of Musetti\u2019s 20 wins came at Challenger level, but the draw delivered a first-time head-to-head between two of the season\u2019s breakout stars. The Russian, who reached the Australian Open semifinals and won in Dubai, is attempted to bounce back from his one hiccup of the campaign, a 67-minute loss in Miami to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=SebastianKorda\">Sebastian Korda<\/a>. Musetti, who reached another career-high ranking of 84 today, has already gotten warmed up on clay, with a quarter-final showing in Sardinia. While Karatsev\u2019s career highlights have come on hard courts, he is no slouch on dirt\u2014he began his rankings climb after last summer\u2019s restart with three consecutive Challenger finals in Prague and Ostrava, winning two of them. It\u2019s a rare case where the match of the day also promises to provide a highlight of the following round\u2014whoever emerges from the Russian-Italian clash will provide a tough second-round test for fourth seed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Local heroes nearly run the table at tour events, Veronika Kudermetova wins her first title, and the draw gods in Monte Carlo deliver a tasty first-rounder. Scroll down for a transcript. You can &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/12\/expected-points-april-12-a-new-russian-1-spoils-the-party-in-charleston\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, April 12: A New Russian #1 Spoils the Party in Charleston<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4375\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}