{"id":4412,"date":"2021-04-23T07:41:33","date_gmt":"2021-04-23T07:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4412"},"modified":"2021-04-23T07:41:33","modified_gmt":"2021-04-23T07:41:33","slug":"expected-points-april-23-elina-svitolina-turns-the-tables","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/23\/expected-points-april-23-elina-svitolina-turns-the-tables\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, April 23: Elina Svitolina Turns the Tables"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Elise Mertens is a favorite\u2019s favorite in Istanbul, Barcelona\u2019s final eight is dauntingly strong, and Svitolina tries to do to Petra Kvitova what she\u2019s already done to Angelique Kerber.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/425136\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 5, the number of times that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=EliseMertens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elise Mertens<\/a> has entered a tour-level event as the top seed. She\u2019s the favorite in Istanbul this week, with a quarter-final on tap today against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KaterinaSiniakova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Katerina Siniakova<\/a>. The Tennis Abstract forecast gives Mertens a 32% chance of winning the title; the biggest threat to upset her is 3rd-seed and recent Charleston champ <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=VeronikaKudermetova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Veronika Kudermetova<\/a>, who has a 23% likelihood chance and could meet Mertens in the semis. The book on the Belgian says you can count on her to dispatch lower-ranked opponents, as she\u2019s done in 35 of 40 opportunities since the restart last summer. But in her previous four outings with a #1 next to her name, she\u2019s only taken a single title\u2014in Rabat back in 2018. Since then, she\u2019s lost twice in the quarters and once in the second round\u2014all to opponents ranked below her, of course. Arriving as the favorite shouldn\u2019t affect one\u2019s performance, though players sometimes say it does, like <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AndreyRublev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrey Rublev<\/a> in the Miami semi-finals last month. Istanbul is a bit further off the beaten track, and with most eyes on Stuttgart, Mertens has the opportunity to do what she does best\u2014win a few matches against players outside the top 20. <\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 1888, the average clay-court Elo rating of the eight quarter-finalists in Barcelona this week. It\u2019s a meaningless number out of context, but consider that the equivalent average quarter-finalist rating last week, in Monte Carlo, was 32 points lower, at 1846. Barcelona is a mere 500-series event, compared to the Masters-level 1000 points on offer in Monte Carlo, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> headed east for Belgrade instead of following <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a> and company to Barcelona. But most of the stars went to Spain, and they\u2019ve done a better job at advancing through the draw this week. Nadal, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a>, and Andrey Rublev are the three guys who made the final eight at both events, and in Barcelona they\u2019re joined by three more clay-Elo top-tenners, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=DiegoSebastianSchwartzman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Diego Schwartzman<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=JannikSinner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jannik Sinner<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PabloCarrenoBusta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Carreno Busta<\/a>. Rafa was lucky to draw the biggest surprise still standing, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=CameronNorrie\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cameron Norrie<\/a>, who brings up the Elo caboose with a clay-court rating of only 1616. Should he win the lefty-lefty battle as expected, he can count on a much tougher foe in both the semi-final and final. Whoever claims the 500 ranking points for the winner on Sunday will have truly earned them.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 7, the number of consecutive victories for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ElinaSvitolina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elina Svitolina<\/a> against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AngeliqueKerber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Angelique Kerber<\/a>. The two women, who met in the Stuttgart second round yesterday, have faced off a remarkable 14 times, with nine matches going the way of Ukrainian. Kerber is six and half years older, so she had the advantage early on, winning their first two contests as well as five of the first seven. Since Svitolina turned 22, it\u2019s been one-way traffic, with the younger player taking the last 11 sets they\u2019ve played. Svitolina is hoping to pull a similar trick on her next opponent, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=PetraKvitova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Petra Kvitova<\/a>, who won seven in a row against her between 2014 and 2018. This head-to-head stands decidedly in the Czech\u2019s favor, at 7 to 3, but just like with Kerber, Svitolina is making up ground on her veteran rival. She\u2019s won their last two meetings, including a three-set nail-biter in Miami last month. The Tennis Abstract forecast says Kvitova is the narrow favorite, while the Tennis Abstract proprietor wouldn\u2019t dare pick one over the other.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Elise Mertens is a favorite\u2019s favorite in Istanbul, Barcelona\u2019s final eight is dauntingly strong, and Svitolina tries to do to Petra Kvitova what she\u2019s already done to Angelique Kerber. Scroll down for a &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/23\/expected-points-april-23-elina-svitolina-turns-the-tables\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, April 23: Elina Svitolina Turns the Tables<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4412"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4412\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}