{"id":4414,"date":"2021-04-26T07:33:45","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T07:33:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/?p=4414"},"modified":"2021-04-26T07:33:45","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T07:33:45","slug":"expected-points-april-26-a-blockbuster-weekend-on-european-clay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/26\/expected-points-april-26-a-blockbuster-weekend-on-european-clay\/","title":{"rendered":"Expected Points, April 26: A Blockbuster Weekend on European Clay"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected Points<\/strong>, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up today: Aslan Karatsev climbs another rung on the ladder, Rafael Nadal conquers Stefanos Tsitsipas\u2014and yet another historic achievement, and Ashleigh Barty soaks up the power in an up-and-down final.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scroll down for a transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"castos-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/601b036c283f30-50244448.castos.com\/player\/427916\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"100%\" height=\"150\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can subscribe on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\">iTunes<\/a>, Spotify, Stitcher, and elsewhere in the podcast universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Music: <a href=\"http:\/\/dig.ccmixter.org\/files\/admiralbob77\/63197\">Love is the Chase<\/a> by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Expected Points podcast is still a work in progress, so please let me know what you think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> <iframe allow=\"autoplay *; encrypted-media *; fullscreen *\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"450\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:660px;overflow:hidden;background:transparent;\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/expected-points\/id1552064903\"> <\/p><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rough transcript of today\u2019s episode:<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The first number is 1216, the number of shots hit by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NovakDjokovic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Novak Djokovic<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AslanKaratsev\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aslan Karatsev<\/a> in their Belgrade semi-final match on Saturday. A clay-court 250 in April is hardly the usual context for one of the best matches of the year, but every 2021 year-in-review will mention this one. Djokovic remains the best player in the world, and one of the best on clay, while Karatsev, a 27-year-old ranked outside the top 200 a year ago, has been the story of the ATP season. The Russian\u2019s surprise success had entirely taken place on hard courts, including a semi-final run in Australia and a title in Dubai, and his style of hitting winners from anywhere, to anywhere, seems better suited to a faster surface. In 3 hours and 26 minutes, Karatsev proved otherwise and overcame the world #1, hitting 49 winners\u2014more than twice as many as Djokovic\u2014while demonstrating a patience that was rarely necessary in Melbourne. He fell just short in yesterday\u2019s final, losing a third-set tiebreak to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=MatteoBerrettini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini<\/a>, but as a whole, Karatsev\u2019s week definitely goes down in the win column.<\/p>\n<p>Our second number is 452, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rafael Nadal<\/a>\u2019s career victory total on clay. The 452nd was his answer to Djokovic\u2019s marathon on Saturday, a 3 hour, 40 minute final against <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=StefanosTsitsipas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stefanos Tsitsipas<\/a> in yesterday\u2019s Barcelona title match. The career tally isn\u2019t just another big number to remind us how thoroughly Nadal has dominated his competition in April and May every year. 452 is one greater than the combined total of Djokovic and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=RogerFederer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roger Federer<\/a>. Novak is the second-best clay-court player of their generation, and Fed has been at it for longer than either, so this is no mere trivia. Surpassing the duo was probably far from Rafa\u2019s mind as he fought off 11 of Tsitsipas\u2019s 13 break points yesterday, but fans will surely embrace the latest tidbit that illustrates the vast gap between the Spaniard and the pack. By the time he\u2019s done, the only clay-court records Nadal won\u2019t hold are the ones that modern tennis effectively blocks, like <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=GuillermoVilas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Guillermo Vilas<\/a>\u2019s 681 career wins on the surface. I\u2019m not saying he couldn\u2019t catch Vilas, just that he probably won\u2019t stick around long enough to win Barcelona\u2014as Tsitsipas joked in his runner-up speech\u201428 times.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s third and final number is 1.1, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=AshleighBarty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ashleigh Barty<\/a>\u2019s ratio of winners to unforced errors in her final-round victory in Stuttgart yesterday over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=ArynaSabalenka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aryna Sabalenka<\/a>. The scoreline of 3-6 6-0 6-3 makes the match sound scratchier than it was, though admittedly, the Belarussian was even more unstable than usual. The world #1 took her medicine in the opening set, watching Sabalenka\u2019s winners go by, then reversed the momentum with a bagel set in which she hit 9 winners against only 3 unforced. The final set was the most closely fought, though it was never really in doubt after the Australian raced to a 3-0 lead. Skeptics of the notion that Barty is suddenly an elite-level clay player still have plenty to work with\u2014three of her four matches this week went three sets, two of them against Sabalenka and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=KarolinaPliskova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Karolina Pliskova<\/a>, women with their own issues on the dirt. But the record book is clear\u2014dating back to her 2019 French Open title, Barty has an 11-match winning streak on the European clay, and a little more breathing room between herself and #2 on the ranking list, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/cgi-bin\/player.cgi?p=NaomiOsaka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Naomi Osaka<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail\"><a href=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/159.203.141.169\/tennisabstract\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/epts_logo.jpg 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expected Points, my new short, daily podcast, highlights three numbers to illustrate stats, trends, and interesting trivia around the sport. Up today: Aslan Karatsev climbs another rung on the ladder, Rafael Nadal conquers Stefanos Tsitsipas\u2014and yet another historic achievement, and Ashleigh Barty soaks up the power in an up-and-down final. Scroll down for a transcript. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/2021\/04\/26\/expected-points-april-26-a-blockbuster-weekend-on-european-clay\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Expected Points, April 26: A Blockbuster Weekend on European Clay<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-expected-points-podcast"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4414\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tennisabstract.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}